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Philippines is top spot for risk of homicide for Americans : almost twice as risky as anywhere else


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udonthani

http://www.tempo.com.ph/2013/12/rp-leads-in-american-homicide-deaths/#.UsTo5_u5idZ

 

RP leads in American homicide deaths

 

 

NEW YORK – The Philippines leads the countries where Americans have died from homicides, although a new study shows more US citizens abroad died from road accidents than from violence or disease.

 

Homicides occurred most often in the Philippines, at a rate of 21 per million visits. Seven Americans were murdered in that country in 2007 and 11 in 2008. The remaining top-five countries for intentional deaths were Columbia, with 13.7 intentional deaths per million American visits; the Dominican Republic, with 11 deaths per million; and Thailand and Morocco, each with about 5.5 intentional deaths per million visits.

But with the exception of the Philippines, more Americans died from road crashes in all of the 160 countries surveyed than from homicides.

 

Between 2003 and 2009, more Americans died abroad from crashes involving cars or motorcycles than from homicide or terrorist events, the researchers write in the journal Injury Prevention.

 

Money spent on public health interventions related to homicides “has apparently been spent successfully,” Dr. David Bishai told Reuters Health.

 

Bishai, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Maryland, led the new study. (Reuters)

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So there should be a market for "I Am Canadian"  T-Shirts in Phils?

Personally, I haven't killed any Americans in 2014 but the year's not even 40 hours old.   Any more political whinging in the bar when normal people are enjoying a cold one and the tropical views an

So you are saying that it is safer for Americans to visit the Philippines than to live in Chicago?

A_Simple_Man

So there should be a market for "I Am Canadian"  T-Shirts in Phils?

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udonthani

not a surprise to me at all. There was a thread about it a few months ago. The State Department publishes figures of all (or supposedly all) Americans that die of non-natural causes, in each country, and you can tell without even looking all that closely that the figures fo the Philippnes for homicides are much higher than anywhere else. You could even tell from looking at the State Department lists, that only in the Philippines, do more people die from homicide than from auto accidents, which the article also confirms is true.

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InternetTough

The study has an unusual way of counting murders---"per million visits". Would it count the murder of an American resident here as belonging to the "per million visits" total or would it be excluded? The usual way of counting murders is "per hundred thousand per year". I'd be curious as to the number of murders of residents and de facto residents here per hundred thousand per year. It seems like they just counted the murders of Americans and put them above the total number of visits per year---and forgot that there are hundreds of thousands of long-term expats here.

 

The long term expat, accustomed to avoiding Angeles City, might have a much lower expectation of getting murdered per day than the true visitors.

 

 

The most accurate measure of the murder rate would be the number of murders over the number of days in-country. That would adjust for differences in the numbers of permanent residents and tourists from country to country.

 

I moved here in 2011 and haven't left the country in that time. I suppose that I have visited the Philippines one (1) time, according to that study.

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RogerDuMond

So you are saying that it is safer for Americans to visit the Philippines than to live in Chicago?

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InternetTough

here are the State Department stats

 

http://www.travel.state.gov/law/family_issues/death/death_600.html?country=0

 

it is just obvious that there are more murders of Americans in the Philippines compared to other causes of death than anywhere else.

I checked the number of Americans murdered in the Philippines from December 2012 to December 2013---they only had five listed. They weren't kidding that their list should not be considered a complete list!

 

Considering the hundreds of thousands (just what is the exact figure?) of Americans residing in the Philippines on a de facto permanent basis, the five figure is utterly insignificant. In other words, the true murder rate is still a mystery. I lived in San Bernardino, California in the early 1990s when the murder rate was 47 per 100,000 per year. If there are 200,000 permanent or de-facto permanent American residents in the Philippines, there would have to be close to 100 Americans murdered per year to equal San Bernardino in the early 1990s.

 

 

I checked Mexico in the same time frame---18 homicides of Americans.

