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USMC-Retired

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GoneAsiatic
At times threads wander off in a different direction naturally. Especially one like this because even though the guvment here will try and tell you they are isolated and insulated, we know it ain't so. So as long as the OP does not complain or things get out of hand, we try to let things take their own course.

 

It's not like someone jumping in the middle of a thread on Philippine tourist destinations ranting about the price of tea in China. LOL

 

Well that sounds fair enough, although thread can take its own course without any further posts from me. A guy could spend his whole days and nights responding to posts claiming to be factual when they are actually laced with contradictions and conjecture.

 

It might be a fun for someone who does not work and has the time to stay on the Internet day and night, but I just don't have the time to do that. For me it has become a big time-waster. Maybe when I retire and have unlimited time, I will engage in that sport if I can't find a hobby.

 

The only trouble is that by then I might be too old to be coherent. Some might say that has already happened.

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Effervescent

There's much worse ways for people to spend their time also though. Even if everything said here is wrong, it is still something that a few people might find interesting to think about. There is no definitive way for anyone to predict the future, and that is really what is being attempted here. The only clues we have is to look at similar situations in the past. I do think that the old cliche "the past repeats itself" is our best, perhaps only, tool to rationally imagine the future. The Roman empire inflated its currency also and had dire effects. The War of independence was in large part to escape the the British Empires central banks. There are interesting historical similarities, or perhaps just coincidences.

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It's not like someone jumping in the middle of a thread on Philippine tourist destinations ranting about the price of tea in China. LOL

 

 

 

Interestingly the price of tea in China is relevant to our discussion as an example of a tea bubble economy busting in China... :welcome:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/world/as....html!!!

Edited by samatm
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Effervescent
welcome to the forum Effervescent, So you think China will emerge as a great world power? Welcome to the club...folks have been pondering the sleeping giant for at least a century or more. And we all know she ain't asleep anymore... Is the USD Dollar on a precipice...well many many investors (read nations) who bet with their money and not their mouth tend to dissagree at the moment. As the Global financial crisis has strenghtend so has the USD..Why is that? Perhaps its because the worlds investors know that US will never let its loans go into default. Perhaps they need to USD to trade amongst themselves not only with US..2/3 of dollars are held outside the US... even with the US in its weakend economic stature, she is still a HUGE HUGE Economic Engine coupled with a vibrant and strong democracy down to the city/ precinct level and is still the worlds greatest military power. Would the worlds investors put their faith in the Yuan? or the Ruble ? They might if it wern't for that pesky dictator thing..whereby policies change at the whim of the Red Army or in the Ruble?...again..Dictator watch alert....with a fragile democracy where the folks on the street yearn for the good ol' Soviet era. lets see now, if I want a safe haven for my money and China and Russia are off my list...lets see.. Korea..nope Crazy Kims to the North messes with that equation... Taiwan, nope, see Red Army above... ...Japan oh Japan...yeah looks good...very stable, industrialized, lots of cash reserves and their military is well hmm lets see i dont know???? guarding their Whalers rights somewhere i guess.. Oh how about Australia..great as long as the world demands its commodities.... Mideast countries.. now thats stable... (ok you get the picture... the US still is a very safe bet and most likely will be even after this mess is over) After this mess is over though like you say... The need for a safe house will dissapate and most likely (caveat thrown in....) the Dollar will lose value in the relativity game... because as we know all currencies are relative... As I peer into my Crystal Ball...the only currency I see replacing the USD is the EUR... when? I dunno....but it will happen so says my Crystal Ball.. bout the time the UK dumps the pound ...

 

Ack, my apologies I somehow missed your post earlier. Thank you for the welcome.

 

The US is strong and will remain that way. There is no one else in North or South America that can come near to the US in infrastructure, or military might. The US has historically done as it pleases in South America and it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The ability for the US to continue it's power projection in the pacific is greatly diminished though. The huge economic engine that is the US is the same economic engine as Rome, the British empire, China(the silk road) and many other great powers that also at one time lead the world. These powers as we all know crashed economically and then receded.

 

You speak of the pesky dictator thing, but lets look at modern countries with global investment that are dictatorships or near dictatorships. UAE, Syria, China, Singapore. Africa counts for 15% of all US oil imports from:Sudan, Madagascar, Kenya, Nigera and several others. It represents some of the most tyrannical and dangerous places on earth. They are part drilled and owned by US, Canadian, and Chinese companies. There are so many more it's not worth listing, the point is easily made.

