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The world on a whole is deflating. For an Australian living on a fixed income this is a bad time as the Australian dollar has lost allot of value against the PHP. I just talked to a guy from Guangzhou and he said things are bad in China. He said there are no jobs and things are really getting tough. It is much worse than in California he said.

 

post-778-1230577191_thumb.jpg

 

This is a chart for the Comdex continuous futures contract for gold. The price has been ran up, mostly based on fear. The large commercial traders are loosing interest in gold, this is based on the COT (commitment of traders) free government reports. Market sentiment is very high, everyone says buy gold. The price run up has been done on declining open interest. It is a very good bet gold is about to take a big drop. I think is a very good time to be thinking about shorting gold.

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twostrokes

All I know is that I am seeing inflation here in Texas, I would say 20-35% on many things, such as fast food. Example a single piece of fish from Long John Silvers, a fast food franchise, has gone from .89 cents each 18 months ago to a new increase last week to $1.49.. this has been in like .25 cent increases every few months. Utilities have gone up about 25% over the past 2 years.. My avg electric bill has gone from $122.00 a month to $177 a month, Water, has gone from $27.00 to $41.00...

 

Now everyone has thier idea of the big picture, as many on each side of the fence as there are people making predictions. Inflation or deflation...

All I know is a couple years ago, I made a decision to GET OUT Of DEBT.... This included paying off my mortgate on a house valued at about $225,000 18 mos ago by the bank doing the loan.

 

So now I have accompolished that goal....became 100% debt free this month....I had planned on working half time for the next 6 months. I then reach 62 and can retire...My total retirement will be just under $3,000 a month.

 

Should I rethink my retirement and work max hours as I have been doing to get out of debt for maybe another year or two so I can bank maybe $50-60K a year, or should I go ahead and enjoy my retirement and hope the $3,000 a month will be sufficient to last me my lifetime. Now I don't know how long I will live. History is against me. No man in my family has lived past 64....I have DM, have had 2 heart attacks, my pancreas is shot, they cannot do any further surgeries on it and a few other medical issues...I turn 62 in May...

 

So my questions are 1. Did I make the right decision dumping all my money into the equity of my house, along with getting out of debt?

2. Should I be content with the $3,000 and maybe 15k in the bank at retirement, or should I keep working a couple more years to put some cash away??

3. How much should I worry about my family and my medical history?? I will say one thing, I have started taking much better care of myself starting about 10 years ago that I previously did and much more than the males in my family ever did.

 

What would you do??

Hope this is not hijacking the tread. It is money related, just personal for the moment..

Jim

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smokey
All I know is that I am seeing inflation here in Texas, I would say 20-35% on many things, such as fast food. Example a single piece of fish from Long John Silvers, a fast food franchise, has gone from .89 cents each 18 months ago to a new increase last week to $1.49.. this has been in like .25 cent increases every few months. Utilities have gone up about 25% over the past 2 years.. My avg electric bill has gone from $122.00 a month to $177 a month, Water, has gone from $27.00 to $41.00...

 

Now everyone has thier idea of the big picture, as many on each side of the fence as there are people making predictions. Inflation or deflation...

All I know is a couple years ago, I made a decision to GET OUT Of DEBT.... This included paying off my mortgate on a house valued at about $225,000 18 mos ago by the bank doing the loan.

 

So now I have accompolished that goal....became 100% debt free this month....I had planned on working half time for the next 6 months. I then reach 62 and can retire...My total retirement will be just under $3,000 a month.

 

Should I rethink my retirement and work max hours as I have been doing to get out of debt for maybe another year or two so I can bank maybe $50-60K a year, or should I go ahead and enjoy my retirement and hope the $3,000 a month will be sufficient to last me my lifetime. Now I don't know how long I will live. History is against me. No man in my family has lived past 64....I have DM, have had 2 heart attacks, my pancreas is shot, they cannot do any further surgeries on it and a few other medical issues...I turn 62 in May...