Afghanistan (EXCLUDING terrorist actions)-6

 

Both of them beat the Philippines.

 

Tiny El Salvador had 3 murders of Americans and the Dominican Republic had 4. I doubt that either of those countries have numbers of permanent US residents approaching that of the Philippines.

 

Again, to get a true picture of the actual threat, one needs to know the ratio of murders to days-in-country, totalled. Countries with a lot of long-term expats will look worse according to a simple count-the-murders per million visits methodology---or even a simple count-the-murders methodology.

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udonthani

I checked the number of Americans murdered in the Philippines from December 2012 to December 2013---they only had five listed. They weren't kidding that their list should not be considered a complete list!

 

Considering the hundreds of thousands (just what is the exact figure?) of Americans residing in the Philippines on a de facto permanent basis, the five figure is utterly insignificant. In other words, the true murder rate is still a mystery.

 

 

I checked Mexico in the same time frame---18 homicides of Americans.

Afghanistan (EXCLUDING terrorist actions)-6

 

Both of them beat the Philippines.

 

Tiny El Salvador had 3 murders of Americans and the Dominican Republic had 4.

 

Again, to get a true picture of the actual threat, one needs to know the ratio of murders to days-in-country, totalled. Countries with a lot of long-term expats will look worse according to a simple count-the-murders per million visits methodology---or even a simple count-the-murders methodology.

I checked the numbers rather more thoroughly than you did and in fact did a topic about it here in July.

 

http://www.livingincebuforums.com/topic/61923-the-philippines-seems-the-likeliest-place-for-foreigners-to-get-murdered/?hl=+state%20+department%20+homicides

 

Philippines 11 out of 28 : 39%

Malaysia 2 out of 14 : 14%

Thailand 1 out of 25 : 4%

Vietnam 1 out of 25 : 4%

Indonesia 0

Cambodia 0

Laos 0 (but Laos seems to have a high proportion of 'drug related' cases)

 

some other random countries

 

Mexico 7 out of 21 : 33%

Russia 3 out of 26 : 12%

Korea 2 put of 24 : 8%

Brazil 1 out of 25 : 4%

Japan 0

UK 0

France 0

Germany 0

 

it is not absolute number where the Philippines stands out as obviously there are many more Americans in Mexico at any one time then the Philippines. That is not what you should be looking for. It should number of homicides COMPARED TO OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH.

 

and seems to me the Philippines is easily the leader there. There is always at least one homicide and sometimes two or three or even more on every page of the State Department site.

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BossHog

Personally, I haven't killed any Americans in 2014 but the year's not even 40 hours old.

 

Any more political whinging in the bar when normal people are enjoying a cold one and the tropical views and this is likely to change.

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samatm

REMEMBER  ALL THOSE PINOYS carrying US passports Are count ed as US citizens.  What might seem like domestic a dispute at a fiesta  between local drunks were one guy gets popped..could actually be a US Citizen getting it.    Hence numbers are skewed.     Its certainly not a reflection of US tourists getting off the plane and happening to fall to murder while away.

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InternetTough
I checked the numbers rather more thoroughly than you did and in fact did a topic about it here in July.  

 

"5" is the big number you are going on about?* The topic title is, "Philippines is top spot for risk of homicide for Americans: almost twice as risky as anywhere else".  But the risk of homicide relates to the total number of murders per 100,000 man years in country, not to the ratio of murders to non-murder deaths.

 

Some countries might have only one death of an American, and no traffic or disease related deaths. According to your methodology, that would be the most dangerous country in the world for murder risk for Americans! Your methodology shows the odds (based on past performance) of a given death, ALREADY ACHIEVED, to have been a murder---it does not show the murder risk itself.

 

What is the actual number of Americans murdered per 100,000 man years spent in the Philippines? I have no idea. The numbers reported to the State Department are quite low, in the source you cited. But they themselves say that it is not a complete list.

