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Woolf

Another Low Pressure Area ?

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mpt1947

I tried to keep up with the last storm that came through - isn't this a map of air currents?  Does it indicate moisture - different colors and what not?

right now sitting on my porch, there appears to be no breeze at all  - calm before the storm?  I'll keep one eye open and let you experts lead me.

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Headshot

What is really interesting on that windspeed map is the winds blowing out of Siberia and Mongolia all the way down the South China Sea. That might explain why it was so cool today.

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Tullioz

Wondering if this twister could develop into another typhoon

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-216.30,3.96,1823

 

That one should fizzle out as it moves west, but there will be another one in its wake which could develop into something significant. Here is the GFS model output for next weekend. Looks like it would affect the Philippines sometime between the 28th-30th and looks to be a big rain maker even if it does not develop into a typhoon. 

 

post-15209-0-57916900-1419176382_thumb.jpg

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

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A_Simple_Man

 

 

That one should fizzle out as it moves west, but there will be another one in its wake which could develop into something significant

 

Going by the past, typhoon season is over.  Do you really expect another one down the road?  It would sure shock a few people.

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Peter C

see how it could develop by end of the week:

 

http://earth.nullschool.net should zoom and press "earth" to see the changes

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Tullioz

Going by the past, typhoon season is over.  Do you really expect another one down the road?  It would sure shock a few people.

 

Yeah, officially the season ha ended, but in the past there have been typhoons that have affected the Philippines in every month of the year. This next system may or may not become a typhoon, but it will likely cause some trouble never the less. It has been modeled for several days now and it is now within 5 days, so it looks like a good bet that someone will see some serious flooding at the very least. Right now, according to the very latest run of the GFS, Northern Mindanao/Southern Visayas looks to be the target, but that could change as we get closer to the weekend. The maps below shows the forecast position of the system on Sunday Morning and the total rainfall from Saturday morning through Sunday night. 7 or 8 inches of rain in 36-48 hours can cause a lot of problems if this forecast verifies. 

 

post-15209-0-39999900-1419232384_thumb.jpg

Edited by Tullioz

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Jawny

I've always considered there is a possibility of bad weather each month. Here is last year's summary, beginning in January. Not all bad weather becomes a cyclone, but may still result in signal 1 or more.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Pacific_typhoon_season

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Jawny

I was interested in the frequency of storms in the Philippines and did some Google research. I ran across this excellent summary of how cyclones develop. May be useful to bookmark for future reference.....the next time we get warned about some weather pattern that will mess up our lives.

 

 

Weather.com.ph/typhoon/climatology

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Tullioz

The low pressure area is still on track to bring a lot of rain to northern Mindanao over the weekend. Looks like this area will see between 6 and 8 inches of rain in a relatively short period of time. It is still uncertain as to whether or not this will become a tropical storm (A typhoon looks unlikely at this point), but that much rain can be disastrous never the less in the mountainous terrain of the Philippines. Seems like PAGASA should at least be telling people in that area to watch the weather forecast for the weekend as it could negatively affect many. 

 

 

post-15209-0-12207300-1419359932_thumb.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

 

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Woolf

LPA spotted east of Mindanao, says Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau is monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) next week.

The LPA was spotted 1,000 kilometers east of Mindanao, Glaiza Esculiar, weather forecaster of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) told INQUIRER.net Wednesday night.

Esculiar said the LPA may enter PAR on December 27 and would be called “Seniang” once it develops into a tropical storm.

She said the weather bureau is not leaving the possibility that the LPA may grow into a typhoon.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/659175/lpa-spotted-east-of-mindanao-says-pagasa#ixzz3MpOX6CRL
 

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