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BossHog

A surprisingly complex scenario in the western Pacific over the last few days is starting to resolve itself and looks like the focus is now on

 

90W which is currently around  141E 11N (southwest of Guam and northeast of Palau):

 

 

post-5791-0-03096300-1477996921_thumb.gif

 

 

post-5791-0-51618600-1477997566_thumb.gif

 

 

Here's the most recent forecast track from JMA:

 

post-5791-0-13407500-1477996981.png

Edited by broden
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BossHog

post-5791-0-18311800-1478038835_thumb.gif

 

91W on the left and 90W on the right.

 

It should be pointed out that neither is threatening with destructive winds at the moment, though the former could dump a lot of rain shortly, especially around Samar and the Eastern Visayas.

 

These are not major storms and not typhoons but that development potential does exist.

 

This morning's JMA track for 90W located north of Yap:

 

post-5791-0-88249400-1478038995.png

 

An infrared shot from the Himawari satellite:

 

post-5791-0-42850200-1478039131_thumb.png

 

and a wide view showing (from left to right) 91W, 90W, and 99W...

 

the latter being quite likely to recurve back to sea before approaching the archipelago:

 

post-5791-0-63788600-1478039259_thumb.gif

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

This is a nice graphic.

 

The east coast of Mindanao is visible in green outline in the bottom-left side of this image:

 

 

post-5791-0-77417200-1478044703_thumb.png

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BossHog

To say the forecast is uncertain would be an understatement.

 

Here's a selection of some recent model runs:

 

post-5791-0-70272500-1478122985_thumb.jpg

 

post-5791-0-09499700-1478122995_thumb.jpg

 

 

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has renamed this as Tropical Depression 26W and issued their first warning:

 

 

post-5791-0-23019500-1478123079_thumb.jpg

 

As they put it:

 

"THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AND WIDELY SPREAD WITH SOME, INCLUDING NAVGEM, FAVORING A DOMINANT NER STEERING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD. THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS, INCLUDING GFS, FAVOR A DOMINANT STR STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION."

 

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/wp2616prog.txt

 

 

Edit: here's the 6am updated track from JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency):

 

post-5791-0-97861800-1478124344.png

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

post-5791-0-88309000-1478139581_thumb.png

 

Now known as Tropical Storm Meari

 

Local name is "Marce".

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

post-5791-0-03512300-1478170403_thumb.jpg

 

post-5791-0-52024200-1478170458.png

 

post-5791-0-52743200-1478170717_thumb.png

 

post-5791-0-47695700-1478170579_thumb.gif

 

and...

 

 

Looks like nobody really knows

 

 

post-5791-0-28745400-1478170903_thumb.png

Edited by BossHog
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thebob

So it looks like the UKMO and JMA were closest!

 

I hope it heads north, to warm it up a bit here in Japan.

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Goetz1965

I always just laugh when people see a cloud over the pacific and start the "what if ...." machine.

Sorry guys, for me I always wait unless "it" enters PARs area of responsibility - then I still have at least 1-2 days for preparing myself - and 1-2 days is way enough even here in the philippines.

And by the way - theres another cloud building up just out there - please engage panic mode now ...

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BossHog

 

 

please engage panic mode now ...

 

The best way to avoid 'panic' is by keeping yourself well-informed.

 

 

 

when people see a cloud

 

If multiple meteorological agencies from various countries issue alerts and warnings, it's probably more than a cloud.

 

 

 

Sorry guys, for me I always wait unless "it" enters PARs area of responsibility - then I still have at least 1-2 days for preparing myself - and 1-2 days is way enough even here in the philippines.

 

Great for you. Others have planes and ferries to catch and outdoor activities and travel planned that might well be altered due to an approaching storm and could use the benefit of a "heads-up".

 

 Rather than inciting 'panic' the aim here is to avoid it by sharing the most recent data with no subjective commentary added.

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Dafey

forewarned is forearmed...

 

My kids are in Florida...hurricane alley...and to this day when Hurricane season starts they are stocked up on water, candles, propane and anything that might be needed. If you've never had to survive a brutal storm, and the aftermath, it's worth listening to the old timers that have.

 

this one is wobbling out there and that is why it's hard for the experts to call. However, there is a big High pressure zone northwest of the Phils and another to the south. If this thing busts a move soon it will be pushed out to sea...if not, we may need to stock up on water. 

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The best way to avoid 'panic' is by keeping yourself well-informed.

 

 

 

If multiple meteorological agencies from various countries issue alerts and warnings, it's probably more than a cloud.

 

 

 

Great for you. Others have planes and ferries to catch and outdoor activities and travel planned that might well be altered due to an approaching storm and could use the benefit of a "heads-up".

 

 Rather than inciting 'panic' the aim here is to avoid it by sharing the most recent data with no subjective commentary added.

Wasn't it Mark Twain (or some other wise one) who said "Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it."

 

I have used these posts from the resident linC weather man to adjust travel on many occasions. Using PAGASA is a pathetic joke, so I look forward to the updates and "cloud warnings".

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