 

So my questions are 1. Did I make the right decision dumping all my money into the equity of my house, along with getting out of debt?

2. Should I be content with the $3,000 and maybe 15k in the bank at retirement, or should I keep working a couple more years to put some cash away??

3. How much should I worry about my family and my medical history?? I will say one thing, I have started taking much better care of myself starting about 10 years ago that I previously did and much more than the males in my family ever did.

 

What would you do??

Hope this is not hijacking the tread. It is money related, just personal for the moment..

Jim

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well jim if your talking moving to the PI your in great shape with your house paid off... I did the same thing i made 2 to 4 payments a month and paid my house off and then i sold my buisness to give me payments over a long term so i came here and built and paid for my house so no payment and my cars etc.. so you have your 3000 a month and with the sale of the house you can build one here or bank the money and just rent and enjoy some years... once your gone the tax man will come a knocking..You should buy if needed some medical insurance..

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All I know is that I am seeing inflation here in Texas, I would say 20-35% on many things, such as fast food. Example a single piece of fish from Long John Silvers, a fast food franchise, has gone from .89 cents each 18 months ago to a new increase last week to $1.49.. this has been in like .25 cent increases every few months. Utilities have gone up about 25% over the past 2 years.. My avg electric bill has gone from $122.00 a month to $177 a month, Water, has gone from $27.00 to $41.00...

 

Now everyone has thier idea of the big picture, as many on each side of the fence as there are people making predictions. Inflation or deflation...

All I know is a couple years ago, I made a decision to GET OUT Of DEBT.... This included paying off my mortgate on a house valued at about $225,000 18 mos ago by the bank doing the loan.

 

So now I have accompolished that goal....became 100% debt free this month....I had planned on working half time for the next 6 months. I then reach 62 and can retire...My total retirement will be just under $3,000 a month.

 

Should I rethink my retirement and work max hours as I have been doing to get out of debt for maybe another year or two so I can bank maybe $50-60K a year, or should I go ahead and enjoy my retirement and hope the $3,000 a month will be sufficient to last me my lifetime. Now I don't know how long I will live. History is against me. No man in my family has lived past 64....I have DM, have had 2 heart attacks, my pancreas is shot, they cannot do any further surgeries on it and a few other medical issues...I turn 62 in May...

 

So my questions are 1. Did I make the right decision dumping all my money into the equity of my house, along with getting out of debt?

2. Should I be content with the $3,000 and maybe 15k in the bank at retirement, or should I keep working a couple more years to put some cash away??

3. How much should I worry about my family and my medical history?? I will say one thing, I have started taking much better care of myself starting about 10 years ago that I previously did and much more than the males in my family ever did.

 

What would you do??

Hope this is not hijacking the tread. It is money related, just personal for the moment..

Jim

 

 

I would say to myself...

 

What do I want out of life if I only had 2 years left? If you love work or want to hand on something else to children or loved ones, if that keeps you going (for whatever reason), keep it in mind.

 

My Dad is in a similar position in a way. He was recently diagnosed with a poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma of the small bowel. This carries a poor prognosis. The histology showed that the cancer breached the last defense and was in the adventitia. Truly the enemy at the gates. There's a chance it was cut off from spreading whilst on Omaha Beach at the time of surgery, but how to proceed with life after, in this situation?

 

He could just sit around and wait. If he waits 5 years, the coast is clear. But he's then 70. Sounds silly to sit around worrying just to be proved one way or the other, to await his next decision.

 

Life is invaluable when in tolerably good health, with loved ones and some wealth.

 

You can't live life in limbo for long. We all die one day.

 

If the cards are stacked against you and you have a few good cards to play, the issue is just how to play them.

 

In the case of ischaemic heart disease and DM...

 

Optimise meds, diet and exercise.

 

Your cholesterol must be under 5. Go on a high powered statin, such as rosuvastatin or atorvastatin. Get that cholesterol UNDER 5 if you can.

