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USMC-Retired

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musicman666
One thing I do agree on is that the Dollar is the most overvalued currency on the world market. However that is because of great strategic planning on the part of the US Federal Reserve. Thus if it did not dominate the world in trade then what would the value be? If the US did not dominate the world in consumer consumption where would it be? The factors are many layers deep and after WW2 the world decided that this would be the future. Maybe they will revisit this with a international currency for global trade instead of using the US Dollar. No telling on the future I know that the way the status qua is now, Americans enjoy a better quality of life because of it.

 

i have been suprised at how quick the euro has been implemented and taken hold as a very respected currency in a short time.

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Bob Ward
I don't think the Federal Reserve will do anything which places other currencies in jeopardy. Why? Because the Federal Reserve is in fact 40% owned by European interests.

 

* BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

* Bank of America Securities LLC

* Barclays Capital Inc.

* Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.

* Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

* Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC

* Daiwa Securities America Inc.

* Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

 

 

 

* Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC.

* Goldman, Sachs & Co.

* Greenwich Capital Markets Inc.

* HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

* J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.

* Mizuho Securities USA Inc.

* Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated

* UBS Securities LLC.

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One thing I do agree on is that the Dollar is the most overvalued currency on the world market. However that is because of great strategic planning on the part of the US Federal Reserve. Thus if it did not dominate the world in trade then what would the value be? If the US did not dominate the world in consumer consumption where would it be? The factors are many layers deep and after WW2 the world decided that this would be the future. Maybe they will revisit this with a international currency for global trade instead of using the US Dollar. No telling on the future I know that the way the status qua is now, Americans enjoy a better quality of life because of it.

 

 

Yes, consumer consumption did pretty well in the US as it was build upon the bubble home equity. This is gone now and the US is no more ahead of Europe. The highest priced real estate market in the US, Santa Barbara, lost over 40 % year to year. Wow.

 

Federal Reserve and strategic planning. Hmm. They are doing almost everything you shouldn't do. Never ahead of the curve. Green span focused on stock market and home price valuations instead of inflation/deflation/money market. Hence the manipulated numbers or no numbers at all. A Fed should never do politics and never be owned by banks. Right now they are flodding the market with money and talking about deflation. I guess there are people out there who believe it, right USMC?

 

.

Edited by scianna54
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Effervescent
The dollar will not nor never lose all. That is in the realm of impossibility. The Chinese and Japanese will never allow it. What about the OPEC countries. You think that they would allow this? The amount of dollars in reserve would then become worthless. So Japan and Chinese the 2 and 7 world economies would never ever allow it. They will prop it up. That is what you are seeing. The US federal reserve will do several things to also prop it up. They have started with the swap fund where countries can not swap Their currency for USD. This almost collapsed the Korean economy as they had to find a way to get dollar to pay debt. It props it up and makes it more valuable on the open market.

 

The dollar can not fall to no value, at least not anytime soon. I think what the situation is, is that people will be less driven to purchase US debt and lend the US money. Countries choosing to not continue to buy up US dollars, and continue lending to the US will have an effect I think. If the lack of lending means the US can no longer continue running a trade deficit, then consumption has to decrease. Decreased consumption means recession/depression to some degree. If there should be a drastic reduction in US consumption then we could be in trouble for years to come.

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Effervescent

@Huckfin

 

I don't care what you are "feeling" or what your "opinion" is as you have provided no information to defend either. You hypocritically accuse me of generalizing right after you guess about my profession. Your inane doctor patient metaphor goes nowhere. If you're offended, I don't care. If you wish to debate an issue then you must attack the statement, not the the one who issued the statement. A very basic rule of debate.

Edited by Caveat Emptor
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USMC-Retired
The dollar can not fall to no value, at least not anytime soon. I think what the situation is, is that people will be less driven to purchase US debt and lend the US money. Countries choosing to not continue to buy up US dollars, and continue lending to the US will have an effect I think. If the lack of lending means the US can no longer continue running a trade deficit, then consumption has to decrease. Decreased consumption means recession/depression to some degree. If there should be a drastic reduction in US consumption then we could be in trouble for years to come.

 

Oh yes years to come. It is starting to affect the Philippines now. According the Economist the Philippines is about 6 to 8 months behind the west in recessionary times. They are predicting several gloom scenarios if this does not correct in the next 18 months. What I mean by correct is getting consumers to spend again. The Philippines is expected to see a decrease in the GDP of 2% this year additionally burdened with huge budget deficit and growing international debt as they continue to roll bonds.

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Effervescent
Oh yes years to come. It is starting to affect the Philippines now. According the Economist the Philippines is about 6 to 8 months behind the west in recessionary times. They are predicting several gloom scenarios if this does not correct in the next 18 months. What I mean by correct is getting consumers to spend again. The Philippines is expected to see a decrease in the GDP of 2% this year additionally burdened with huge budget deficit and growing international debt as they continue to roll bonds.

