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Paul

Will we see 50 to $1 again? Or, an optimistic 55 to $1?

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jai_ren

nobody is hoping for any natural disaster but it would be a total idiot that would think that a massive earthquake rocks the biggest island in the Philippines and hammers the economic base of the whole country, which will happen someday, is not going to cause the peso to totally nosedive. It's not all rice and coconuts up there, like the areas that were devastated by the typhoon were. It could totally destroy the economy for decades.

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Skywalker

 

 

The upward trend of the pound had already been established based upon economics.

 

Getting there.  The general confidence in the UK economy has risen since before Christmas.  That has made the GBP generally stronger against a basket of currencies, not just the Peso.

 

The gap between the value of the Peso and the GBP has really only marginally been effected by the recent bad weather.

 

Regardless of who whippy was talking to on the day of the typhoon, and what was said.  Anybody with a basic understanding of economics could have predicted the movements in the relative currencies.  Here's mine.  The Peso will continue to weaken slightly, while the UK economy will show greater signs of recovery.  I fully expect the GBP to strengthen to about 78 - 80 Pesos by April.

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spooks

 

Getting there.  The general confidence in the UK economy has risen since before Christmas.  That has made the GBP generally stronger against a basket of currencies, not just the Peso.

 

The gap between the value of the Peso and the GBP has really only marginally been effected by the recent bad weather.

 

Regardless of who whippy was talking to on the day of the typhoon, and what was said.  Anybody with a basic understanding of economics could have predicted the movements in the relative currencies.  Here's mine.  The Peso will continue to weaken slightly, while the UK economy will show greater signs of recovery.  I fully expect the GBP to strengthen to about 78 - 80 Pesos by April.

yes but does this make you like me.

 

" it would be a total idiot that would think that a massive earthquake rocks the biggest island in the Philippines and hammers the economic base of the whole country, which will happen someday, is not going to cause the peso to totally nosedive."

 

time this guy had his cones packed away and headed off back to the sunset,

 

A boor with continuing Boorish behavioural traits

Edited by Paul
removed duplicated quotes
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Ozepete

More to do with a strengthening US$ and the Brit pound as both economies improve rapidly especially the UK. 

 

And for anyone hoping for another Philippines disaster just to bolster their income by a few miserable peso, you are nothing but a pathetic selfish bastard.

Edited by Ozepete
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thebob

 

 

the upward trend of the pound had already been established based upon economics.

 

Economics can only be applied to what has already happened. It cannot be applied to future events because they are in flux.

 

Previous events are in no way an indication of future performance.

 

The best you can do is predict what people "think" will happen. The stock market is only a gamble on the confidence people have in particular companies.

 

Forex futures are only a estimation of the confidence "people" have in the performance of a currency.

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spooks

"Economics can only be applied to what has already happened. It cannot be applied to future events because they are in flux."

 

When taken in isolation against the pesos, it really does highlight the impact of flux. One economy has undertaken structural reform to encourage economic growth . The other continues to refuse to consider such structural reform because their Constitution is way to precious. One needs a very big dose of flux.

 

Trending suggests that there will be continued improvement. then again I am just not trendy

Edited by spooks
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jai_ren

 

 

And for anyone hoping for another Philippines disaster just to bolster their income by a few miserable peso, you are nothing but a pathetic selfish bastard.

nobody is 'hoping', for anything of the sort. But a big earthquake definitely IS going to hit Luson someday. Could be tomorrow. Could be 100, or 200 years from now. And when it does, considering that particular island isn't just a few million rice and coconut farmers and their dependents who were the people that were stricken by the recent typhoon, but produces between a third and a half of the wealth of the Philippines, it is going to be devastating. 'Hoping'' or 'not hoping', doesn't come into it when it is a near total certainty like that.  The only question is when.

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Skywalker

Back to the topic.

 

I made my prediction based on my observation of economic pressures.  But it could be as reliable as reading tea leaves in a cup.  

Anyone else going out on a limb?

Edited by Skywalker

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Paul

Dang, one day, I may actually be able to afford to go back there and live in the city again. 

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Cgu

Currencies are hard to predict. Of course, Yolanda will put a strain on the Philippines, but overall their economy is sound and their current account balance is still fine. The balance of payment will suffer a little as I think some investors will take out some money. Overall the peso should not weaken too much, unless the goverment wants to get in line with the weakend yen (Japan is still the biggest trading partner).

 

So, rationally the peso should not weaken more than 50.

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NHANORAK

Back to the topic.

 

I made my prediction based on my observation of economic pressures.  But it could be as reliable as reading tea leaves in a cup.  

Anyone else going out on a limb?

I think currency prediction is even harder than stock market prediction. But so you're not alone in being embarased later this year I'll go 49-50 by august. GBP goes to 78-79 by then. Based on strengthening US economy with maybe funds coming from China to the US. Uk has had such a good run, it's surely got to slow.

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NOSOCALPINOY

I think all of the world currency traders have put their crystal balls away for the duration! Much easier flipping a coin nowadays, or not!  

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GoHuk

There's a load of great posts here and an unusual consensus of opinion.  The situation a few months ago (say 15 months), when the Dollar was about 40:1 and Sterling was 60:1, was a result of the credit crisis in the West, compounded by the fiasco in Europe when two or three countries had to be bailed out.  The Philippines was relatively unscathed and experienced a surge inflow of hot money (a safe temporary[?] haven) that together with spectacular (albeit low base) GDP figures resulted in a strong Peso.

 

Given that the PH is a consumer economy supported by OFW remittances (the manufacturing sector is embarrassingly small) and given the size of the US and European economies, it was not a matter of 'if' the Western currencies would strengthen but 'when' and 'by how much.' 

 

If you examine the graphs of the western currencies against the Peso you can see there is no evidence that the natural disasters affected the situation one way or the other: the Peso was weakening before Yolanda and has continued to weaken at the same rate during and after.  The shenanigans of the politicians here has not given the Philippines a good reputation and FDI remains trivial; the harm they are doing to this country is long term! 

 

So where is the ceiling?  Who knows?  Skywalker's an optimist.  80:1 or 85:1 for Sterling?  Maybe if the Bank of England raises the interest rate - I don't think regaining the triple-A rating will affect things too much.  50:1 for the Dollar?  Yes definitely and not too far off.  The Dollar is lagging, perhaps because of recent tomfoolery over budget approval in Congress, but it will catch up

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Skywalker

 

 

Skywalker's an optimist.  80:1 or 85:1 for Sterling?

 

I wasn't that optimistic!  I said 78 to 80 by the spring.  I certainly believe that is likely.

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GoHuk

I wasn't that optimistic!  I said 78 to 80 by the spring.  I certainly believe that is likely.

 

Sorry, I was relying on my memory; you can only refer back to posts on a previous page by opening another browser tab and for once I didn't bother. 

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