Jump to content

Finacial Situtation


USMC-Retired

Recommended Posts

USMC-Retired
The US consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day, which means 1 billion barrels is gone in 50 days, or Alaska is dry before the end of next year (2010).

 

58% of 20 million is 11.6 million barrels /day, so the strategic reserve is 200 days of imports.

 

The US is not going to replace that with bio fuels anytime soon, especially as many bio-fuels consume more energy than they produce.

 

Examples of a world power? Well that depends on your definition of a world power? Guerilla strikes against oil pipelines, nuclear power stations , the Internet, radioactive waste dumped into the Ogallala aquifier... the list is endless would be hugely destructive.

 

AL qaeda has caused more disruption to the US than the Iraq army, and yet has no zero tanks, zero aeroplanes, ...

 

Personally I think that an oil-embargo against the US would bring it to its knees very quickly; much faster than the US could put in place the infrastructure of alternative sources.

 

Dont get me wrong - I'm not anti American - I just think the US is a lot more vulnerable than you believe.

 

 

Do you think that a country would actually place an oil embargo a against the US. If some one did I would think the US military would be called into action. The US would consider this a malicious act. So maybe that is right. I mean think about this China could dump all the TBills it has and collapase the dollar. So I mean there are factors that could destroy or weaken the economy of the US. Though the US could do the same to other countries very quickly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Effervescent

    20

  • USMC-Retired

    13

  • GoneAsiatic

    7

  • ckfm

    6

Alan S
Do you think that a country would actually place an oil embargo a against the US. If some one did I would think the US military would be called into action. The US would consider this a malicious act

 

Just as Japan did.

And look where that got everyone.

Link to post
Share on other sites
USMC-Retired
Just as Japan did.

And look where that got everyone.

 

You talking WW2 the embargo that FDR did not support? That embargo was drawn up by the State Department. FDR had meet with Japan to resolve this issue. It was the paranoia of Japan that caused them to attack the US. Thus resulting in the downfall. The US had zero interest in the Indochina or its oil reserves. The other difference is that Japan was only the 10th industrial power at the time of the war. If Japan was not paranoid the US would stop them then US would never have been dragged into fighting Japan. FDR did not want to go to war with Japan and was working on a pipeline with China to resolve the crisis. The leader of Japan that brokered the deal Koyne fell from power. The new regime distrusted the US and the proposal previously offered to resolve the conflict. Japan also had offered to pull out of Indochina and that was not keeping with the new powers policy of expanding the empire.

 

Thus the embargo really was not the issue. It was the paranoia of the Japanese Leaders.

 

Plus 10th industrial nation at the time of the war.

Edited by USMC-Retired
Link to post
Share on other sites
Alan S

Mmm, well, lets just say that your understanding of (one of) the causes of Japan entering WW2 differs from mine.

 

However, as it is off topic, I suggest we drop the subject.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
Do you think that a country would actually place an oil embargo a against the US. If some one did I would think the US military would be called into action. The US would consider this a malicious act. So maybe that is right. I mean think about this China could dump all the TBills it has and collapase the dollar. So I mean there are factors that could destroy or weaken the economy of the US. Though the US could do the same to other countries very quickly.

 

Sorry for the delay in answering.

 

The answer to your question is No, I do not think that a country would be so stupid as to proclaim an oil embargo against the United States. A group of countries eg OPEC might however increase the price or cut production quotas which they have done in the past.

 

And yes, there is high level poker going on with T Bills, though I think US has the trumps if I mix my metaphors.

 

At some time time in the future, the US could "nationalise" T bills, and effectively confiscate the wealth of any country that held them.

It could simply declare Chinese held T Bills worthless.

 

But the Chinese could try ruining the dollar by selling T Bills.

 

Its all a bit like mutually assurred destruction.

 

Do I think any of this will happen - I sure hope not. But after OPEC countries nationalised western oil firms, I would have a wry smile if the US nationalised their T Bills after the oil runs out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Huck Finn
If the dollar ever crashes that would mean global failure. The great consumer will no longer consume. So where will the goods be sold? What is the emerging market to sell goods on the scale that the US buys? So the US dollar though in bad shape the world can not afford for the great consumer to stop consuming. It will be propped up as long as the world relies on the dollar.

 

Yep, I agree!

Link to post
Share on other sites
Huck Finn
We are in global failure now, just many would tell you otherwise I think. The countries, and therefore their currencies, that will survive the global failure are those that are without debt. The US debt is like a ball and chain that it must always drag around, and pay for. No matter how hard everyone is hit from the global recession the countries carrying large debts will always be the first to default. Every country must pay its bills, but a debt laden country must pay all of its bills, plus its debt interest. Even having payed that interest, it is still has not reduced its debt. Money is just paper and ink (not even that now) and the only thing that gives it value is our belief that it will be worth something more than just paper. If this global depression gets to the state where countries and currencies are brought into doubt, than it is without a doubt that those seeking to protect their wealth will invest in debt free countries. I think it is appropriate to compare countries to businesses in this sense. No one would choose to invest in a business that is laden with debt compared to one that is not, especially when they are witnessing so many going under.

 

I don't agree with your viewpoint that we are experiencing global failure. The way that you are talking I would hate to be your patient if you were a doctor. My guess is that you aren't a doctor and I'm also guessing that you aren't an expert on world economic affairs. Don't get me wrong. I appreciate your input. I just don't happen to agree with you.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Huck Finn
Actually it is quite common for Americans to speak of Canada in a condescending way. The 51st state etc. No idea where you got the opposite opinion from. Many say the opposite also though, and in fact many Americans own land and live here. The city I live in is a popular destination for them. Canadians are the same, of split opinion about the US, China, etc.