 

There are dozens of countries all following the US/EU/China. This is where our raw resources and energy go, and how we make our money to balance our budget. If we are not able to sell our resources then we are just collecting more debt also and not able to pay the interest on the debt already in place. The Philippines is in a slightly different situation, but the end effect will be the same. Without a thriving world economy there is no where to send Philipino workers and then also no money coming in. Hard to say how dire the situation could become, but a country that imports food and energy to survive is not in a good position to weather this storm it seems.

 

@Caveat Emptor: It was just starting to get fun.

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thebob
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index or measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared to the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

 

And here's a chart of how it's performed over the last 12 months.

dollarindexchart.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND

 

In other words the death of the US Dollar is a myth up to this point in time.

 

This chart shows the last 12 months from an all time low of around 70 to it's present score of around 85. I'd say it is quite bleak for the currency we are forced into using for global trade.

 

I think that we should introduce a global currency, because this would shield global trade from the unsustainable credit driven consumerism of the developed nations.

 

For this currency I propose the leaf.

 

It is just as real as the dollar, which the Federal Reserve can just borrow into existence at its own whim.

 

The conditions that applied just after the second world war no longer apply. The status of the US$ as "the" reserve currency were tied to gold reserves. These checks and balances were slowly eroded, and eventually abandoned by Nixon in 1971. Since then the legitimacy of the US$ has been questionable.

 

Bailouts, stimulus packages, support for politically powerful industries just wont work.

 

The idea is at the moment that we just print more money, make it easy for people to borrow it, so they can buy things that they don't really deserve, so that people get jobs to make them. It's like a snake eating it's own tail. There are so many parasites "creating value through service" that there isn't enough money left at the end of the chain for the workers to create a reasonable amount of consumption and the shortfall is just borrowed.

 

To sum it up. Whichever way you slice it, you can't borrow your way out of debt.

 

It's Sari-Sari store economics.

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To sum it up. Whichever way you slice it, you can't borrow your way out of debt.

 

It's Sari-Sari store economics.

 

That is funny...

 

But we have to ask the questions..

 

1 are our experts completely incompetent?

 

2 is it just planned to look that way for the sheep to the slaughter?

 

I suppose we should hope for 1.

 

But with so much planning towards depopulation I think it is 2.

 

That's pretty sad...

 

It brings up the question. Where do I live so I don't get killed?

 

We should have just done what this genius said.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyIdMv78B-c

 

I am starting on this now if anyone wants to discuss a possible business relationship.

 

Watch the video and don't just wonder where his shirt is :o He is Ozzie for gods sake..

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Effervescent
That is funny...

 

But we have to ask the questions..

 

1 are our experts completely incompetent?

 

2 is it just planned to look that way for the sheep to the slaughter?

 

I suppose we should hope for 1.

 

But with so much planning towards depopulation I think it is 2.

 

That's pretty sad...

 

It brings up the question. Where do I live so I don't get killed?

 

We should have just done what this genius said.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyIdMv78B-c

 

I am starting on this now if anyone wants to discuss a possible business relationship.

 

Watch the video and don't just wonder where his shirt is :o He is Ozzie for gods sake..

 

I think it is important not to get tunnel vision. You can always find a negative story if that is what you are looking for. This does appear to be a time of change, but there is a balance between head in the sand and being completely convinced of the collapse of economics and society. I don't believe that people are going to be sheep to the slaughter or that there is going to be some kind of active population culling. There is no reason not to be prepared and apprehensive of the situation, but living each day in fear of your life would be much worse than death. The world has been through immense change before, and by far most survived. I would say don't get caught up on a Mad Max post apocalyptic dystopian future quite yet. If I'm wrong you can have the last laugh. :)

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If you are wrong there is no laughing.

 

Regardless I am not into fear..

 

I live in Cebu for three years.

 

I'm an observer with a plan in action.

 

Taking my time and enjoying life daily.

 

Most would not believe my life back home.

 

But with a clear bad situation I would call you mad if you were not living here at least over the next coming 3 years.

 

If you have the money. Or frugal wise.

 

To be there when you could be here is not a plan I would endorse right now.

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The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index or measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared to the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

 

And here's a chart of how it's performed over the last 12 months.

dollarindexchart.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND

 

In other words the death of the US Dollar is a myth up to this point in time.

 

 

Look up a chart how the stock market went up until March 2000!

 

 

Look up a chart how it went up from the low in 2003 to the high in December 2007.

 

Charts don't mean a thing.

 

A trend is only a trend until it is broken.

 

.

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Effervescent
If you are wrong there is no laughing.

 

Regardless I am not into fear..

 

I live in Cebu for three years.

 

I'm an observer with a plan in action.

 

Taking my time and enjoying life daily.

 

Most would not believe my life back home.

 

But with a clear bad situation I would call you mad if you were not living here at least over the next coming 3 years.

 

If you have the money. Or frugal wise.

 

To be there when you could be here is not a plan I would endorse right now.

 

I am glad to hear that you are prepared, but I have doubts about it being a clearly superior situation there, compared to here. I don't clearly see how living in a country requiring the import of energy and food to survive is a clear benefit. Being a foreigner in a country during a crisis/civil unrest I would think is typically a bad thing. I'm unaware of what your plan is or what exactly you are expecting to happen in the future though. We all seem to have a different vision of the future and how to prepare for it.

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