 

Make sure your cardiac meds are optimised - ACE inhibitor, beta blocker (eg metoprolol), nitrates (patch etc), calcium channel blockers (eg amlodipine) as indicated.

 

Anti-platelet agent as best indicated - eg aspirin, clopidogrel, asasantin.

 

Tight glucose control with treats for occasions that are meant to be enjoyed.

 

Eat well but not punitively. Life is for living.

 

3000 USD per month is good. Even better in PI, you can live like a king. BUT if the shit hits the fan medically, remember the cards are STACKED in your favour in the USA IMO, unless you are in Manila near a world class Western hospital AND you have good insurance cover.

 

If you can't have surgery, does that also mean no angioplasty/stent? Can you get thrombolysis? Remember time to thrombolysis is critical.

 

Get your weight down as possible, with a gentle but consistent program. There's a timeless experiment in the 1970s I think showing fat rats live the shortest, slightly underweight rats live the longest, very skinny rats die like the fat ones.

 

I'm glad to hear people reporting on inflation of food. But, what about prices of SUVs, aircraft - US manufacturing?

 

My readings are for more deflation in the short term, but no one really knows. Its all probability (ie supersized chance).

 

Clearly its complex - not firesale prices across the board. Its interesting to see the basics go up. On junk food, I notice here in Australia a dimsim just went from 80c to 90c.

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USMC-Retired

Living here nicely is so easy. People do it for as little as 1,000 dollars a month. Rent and utilities are cheap. So you are in awesome shape. good luck with your decision.

 

 

Well jim if your talking moving to the PI your in great shape with your house paid off... I did the same thing i made 2 to 4 payments a month and paid my house off and then i sold my buisness to give me payments over a long term so i came here and built and paid for my house so no payment and my cars etc.. so you have your 3000 a month and with the sale of the house you can build one here or bank the money and just rent and enjoy some years... once your gone the tax man will come a knocking..You should buy if needed some medical insurance..
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Oh and as for gold...

 

The COMEX price for futures contracts is mostly built on paper contracts..

 

Note, the contracts for delivery are already nearly 50% of Comex's TOTAL registered inventory just this month!

 

There is a buy signal at $750. Price is 880 approx right now. If it falls, MORE contracts will be taken in bullion and not cash. Gold is money and money is where to be.

 

Having said that, I have bought gold, silver, gold shares and I can say this....

 

Newcrest mining is up 38% in just a few weeks. Its the main Australian big cap play. Newmont is up 20% (up 10% for me, cos it was down on my portfolio), Santa Barbara is back in positive turf as of today - was down 25%, Lihir is back in black, was down 30%, Dioro is still dire - but is a small-mid cap and completely unhedged. If it goes back to its high when gold was $1000 USD its fine and the rest will be caning.

 

I'm long on gold anyway, I expect short term shocks.

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For Aussie purchasers

 

I bought silver 1kg bars today from goldbullion.com.au at $572 AUD each. Delivery is 15-18 weeks as the order is sent to the refiner.

 

This is pretty good value per troy ounce right now, at least here in Australia. Spot price per troy its $15.91 AUD. Thats about $60 AUD premium for the bar, under $2 premium per oz.

 

This is way better value than 1 oz coins - best I can find is about $30 AUD per piece - the one ounce Kookaburras in 20 coin rolls. There's some left at Ainslee but supply is thin on the ground.

 

There's no gold to be had.

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As for food and utilities

 

These are necessities and traditionally stable in prices, when times are bad. Everyone needs to eat and use electricity (to some extent).

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The world on a whole is deflating. For an Australian living on a fixed income this is a bad time as the Australian dollar has lost allot of value against the PHP. I just talked to a guy from Guangzhou and he said things are bad in China. He said there are no jobs and things are really getting tough. It is much worse than in California he said.

 

It is a very good bet gold is about to take a big drop. I think is a very good time to be thinking about shorting gold.

