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No wait, P48.60 this am!!! LOL

 

 

Bob ,

 

I am assuming the rate you mentioned is street rate there in Cebu this am . Interesting since the current official rate is shown as 48.1209 as of this minute on xe.com . Of course the Philippine market has not yet opened so we will see what happens , particulary in the first hour . I suspect the dollar will gain since the us market lost 2.5% yesterday based on earnings reports . Intel and Yahoo particulary were down and since the Philippines biggest export is electronics ( components ) they may boost the dollar even more .

 

Of no particular interest to anyone outside of Cagayan De Oro i suppose but the street changers here don't always follow the market the way you might expect . I frequently get a better rate at the bank than on the street but maybe there is just more dollars here than needed ? Hell , i just found out that the Philippine stock market is only open 3 hours a day , 9:30 - 12:30 . Kind of makes you wonder ? :D

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The AUD has truly been rogered in the alley behind the NYSE. Ever heard a kangaroo squeal?

 

We'll see how this pans out. There is a view circulating that the flight to the USD is akin to the tide going out before the tsunami of inflation, when after the flight to T-bonds, the USD value falls in the setting of massively printing US dollars back in the states, ending in exodus from bonds in the face of declining yields, translating into a falling USD.

 

But, also, a counterview, that the same thing did not happen to the yen when Japan suffered in the early 90s. It got long term deflation.

 

But to give an idea of how unpredictable ( read "volatile") the situation is, just have a think about how oil doubled per barrel from $70 usd to $140 usd and then all the way to $70...all in just the last year. Consider the radical parallels with the USD. Its gone from almost parity with the kangaroo, to now on its way to buy one, get one free, in just 3 months. It may go to 40c aud to 1 usd in the near term. That's dramatic.

 

It's fair to jibe in and say who really knows, except those who were right in hindsight.

 

Something that has taught and served me is the disposition of considering bad outcomes and managing risk.

 

If inflation hits the Phils, it will hit oil. It's only a matter of time anyway with Peak Oil. The Phils is a 7000+ island archipelago where transportation carries unique logistics.

 

China has the money to pay for oil and will drive up price with declining world oil reserve. It has made friends with Russia and Iran too. Oil will go to China. You have the money and you get the resource. The effect will be aggravated by inflation, thereby potentially leading to hyperinflation of the oil price. Everything is dependent on transportation cost.

 

The Phils does not have a big currency reserve and can't compete with it's financially big neighbours. But it does have lots of undeveloped resources, possibly oil, as it is a very fertile place, many millions of years ago a single land mass, so potentially lots of kerogen. It has lots of copper and gold potential in any case. But the sovereign risk in the setting of other places with less risk has not attracted business. For example, Oceana Gold, with a potentially truly massive gold reserve, is near capitulation in the face of sovereign risk issues for investors. But the salience of risk changes when your survival is at hand.

 

The Phils is fragile in the sense of no social security in the face of inflation of prices. The Jeepney will be much more than 5 pesos. But the price of rice is culturally non-negotiable. And hungry people fight. The Phils has a strong history of civil unrest and frequent regime change. Those of you there now should consider your positions if inflation translates into basic commodity price rise, unless the rate of growth in the country keeps rising in such a fashion as to counterweight the effects on the price of basic goods.

 

The Phils is armed and not shy of using the military to suppress unrest. The law is "who you know". Don't underestimate this. Bob knows it. Looking after your filipino relatives is as important as ever in such circumstances, and cultivating your filipino connections in power, such as the police.

 

Those in Mindanao should be especially alert for changes in hardship caused by rises in prices of essential goods.

 

I am watching keenly for the sake of my filipina.

Edited by breakfast
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smokey

49.300 to 1 at e mall today... this was at NOON today and now at night it says 47.120 is the BSP getting into the forex again.. of couse they would use borrowed money.. well the 47 is the yahoo rate but xe says 49.397 i sure hope yahoo is wrong...

Edited by robert51
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smokey

today at raintree money changer .... 49.7 to the dollar...

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MattFromGA

I got 50 to 1 2 days ago in Feunte circle.

 

All the doom-and-gloom attitudes about the future is futile. People who are "right" about the future are so because they guessed. If 1 million people guess about what the future will hold, for sure someone will guess fairly close, but its still a guess.

 

It seems like lots of people, including some of those on this board, like to read fear mongering news and buy into it. NOBODY knows the future. Acting like you've got some insight or "modeling system" that will give you an edge of the future is the equivalent of a pacifier. For ever person who "predicted the future" there are thousands who got it wrong.

 

Dont let negative emotions drive your mental state. Any personal success coach will tell you that is one of the biggest killers to success. So, if you want to kill a few years off your life span, just keep worrying about every twist and turn; keep reading the gloom news. What good does it do anyway? Are you able to truly act on your fears?

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eggnoggin

Inflation is for sissies :D The real fun starts when people begin to to buy only what they need for basic sustenance... and the price for the goodies that get us thru the "broken doors of today" begin to spiral downward :D

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sorry for fearmongering guys, but well it really is kinda bad if you had any money in equities :D

 

the latest views from moneyandmarkets.com are that money will flow from bonds (t-bonds) into stocks again soon

 

i don't mind saying my stocks have been cut down significantly (diversified chinese stocks, gold miners and commodity miners), so that's my position. I'm no Buffett.

 

it's confusing to hear consistently the advice and explanations from the advisers you pay money to keep saying the same thing, while your investments tank..namely that there is a long term commodity bull market and that Asian equities and commodities are a good long term proposition

 

i'm not buying in for a while now. I'll wait for inflation.

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MattFromGA

I was raised to expect the market to act like a roller coaster. If you put money in the market, you are taking risk. All investments will go down eventually. I remember how much people were saying the exact same things back in 2001.

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mattwilkie
I was raised to expect the market to act like a roller coaster. If you put money in the market, you are taking risk. All investments will go down eventually. I remember how much people were saying the exact same things back in 2001.

 

But the thing is the market will always recover people assume its all going down the drain but it will move new markets open all the time. There is a reason why there is a term "old money" and it will stay that way. Riding out the storm for sunny days.

 

If you look at the UK economy whats happend?

 

House prices have dropped *but will level out*

Repossession is up but will slowly recover. *Govt are stepping in trying to help people hold onto the houses which in turn stops the houses dropping in value*

UK is pretty stable on exports as most of the products are "essential" movement is little.

Construction industry is stagnant *but the truth is there is a lack of houses in the UK by at least 1million households due to the population rise*.

 

Sterling has dropped drastically as a wake up call has happend for what everyone already knew but it effects markets. *IT WILL RECOVER*

 

 

The ripples are heading outwards with recession a lot of people assume its all black and white but contracts are months or years and if halted there are heavy penalities so it takes time to stop production and accept no extra orders for export (which is what Asia is about to feel heavily from the WEST lack of demand). This will level out the economies worldwide to a similar state as before.

 

Will it effect the Peso ? you bet.. I can see a movement in the Peso that isnt going to work in the dollars favour the dollar is going to drop sterling will level out around 80 - 84

 

How will it effect "YOU" is the big question. Personally i think its going to work to my benefit short term. For construction etc. but long term i dont know.

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