I have no idea which of your comments were meant as light hearted. The internet does not transmit emotion, an emoticon perhaps would help if you are meaning to be sarcastic or facetious. My comments about Canada were to show that anyone can speak ill of another country, and that all governments have a facade to some extent.

I don't feel that I need lightening up or that I am overly tense. This is who I am and I don't believe it is affecting my lifespan. :D Your concern is noted though.

I don't see how you got this "to hell in a handbasket" frame of mind. I said quite clearly that the United States and the US dollar would remain. There will be a readjustment is all. Nothing so dire as hellfire or that the rapture is imminent. I made numerous comparisons to the 1929 crash and as we know most of us in fact survived.

I agree that the jury is still out, and it has already been said by many that trusting the "experts" is pointless. As I said earlier it makes little difference what we think we are not going to change the outcome.

 

You don't know me and you do not speak for me. You do not have a clue as to what my feelings are concerning our neighbor "Canada". Please refrain from including the generalization of the "American" viewpoint from your perspective when posting. I find it offensive. Thank you...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Kind of interesting that many Americans are still hoping that IF the world (US$$$) will end, not only the world (America) but also the rest will go down together with them. I don't mean to say that in a bad way, but did you watch the reaction of THE OTHER world currencies when the the fed announced to buy 300 billion (or was it trillion) US bonds? Down it went 3, 4 or 5 % in 5 minutes, the lovely greenback. Just a taster I think. Hmm, how did you like it, world?

 

Another until recently very bold prognosis is more and more becoming reality. The path are the special drawing rights (SDR) of the IMF and following the same rules as the MBS/ ABS Ponzi (or Madoff) scheme: just stuff a lot of garbage into a package and then claim it contains gold... Let's remember: smart people had the idea to bundle rather bad and very bad loans (like dog houses mortgaged $200,000) into ABS and MBS, have it rated by crooked rating agencies and sell it way beyond its value to companies that were clueless what they were actually buying (or the decision makers were greased). Scam 2.0 is now in the making: simple bundle a couple of garbage fiat currencies and sell it as a solution (solid currency). It's incredible that with the same trick people are taken for a ride again (if they are getting away with that)! Clearly, this SDR gambit is very clever from the perspective of the elitists because the odds are close to 100% it will produce a terrible chaos the world hasn't seen before.

 

.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Markham
Kind of interesting that many Americans are still hoping that IF the world (US$$$) will end, not only the world (America) but also the rest will go down together with them. I don't mean to say that in a bad way, but did you watch the reaction of THE OTHER world currencies when the the fed announced to buy 300 billion (or was it trillion) US bonds? Down it went 3, 4 or 5 % in 5 minutes, the lovely greenback. Just a taster I think. Hmm, how did you like it, world?

I don't think the Federal Reserve will do anything which places other currencies in jeopardy. Why? Because the Federal Reserve is in fact 40% owned by European interests.

Edited by Markham
Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think the Federal Reserve will do anything which places other currencies in jeopardy. Why? Because the Federal Reserve is in fact 40% owned by European interests.

 

The greenback went down, NOT the other currencies, mainly Euro and Yen.

 

The greenback will be all lose very soon. How far can it fall?

 

Don't believe (or hope?) that the Fed is interested in saving the US$$, too late for that baby.

 

 

 

.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index or measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared to the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

 

And here's a chart of how it's performed over the last 12 months.

dollarindexchart.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND

 

In other words the death of the US Dollar is a myth up to this point in time.

Link to post
Share on other sites
USMC-Retired

The dollar will not nor never lose all. That is in the realm of impossibility. The Chinese and Japanese will never allow it. What about the OPEC countries. You think that they would allow this? The amount of dollars in reserve would then become worthless. So Japan and Chinese the 2 and 7 world economies would never ever allow it. They will prop it up. That is what you are seeing. The US federal reserve will do several things to also prop it up. They have started with the swap fund where countries can not swap Their currency for USD. This almost collapsed the Korean economy as they had to find a way to get dollar to pay debt. It props it up and makes it more valuable on the open market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe you guys are right.

 

Cause maybe in 1 year there is no US$$ no more.

 

Diluting may be in order I think if I would advise the Fed. Make something new to save the world. Call it, hmmm, not Amero, something else.

 

Let's work on that one.

 

Have dollars, want toilette tissue.

 

.

Link to post
Share on other sites
USMC-Retired
Maybe you guys are right.

 

Cause maybe in 1 year there is no US$$ no more.

 

Diluting may be in order I think if I would advise the Fed. Make something new to save the world. Call it, hmmm, not Amero, something else.

 

Let's work on that one.

 

Have dollars, want toilette tissue.

 

.

 

 

One thing I do agree on is that the Dollar is the most overvalued currency on the world market. However that is because of great strategic planning on the part of the US Federal Reserve. Thus if it did not dominate the world in trade then what would the value be? If the US did not dominate the world in consumer consumption where would it be? The factors are many layers deep and after WW2 the world decided that this would be the future. Maybe they will revisit this with a international currency for global trade instead of using the US Dollar. No telling on the future I know that the way the status qua is now, Americans enjoy a better quality of life because of it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Guidelines. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue..

Capture.JPG

I Understand...