 

*For December 2012 to December 2013 from the US State Department website you recommended.

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Nangulo

 

 

Money spent on public health interventions related to homicides “has apparently been spent successfully,” Dr. David Bishai told Reuters Health.

 

 

What the hell does that mean?

 

 

I, too, find the numbers misleading.  From InternetTough"  I moved here in 2011 and haven't left the country in that time. I suppose that I have visited the Philippines one (1) time, according to that study."  I would think you visited the country once in 2011, but never visited the country at all in 2012 or 2013.  There must be a correlation to immigration records, one would think.

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smokey

The study has an unusual way of counting murders---"per million visits". Would it count the murder of an American resident here as belonging to the "per million visits" total or would it be excluded? The usual way of counting murders is "per hundred thousand per year". I'd be curious as to the number of murders of residents and de facto residents here per hundred thousand per year. It seems like they just counted the murders of Americans and put them above the total number of visits per year---and forgot that there are hundreds of thousands of long-term expats here.

 

The long term expat, accustomed to avoiding Angeles City, might have a much lower expectation of getting murdered per day than the true visitors.

 

 

The most accurate measure of the murder rate would be the number of murders over the number of days in-country. That would adjust for differences in the numbers of permanent residents and tourists from country to country.

 

I moved here in 2011 and haven't left the country in that time. I suppose that I have visited the Philippines one (1) time, according to that study.

do they call you the spin doctor?  How many people from the Philippines were killed in Detroit compared to Americans .... 

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InternetTough
It should number of homicides COMPARED TO OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH.   and seems to me the Philippines is easily the leader there. There is always at least one homicide and sometimes two or three or even more on every page of the State Department site.

 

I have checked the site. Mexico has 18 murders for the period December 2012 to December 2013. 

This was out of 50 deaths of Americans in Mexico, total. 

Murder rate per total death rate (via non-natural causes)= 36%

 

The Philippines, same time period as above:

5 murders out of 13 deaths

Murder rate per total death rate = 38.46% (Okay, the Philippines is a tiny bit more than Mexico as far as this figure is concerned---flawed figure that it is)

 

El Salvador

3 murders out of 4 deaths

Murder rate per total death rate = 75%

 

Panama

1 murder out of 2 deaths

Murder rate per total death rate = 50%

 

Haiti

5 murders out of 11 deaths

Murder rate per total (non-natural) death rate=45%

 

Jamaica

7 murders out of 18 deaths

Murder rate per total (non-natural) death rate = 38.88%

 

Guatemala

5 murders out of 8 deaths

Murder rate per total (non-natural) death rate = 62.5%

 

South Africa

1 murder out of 1 death

Murder rate per total (non-natural) death rate = 100%

 

 Aha! I have found it! According to the methodology of % of murders out of total non-natural deaths = murder risk, South Africa is the most dangerous country in the world for Americans as far as risk of getting murdered.

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udonthani

I have checked the site. Mexico has 18 murders for the period December 2012 to December 2013.

 

I checked the numbers for like at least 5 years, not just one year when I did the topic.

 

and i also checked the Philippines against all the other south east Asian countries with which it has the most in common, rather than far away countries much closer in proximity to the USA like Guatemala. Against all those, i.e. Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc the Philippines is MILES AHEAD with homicides.

 

The key question, as was pointed out in the article, is why are so many Americans homicide victims in the Philippines compared to auto accidents, when with the other countries, auto accidents generally outnumber homicides?

 

Samatm has a bit of a point perhaps in that some of the murder victims may well be pinoy Americans, but that doesn't mean a right lot either really. As it is not as if the Philippines is the only country in the world that has a disapora that partly ends up in the USA and then may gravitate back to their home country. There are Thai Ams, as well as Fili Ams. But it still seems, compared to the other ways they die, Americans have a lot less chance of getting murdered in Thailand than they do in the Philippines. 

 

which surprised me. I thought that the two would be a lot closer than they are.

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