 

Guangzhou is a hotline to Hong Kong. Its a major manufacturing centre, full of factories, whereas HK is a financial centre. HK is the brain for the brawn.

 

As mentioned here and elsewhere, the PROC is made up of numerous minorites and tensions flare in hard times. Jobs and nepotism borne of minority (and possibly Confucian values of "family") are possibly the issues for civil unrest and political volatility.

 

Does anyone have any ideas about the implications for currency trading (I understand that if one currency falls, another rises by definition as currencies are a game of relativity), or most importantly, assets in USD and PHP?

 

I'll have to check on net short positions for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. My last read was there are few long short positions.

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A cautionary tale

 

On the note of "shorting"

 

I put 15K in GOLD ETF just months ago, which rocketed to 19K in only a week

 

What did I do? Like doofus, I thought manna had rained down from heaven. I held. Only to watch that 4K profit wither on the vine to near zero at which point I sold out to stop a loss.

 

The message is CLEARLY:

 

Sell on strength

 

Buy on weakness

 

To loosely quote Dave....

 

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

 

I've hopefully learnt.

 

Gold mining share investing is different to ETFs

 

But if you make a good profit, remember the axiom.

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Maybe the whole issue of inflation versus deflation has a lot to do with where you live in the world ? Even in the Philippines i read inflation dependent upon where you live . The official inflation rate if i am not mistaken is around 10% . But that"s an average . In Cebu it may be 7% but in Cagayan De Oro it is probably closer to 15 % or higher . Perhaps some of this has nothing to do with economic fundementals and more to do with " who controls what " ?

 

There has been a significent decrease in LPG here for instance . Two months ago we paid 700 + , last month 500 even . So some of the costing is being passed along . But then the Philippines seems to be more concerned about Gas than it does Oil . Wonder why that might be ? :-)

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Maybe the whole issue of inflation versus deflation has a lot to do with where you live in the world ? Even in the Philippines i read inflation dependent upon where you live . The official inflation rate if i am not mistaken is around 10% . But that"s an average . In Cebu it may be 7% but in Cagayan De Oro it is probably closer to 15 % or higher . Perhaps some of this has nothing to do with economic fundementals and more to do with " who controls what " ?

 

There has been a significent decrease in LPG here for instance . Two months ago we paid 700 + , last month 500 even . So some of the costing is being passed along . But then the Philippines seems to be more concerned about Gas than it does Oil . Wonder why that might be ? :-)

 

PI has had high inflation for some time and general comments for big economies are indirect to issues on the ground in the PI.

 

I'll research. The important direct issues relate to PI history and culture, through the lens of the present mindset of powerbrokers in the PI.

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twostrokes
Well jim if your talking moving to the PI your in great shape with your house paid off... I did the same thing i made 2 to 4 payments a month and paid my house off and then i sold my buisness to give me payments over a long term so i came here and built and paid for my house so no payment and my cars etc.. so you have your 3000 a month and with the sale of the house you can build one here or bank the money and just rent and enjoy some years... once your gone the tax man will come a knocking..You should buy if needed some medical insurance..

 

 

Yes, I know I can live pretty good in the PI right now with that type retirement. We are not planning on selling the house. The wife had decided she does not want to move back to the PI full time. More what Mr. Lee does, half there, half here...I have worked out another plan, which she agrees to which will be : Three months here in the states with family, then 3 months on a travel assignment in Hawaii. The company picks up the tab on the housing. Then taking the extra earnings from the Hawaii gig, head to the PI. Spend 6 months in ASIA. 3 months in the PI and three 1 month trips to other ASIAN countries. I could rent the house out at about $12-1500 a month as it is a large (3000 sq ft) 4bd 2.5 ba house on 1 acre. At that price I could be pickey about the renter.That would add extra income...Once I drop dead, the wife will want to come back here to live, so wants to keep the house.

