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BossHog

Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan)

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broden

hope everyone checks in as it comes to pass. 

 

 prepare best you can 

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Half Baked

I don't speak Japanese but I believe the translation is something like, "OH SHIT!"

 

 

Also for those following the tracking and don't know what a "knot" is in speed, according to Jimmy Buffett, I believe... A knot is pretty much like a mile per hour, but more expensive.

post-14689-0-60262200-1383702543_thumb.png

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battleborn

I have Sky Cable, they will have a storm update at 11am channel 502.

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Canuck Joe

This storm is the real deal, and models are now forecasting a Cat 5 when it makes landfall over either Samar or Leyte.  I would take the family and head south if I didn't think the locals would "borrow" everything left in my house once we were gone, so we will just bunker down and ride it out.  Stocking up on necessities, building a safe area in the house, putting some extra screws and sealant on the roof, cutting boards for the windows and briefing the wife on all possible scenarios.  As unfortunate and potentially dangerous as this situation might be, it's actually a very good chance to show our wives and partners how (most of) the first-world properly prepares for this sort of event.  Stay safe, everyone.

is your stuff really that valuable to you? Hire a man to watch it..tell him he gets payed when you get back if everything is there.

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Hy H
Dangerous Category 2 Typhoon Haiyan Headed For the Philippines
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2013 +33
Category 2 Typhoon Haiyan is rapidly intensifying as it steams west-northwest at 17 mph towards the Philippine Islands. Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a large and steadily organizing typhoon, with plenty of intense thunderstorms that are developing very cold cloud tops as they push high into the atmosphere. With warm waters that extend to great depth, low wind shear, and excellent upper-level outflow, there is nothing to keep Haiyan from growing into a 150 mph super typhoon by Thursday, and it may have a chance at becoming Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of 2013. Both the GFS and European models predict that Haiyan will hit the central Philippines between 3 - 6 UTC on Friday, and Haiyan will likely be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year. This is particularly true since Tropical Depression Thirty dumped heavy rains over the central Philippines Monday, which helped saturate the soils. This morning's 06Z run of the HWRF model (Figure 2) predicted that Haiyan would hit the Philippines as a Category 3 storm, bringing a 200-mile wide swath of 4 - 8 inches of rain.

haiyan-nov5.jpg
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Haiyan taken just before sunset at 6:57 UTC November 5, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

haiyan-rainfall-nov5.png
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 5, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 126-hour period ending at 12Z November 10, 2013. A 30-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines, with a 200-mile wide swath of the islands receiving 4 - 8" (red colors.) Image credit:NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

 

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mactanfamily

Ive seen about one of these low latitude storms come through per year the last 14 years I've lived here. Always Nov-Dec. Not always cat 5 but as mentioned before i've only seen about 3-4 of those go below Cebu, and they were forecast to hit Cebu direct. JTWC also has a habit of aiming its death cone directly at more populated areas more so than the other models.

 

Thats not to say it cant destroy this place. Ruping ripped nearly every roof off every house in Mactan 1990. There was no bridge and no power in Cebu City for months. This WILL happen again. I just dont think it is this one.

 

Be safe up north though.

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BossHog

Got a lot stronger since then, Hy Y...

 

seeing wind gusts forecasted at 325 kph and max wave heights at 35 feet.

 

Super Typhoon

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rainymike

Just keep in mind there is the wind damage potential from the typhoon that most will be concerned with. But flooding in low lying areas may be a problem as well especially after the last rains. Storm surge in coastal areas are another. And of course, mudslides in more mountainous regions. 

 

I'm glad to be on Mindanao now, but do expect a few gusts. Depending on their strength, may keep the kids home. 

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Salty Dog

Wednesday Update

 

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Canuck Joe

yes just posted it then noticed you had...this guy is a meteorologist and very very informative 

 

He is pissed at PAGASA lol....dont blame him.

Edited by Canuck Joe

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stevensanph

they are all getting very pissed at Pagasa.  This is another link I forgot (this guy is a forcaster for Japanese tv) 

https://www.facebook.com/Westpacwx

 

You've got to remember that this time last year pagasa completely missed the fact that Bopha would be Cat 5 on landfall, when the JTWC had warned it would hit at Cat 5 2 weeks earlier...  They've also been abysmal this year in correctly reporting wind speeds.  On TV this morning was this quote:

 

"PAGASA forecaster Buddy Javier, in an interview with dzMM, said Yolanda is still a tropical storm with 115 kph maximum sustained winds and 145 kph gusts. "

 

At the time of the quote it was already at Cat3 (200kph) and according to JTWC at Cat 4.

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stevensanph

And its now officially a Super Typhoon...

 

activetrack.gif

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no one

we are in northern mindanao 

and as i seen on the last storm that jumped up north not far from us while the predicted was going right over us 

il be watching to see where will it go 

cebu is most likely going to get hit just matter of how hard 

last years storm here was good to us so just hope for the best prepare for the worst 

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