 

The US are not going anywhere. The fall of all the other empires was not the death of them. China lost the two opium wars, was invaded by Japan, fought the Americans in Korea and they are still here. I am saying there is a shift taking place is all. There are many other countries on equal or near equal ground as the US. This period of trade collapse is always what preluded a shift in global power historically. It happened before the end of the Roman Empire, British Empire, Chinese empire (when they chose to voluntarily close themselves off from the rest of the world) and many many more times throughout history. IMHO I think it is wrong to not consider that in fact another change is possibly happening. To me it is obvious that you can not just import and not export while racking up a number in a machine and running a debt clock. This next stimulus plan (partly passed today?) for the US will add 1 trillion to it's debt. More money just simply printed(not even printed it is just electrons in a computer) to try to sustain the unsustainable. The US will remain definitely, but just like all other recession/depression and shifts in power there are hardships.

 

Sounds like an excellent book I will look for it!

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USMC-Retired

Looking at other great world power shifts the biggest diffrence is that the US is a one huge land mass. That has abundant resources and would not have to rely on other countries to sustain itself. That is the biggest thing that is overlooked. So a shift in the way the world does business is underway and other countries are going emerge on a global scene. However today I can not see any viable option that will emerge as an economic power. This is due to political and economic reasons. If the US continues to retracts in the global market on imports then we will continue to see other countries begin to go the way of Iceland.

 

 

 

Ack, my apologies I somehow missed your post earlier. Thank you for the welcome.

 

The US is strong and will remain that way. There is no one else in North or South America that can come near to the US in infrastructure, or military might. The US has historically done as it pleases in South America and it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The ability for the US to continue it's power projection in the pacific is greatly diminished though. The huge economic engine that is the US is the same economic engine as Rome, the British empire, China(the silk road) and many other great powers that also at one time lead the world. These powers as we all know crashed economically and then receded.

 

You speak of the pesky dictator thing, but lets look at modern countries with global investment that are dictatorships or near dictatorships. UAE, Syria, China, Singapore. Africa counts for 15% of all US oil imports from:Sudan, Madagascar, Kenya, Nigera and several others. It represents some of the most tyrannical and dangerous places on earth. They are part drilled and owned by US, Canadian, and Chinese companies. There are so many more it's not worth listing, the point is easily made.

 

The US are not going anywhere. The fall of all the other empires was not the death of them. China lost the two opium wars, was invaded by Japan, fought the Americans in Korea and they are still here. I am saying there is a shift taking place is all. There are many other countries on equal or near equal ground as the US. This period of trade collapse is always what preluded a shift in global power historically. It happened before the end of the Roman Empire, British Empire, Chinese empire (when they chose to voluntarily close themselves off from the rest of the world) and many many more times throughout history. IMHO I think it is wrong to not consider that in fact another change is possibly happening. To me it is obvious that you can not just import and not export while racking up a number in a machine and running a debt clock. This next stimulus plan (partly passed today?) for the US will add 1 trillion to it's debt. More money just simply printed(not even printed it is just electrons in a computer) to try to sustain the unsustainable. The US will remain definitely, but just like all other recession/depression and shifts in power there are hardships.

 

Sounds like an excellent book I will look for it!

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Effervescent
Looking at other great world power shifts the biggest diffrence is that the US is a one huge land mass. That has abundant resources and would not have to rely on other countries to sustain itself. That is the biggest thing that is overlooked. So a shift in the way the world does business is underway and other countries are going emerge on a global scene. However today I can not see any viable option that will emerge as an economic power. This is due to political and economic reasons. If the US continues to retracts in the global market on imports then we will continue to see other countries begin to go the way of Iceland.

 

Not sure how that make any sense. Russia is one giant land mass and it is right next to China that is one giant land mass. Both those land masses are larger than the US. Europe and Asia together are the worlds single largest land mass that have abundant resources also. How much oil does the US import, then tell me it is self sustaining. In fact the worlds largest deposits of oil are not in the US.

 

I would not, and have not, said that there is going to be just a single economic power. What I am saying is that the manufacturing potential of other countries far exceeds the US now. There is a much reduced technological disparity between the worlds powers now. The military disparity is being reduced very quickly as any attack against another major power is just a mutual destruction. Therefore there is no reason for any one of these countries to be a clear leader, but all of them can be potential competitors. If many countries are all quite even, and there is gobal uncertainty economically, why can't someone just switch all their money to another countries currency? It already happened with the industrialization of Japan, everyone can buy and trade the yen. The Yuan can be purchased at any bank also the Euro. What is so special about a country who's in great debt, is running a trade deficit and has the largest corporate bankruptcies ever in world history. It is only the perception of stability that made the US dollar the international currency. This perception has already been changed. You can exchange many currencies when you travel now, that never use to be the case 20-30 years ago. In todays age we can exchange currencies from our homes over the internet nearly instantly. There is no reason that people shouldn't pay for everything in these other currencies also already. People are already investing in foreign stock exchanges, this was not the case a few decades ago. The perception of stability has already been damaged, and the number of people investing in foreign companies and currencies to hedge their bets in case of a crash is much higher. This is evidence of a changing world perception of American Stability.