 

As far as insurance is concerned, I will have TriCare, or TriCare for Life....as I am medically retired from the USN

 

I guess I am more concerned with inflation, as people predicting the US dollar to become worthless... All my retirement is from the US gov't or the State of Texas gov't....being USN disablity ck, social security, and retirement from the state of texas....I'm sure as a backup plan I would have enough to live in the PI forever, just don't want that to be my ONLY option.

Jim

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twostrokes
I would say to myself...

 

What do I want out of life if I only had 2 years left? If you love work or want to hand on something else to children or loved ones, if that keeps you going (for whatever reason), keep it in mind.

 

My Dad is in a similar position in a way. He was recently diagnosed with a poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma of the small bowel. This carries a poor prognosis. The histology showed that the cancer breached the last defense and was in the adventitia. Truly the enemy at the gates. There's a chance it was cut off from spreading whilst on Omaha Beach at the time of surgery, but how to proceed with life after, in this situation?

 

He could just sit around and wait. If he waits 5 years, the coast is clear. But he's then 70. Sounds silly to sit around worrying just to be proved one way or the other, to await his next decision.

 

Life is invaluable when in tolerably good health, with loved ones and some wealth.

 

You can't live life in limbo for long. We all die one day.

 

If the cards are stacked against you and you have a few good cards to play, the issue is just how to play them.

 

In the case of ischaemic heart disease and DM...

 

Optimise meds, diet and exercise.

 

Your cholesterol must be under 5. Go on a high powered statin, such as rosuvastatin or atorvastatin. Get that cholesterol UNDER 5 if you can.

 

Make sure your cardiac meds are optimised - ACE inhibitor, beta blocker (eg metoprolol), nitrates (patch etc), calcium channel blockers (eg amlodipine) as indicated.

 

Anti-platelet agent as best indicated - eg aspirin, clopidogrel, asasantin.

 

Tight glucose control with treats for occasions that are meant to be enjoyed.

 

Eat well but not punitively. Life is for living.

 

3000 USD per month is good. Even better in PI, you can live like a king. BUT if the shit hits the fan medically, remember the cards are STACKED in your favour in the USA IMO, unless you are in Manila near a world class Western hospital AND you have good insurance cover.

 

If you can't have surgery, does that also mean no angioplasty/stent? Can you get thrombolysis? Remember time to thrombolysis is critical.

 

Get your weight down as possible, with a gentle but consistent program. There's a timeless experiment in the 1970s I think showing fat rats live the shortest, slightly underweight rats live the longest, very skinny rats die like the fat ones.

 

I'm glad to hear people reporting on inflation of food. But, what about prices of SUVs, aircraft - US manufacturing?

 

My readings are for more deflation in the short term, but no one really knows. Its all probability (ie supersized chance).

 

Clearly its complex - not firesale prices across the board. Its interesting to see the basics go up. On junk food, I notice here in Australia a dimsim just went from 80c to 90c.

 

 

Well, in the work dept. I don't love my job.....I am tired of it. I even cut my hours to half time starting in Jan. That is because I can live on that as I am already receiving two other retirement checks at the same time. That half time is from Jan to June at which time I will fully retire. I have addressed the medical issues the best I can. I am aware of the things you mentioned. I an a Registered Nurse and work with many doctors that I discuss things with. Since I go to the Military for my medical, I only see them when absolutely necessary. The pancreas is the problem that is on it's last leg and no further surgery. The heart problems are pretty much under control at the present and have stints...The DM is a constant battle, but I do preltty well, but there is room for improvement. Once I stop working these crazy hours, mostly 12 hour night shifts, my eating habits will be easier to control...

 

I guess my question was more about my concern for inflation and people saying the dollar will tank...Idon't want to retire thinking I have it made on my retirement with no nest egg, other than selling the house. If I did keep working, since I am now free and clear, I could bank 50-60k with no problems maybe even more if I keep working....I just don't want to drop dead working. I would like to spend a few years traveling ASIA and seeing the many countries that I was close to before but never took the time to visit... I spent 15 yrs in the PI....When I had the money, I didn't have the time, when I had the time, I didn't havel the money for traveling...So now I would like to be able to do some traveling around ASIA and relax in the PI.....I am ready to get out of the RATRACE but don't want to be forced back into it by jumping out to soon.

