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BossHog

TS Ruby (Hagupit)

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Jeepney

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20141201_2314_mtsat2_x_vis1km_high_22WHA

 

 

 

wp222014_14120112-120214.gif?resize=640%

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colemanlee

 

 

Uncertainy continues to plague forecasters with 22W Hagupit

 

Maybe its just me, but did anybody see anything he did have confidence in?  I counted six models he had low confidence in and none he had confidence in? WTF why have models?  Maybe he was waiting for a Ouija board....

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arentol

 

 

I counted six models he had low confidence in and none he had confidence in

 

I have confidence that he has no confidence.

 

...other than the odd prognosticating, he's a great source of info! By the way, Hagupit will be renamed Seniang when it formally becomes a typhoon. It may or may not hit Cebu directly, too early to tell.

 

 

Aren

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colemanlee

Trouble with it hitting Cebu is it would pass over us first LOL, I dont have a problem with Typhoons in general, lots come through here, but since Yolanda, I promise most Filipinos here will be in mass panic mode if we do get it....

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BossHog

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Again, the latest from the JMA.

 

Other updates should be out shortly.

 

Be interesting to see if some kind of consensus will start to form.

 

Btw, JTWC has this storm at a peak intensity of 130 knots

 

which is a strong category four and just six knots shy of a super typhoon.

 

post-5791-0-20596200-1417505963_thumb.jpg

Edited by BossHog

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Jawny

This should be an interesting week to see what sort of reaction will come as the storm approaches. My child is anticipating travel to Samar from Leyte starting on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if the DEPED will make some sort of announcement or if I will have to make my own judgement call. I can assure you, I would not want to be on the road after I saw what happens with Yolanda. Even this week, a small amount of wind came through and toppled some of the new replacement poles, across the highway!

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BossHog

post-5791-0-72390600-1417506869_thumb.gif

 

post-5791-0-31608500-1417508821_thumb.png

Edited by BossHog

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to_dave007

Shit.. latest predictions have it turning south not north. And my flight is due to arrive Mactan at noon on the 7th.

Edited by to_dave007

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Tin

Will be moving to the mountains by Wednesday. Better be safe than sorry :)

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Hy H

We are booked fly Cebu to Camiguin Island on the 10th....Bugger.

 

 Hopefully it will fizz out and land nowhere. 

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KennyF

We are booked fly Cebu to Camiguin Island on the 10th....Bugger.

 

 Hopefully it will fizz out and land nowhere. 

It's pretty dismal here on Camiguin but so far no storm.

It rains (a lot) most nights but the days are usually clear and sunny.

 

I think by the 10th you should be OK to fly in.

It's rare that they cancel.

 

KonC

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Jeepney

 

 

I promise most Filipinos here will be in mass panic mode if we do get it....

 

Do you understand?

Why panic, when it is there?

Exactly!

That is why people like Bosshog, and many others, are looking at all possibilities, and who wants to know, is alerted!

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Tullioz

Yesterday I was not too concerned about this system making landfall anywhere in the Philippines, but looking at the trends in modeling (Even the GFS is trending closer to the Philippines with each run), it now appears more likely. I have created a graphic based on the forecast track that was issued yesterday to compare to today's position. Two things to notice: The system has not gained as much latitude foretasted (The red dots indicate actual positions) and if you look at the updated forecast track as opposed to yesterday's the turn to the North is not as pronounced at the end of the forecast period as it was yesterday. Definitely a system to keep an eye on.

 

post-15209-0-82571700-1417516908_thumb.jpg

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arentol

I think it's best for everyone to prepare for the worst. I recall visiting Bogo post-Yolanda and it was sheer devastation... trees literally sliced in half. I remember wondering what would Cebu City be like if Yolanda veered a bit further south -- a chilling thought!

 

I also remember, not-so-fondly, that the local Philippine news spent all their time covering the pork barrel scandal in Manila... right up to the very moment that Yolanda hit. It was as if the news stations, based in Luzon, were on another planet; almost as if Visayas didn't exist.

 

So, I suppose what I am trying to say is that us expats/foreigners, on the whole, have a keener interest in these sorts of events than the locals do. We are all truly on our own here in many respects. It's better to step-up, take command, and prepare for the worst... even in the face of your wife/in-laws looking at you as if you're crazy (e.g., "But it's not raining now!" as the typhoon barrels in...). With knowledge comes responsibility, as the saying goes, and it may be wise to act now in preparation for what may (or may not) happen in the coming days.

 

 

Cheers,

Aren

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Woolf

 

 

(The red dots indicate actual positions)

 

What do you mean by actual positions ?

 

The red "dots" are  predicted path, path could be anywhere within the shaded area

 

the last indicated actual position is 02 dec 0600 zulu

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