 

Money is also a commodity just like iron, gold or even grain. When it is in demand it's value increases. When it is not in demand it decreases.

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USMC-Retired

Alaskan Oil Reserves are untapped. So yes the US has enough oil. They estimate 10.4 billion barrels of oil are in the ground in Alaska. Then holding 21.4 billion barrels in reserve or stock piling it. Additionally the US only imports 58% of the oil consumed from other countries. So yes I believe the US can sustain its self and would faster shift bio fuels if the oil flow were cut off.

 

Land mass for food and harvesting? The growth of products to sustain its self? Russia and China do not have this type of land. Lots of mountains and snow.

 

Technology and Military disparity have not even begun. No country rivals the US for Technology and Research. Military? That goes hand in hand with Technology and Research. So no a transition or emerging power other then the US has not arrived or will in the near future. Probably not in my lifetime.

 

I guess what I would need is examples of how the Russia and China or other country could emerge as a world power. It is not on the table.

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Effervescent
Alaskan Oil Reserves are untapped. So yes the US has enough oil. They estimate 10.4 billion barrels of oil are in the ground in Alaska. Then holding 21.4 billion barrels in reserve or stock piling it. Additionally the US only imports 58% of the oil consumed from other countries. So yes I believe the US can sustain its self and would faster shift bio fuels if the oil flow were cut off.

 

Land mass for food and harvesting? The growth of products to sustain its self? Russia and China do not have this type of land. Lots of mountains and snow.

 

Technology and Military disparity have not even begun. No country rivals the US for Technology and Research. Military? That goes hand in hand with Technology and Research. So no a transition or emerging power other then the US has not arrived or will in the near future. Probably not in my lifetime.

 

I guess what I would need is examples of how the Russia and China or other country could emerge as a world power. It is not on the table.

 

Russias oil reserves are estimated at 48.6 billion barrels by the US oil and gas journal and have the worlds largest supply of uranium. Russia and China are both food exporters and are already self sufficient. None of the world powers need the other. China is the largest manufacturer in the world. Militarily the US already could not outright defeat China in conventional warfare in 1950. That's why we have North Korea today. Vietnam we all know. It is a mute point really as none of the superpowers would willingly repeat a Cuban missile crisis. I think the wars of the future are economic or just the superpowers messing around in some small country.

 

Technology is far different now. Since there is no repeat of the Cuban missile crisis going to happen the technology that matters is tech leading to industry and manufacturing. Countries like the US, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and many others all have their niche tech already. They are all making products that sell and make money already. They already are world powers. Russia just cut off Europes gas and left several countries in the cold during one of the harshest winters. No one did anything. They all sat down at the bargaining table and worked things out peacefully. Thats the way the world powers do things because risking conflict in a military sense against each other is silly, everyone has much more to lose than to gain. No one is going to march into China and free Tibet, the idea is silly.

 

The US has already been passed in areas of technology. Korea holds the patents for the best computer displays is a simple example. Cars are a good example of how technology is equalizing. I think the US still leads in most fields, but it is important to understand that cutting edge research is being done in many places now.

 

If you are alive now you have seen the rise of the worlds most powerful manufacturer in history. That's what economic wealth is. Wealth is building infrastructure, and goods and services. Wealth is having other people invest in your country and infrastructure. The US, China and the EU, Japan and South Korea all definitely qualify as powers. These are the manufacturing centres of the world. Most all manufactured goods you see will all be from one of these groups. These are the world powers, these are all great places to invest and are all stable. These are the groups that compete against each other on the global market.

 

The examples of how world powers ebb and change are in any history book. The British Empire's rise and fall would be a good place to start. Pay special attention to their historical banking policies. One very easy thing to spot is that every empire thought that it would be the regional or global power forever.

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Ack, my apologies I somehow missed your post earlier. Thank you for the welcome.

 

You speak of the pesky dictator thing, but lets look at modern countries with global investment that are dictatorships or near dictatorships. UAE, Syria, China, Singapore. Africa counts for 15% of all US oil imports from:Sudan, Madagascar, Kenya, Nigera and several others. It represents some of the most tyrannical and dangerous places on earth. They are part drilled and owned by US, Canadian, and Chinese companies. There are so many more it's not worth listing, the point is easily made.