Jim

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Well, in the work dept. I don't love my job.....I am tired of it. I even cut my hours to half time starting in Jan. That is because I can live on that as I am already receiving two other retirement checks at the same time. That half time is from Jan to June at which time I will fully retire. I have addressed the medical issues the best I can. I am aware of the things you mentioned. I an a Registered Nurse and work with many doctors that I discuss things with. Since I go to the Military for my medical, I only see them when absolutely necessary. The pancreas is the problem that is on it's last leg and no further surgery. The heart problems are pretty much under control at the present and have stints...The DM is a constant battle, but I do preltty well, but there is room for improvement. Once I stop working these crazy hours, mostly 12 hour night shifts, my eating habits will be easier to control...

 

I guess my question was more about my concern for inflation and people saying the dollar will tank...Idon't want to retire thinking I have it made on my retirement with no nest egg, other than selling the house. If I did keep working, since I am now free and clear, I could bank 50-60k with no problems maybe even more if I keep working....I just don't want to drop dead working. I would like to spend a few years traveling ASIA and seeing the many countries that I was close to before but never took the time to visit... I spent 15 yrs in the PI....When I had the money, I didn't have the time, when I had the time, I didn't havel the money for traveling...So now I would like to be able to do some traveling around ASIA and relax in the PI.....I am ready to get out of the RATRACE but don't want to be forced back into it by jumping out to soon.

Jim

 

OK Jim

 

Sounds like the algorithm is

 

12 hour shifts = eating habits

 

and

 

Eating habits = lead foot on the accelerator

 

and

 

Pancreatic reserve is low

 

and

 

You already have 3000 USD per month to retire on

 

The only thing missing is what facts or opinions lead you to conclusions which make you worry about what will happen to the USD

 

If it is that you have a pension plan and that creates your 3000 USD

 

Then

 

What are the components of your investment plan?

 

Can you influence the investments made in that?

 

Do you know what the spread of investments is?

 

Do you have any precious metal in that?

 

Gold will go most likely up, probably in a rocky fashion. Which means buy on weakness. Time is the major issue. Silver is weak as water now (but thats only my view). And silver is different to gold. Gold is different to platinum. THey all share the common ground of being precious (rare) metals which are currency. They share this latter value with promisory notes (paper currency).

 

Currency is all relative. In another thread USMC-retired writes about key issues. Currencies are relative in value to one another. One goes up, another down. Long term (being five years as an arbitrary line in the sand), the USD is going down (my opinion only). There is also another issue, about the value of paper when ALL paper currencies do the same thing roughly in concert, ie over or under do it with printing.

 

The Euro and other smaller economies may be weaker in the short term (the Euro is based on a number of countries unlike the USD), and any fall is relative to the USD, which has the dual role of currency of the world's biggest economy as well (in some ways) acting as the de facto gold standard.

 

You can "hedge", so that losses in USD could be offset by gains eg in gold and energy, and vice versa. Bear in mind "neither" may be right, meaning you lose on both sides. This means looking for confounders.

 

Geopolitical considerations count too. The whole process of learning can be an added stress.

 

In your position, and as you have time, I would read and become informed with information which matters to you and try to divorce yourself from (or at least understand) any emotions arising in you as you read (these come from authors, which gives you a clue about their inner world. The emotions may be their own but also may be carried on from elsewhere).

 

I think capital preservation should be considered key when you've got a good position of 3000 USD per month coupled to your situation.

 

I'm happy to give links to what I read.

 

Critically, the diet and gentle exercise may be pivotal to longevity when the limit is set by a low pancreatic reserve. In this situation, the approach to management warrants some finesse with meds while tackling the stress on the reserves. Can your beloved make you the food you need? Can you walk some km's per day?

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