 

 

 

Sounds like an excellent book I will look for it!

It is an excellent read: http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Great-Powe...3096&sr=8-1 Im in for re-reading

 

 

I think you missed my point on the pesky dictator problem... I dont deny a strong dictatorship can yeild a powerful economy..hecks I often wish the PI would go back to dictatorship.... ( a benevolent..one of course). I was referring to the relative value of global currencies... My point is that for a safe haven to park a nation's wealth (lets say your are a nation like the PI for example) would you change your US dollars into the Chinese Yuan or Rubles, knowing the political systems of the two growing economies? Or would you say keep your wealth backed by a stable free democratic and militarily strong country (or Zone)? Which is safer is what you have to ask... Hence thats why we've seen the Yen and USD strengthen in these days of economic crisis.

 

I agree Global Balances shift and wane and you have really good points......but at 1 point you said there are many countries equal too or nearly equal to the US... Thats just not true. Many, Who? Now you could take the whole EU for example and make a strong case for the EU being as strong if not stronger economically and militarily....even peacefully.

 

Now about the price of tea in China...... heres the link again: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/world/asia/17tea.html

 

Interesting Thread.. Good points.

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Effervescent
It is an excellent read: http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Great-Powe...3096&sr=8-1 Im in for re-reading

 

 

I think you missed my point on the pesky dictator problem... I dont deny a strong dictatorship can yeild a powerful economy..hecks I often wish the PI would go back to dictatorship.... ( a benevolent..one of course). I was referring to the relative value of global currencies... My point is that for a safe haven to park a nation's wealth (lets say your are a nation like the PI for example) would you change your US dollars into the Chinese Yuan or Rubles, knowing the political systems of the two growing economies? Or would you say keep your wealth backed by a stable free democratic and militarily strong country (or Zone)? Which is safer is what you have to ask... Hence thats why we've seen the Yen and USD strengthen in these days of economic crisis.

 

I agree Global Balances shift and wane and you have really good points......but at 1 point you said there are many countries equal too or nearly equal to the US... Thats just not true. Many, Who? Now you could take the whole EU for example and make a strong case for the EU being as strong if not stronger economically and militarily....even peacefully.

 

Now about the price of tea in China...... heres the link again: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/world/asia/17tea.html

 

Interesting Thread.. Good points.

Ahh okay. What nations do in times of crisis is exchange currencies with their close allies to hedge their bets in case of a loss. Here is an article about China giving Yuan to Korea and Korea giving Won to China to protect each other. Now what ever the blow to a single currency they will share the loss and the risk, and also the gain if there is any.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/quotes/txt/2009...tent_173360.htm

 

Yes, Actually China just surpassed the US as the largest manufacturer in the world.

http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=13310

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USMC-Retired

I will agree to disagree. The US in my life time next 30 years or so will remain the global power. Nothing will change in my lifetime.

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Effervescent
I will agree to disagree. The US in my life time next 30 years or so will remain the global power. Nothing will change in my lifetime.

A perfectly valid opinion. We are all sitting here giving our best guess as to the future, but it is a hypothesis at best. If we ask 10 people, we'll likely get 15 different answers. It's the difference of opinion that makes the discussion interesting though.

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Alaskan Oil Reserves are untapped. So yes the US has enough oil. They estimate 10.4 billion barrels of oil are in the ground in Alaska. Then holding 21.4 billion barrels in reserve or stock piling it. Additionally the US only imports 58% of the oil consumed from other countries. So yes I believe the US can sustain its self and would faster shift bio fuels if the oil flow were cut off.

 

I guess what I would need is examples of how the Russia and China or other country could emerge as a world power. It is not on the table.

 

The US consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day, which means 1 billion barrels is gone in 50 days, or Alaska is dry before the end of next year (2010).

 

58% of 20 million is 11.6 million barrels /day, so the strategic reserve is 200 days of imports.

 

The US is not going to replace that with bio fuels anytime soon, especially as many bio-fuels consume more energy than they produce.

 

Examples of a world power? Well that depends on your definition of a world power? Guerilla strikes against oil pipelines, nuclear power stations , the Internet, radioactive waste dumped into the Ogallala aquifier... the list is endless would be hugely destructive.

 

AL qaeda has caused more disruption to the US than the Iraq army, and yet has no zero tanks, zero aeroplanes, ...

 

Personally I think that an oil-embargo against the US would bring it to its knees very quickly; much faster than the US could put in place the infrastructure of alternative sources.

 

Dont get me wrong - I'm not anti American - I just think the US is a lot more vulnerable than you believe.

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