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I just got home from a day trip to San Remegio / Bogo. We left at 8am this morning to bring supplies to family members there.   I'll be writing a detailed blog post along with photos tomorrow (I wil

Go away mate, what a stupid remark. You go tell that to people in Tacloban.

Just now getting power and internet restored.   Hope y'all got through it as unscathed as we did.   Playing catch-up since it's been a 36-hour information blackout.   We got through it okay. 4:3

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stevensanph

this has been on the long term models for 3 weeks now and has barely moved track.  It is looking very similar to Bopha last year in where it has formed and how accurate the models were so far off.

 

All the data points to this hitting PH as a strong cat 5 typhoon.  Could be anywhere from Bicol/Manila to North Mindanao right now, but typhoon force winds could extend for 100's of kms from the center if models are correct.  The models shifted slightly south yesterday morning, but have gone back a little further north this morning.  Generally this year typhoons have gone slightly further north than models predicted.  

 

I regularly check the latest model here - keep a close eye on this and Typhoon2000.  This is going to be a monster.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

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sheeesh the drama never ends around here, October = 7.2 quake,  November brings Cat 5 Super Typhoon....batten down the hatches fellas.

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Canuck Joe

100's of kms from the center if models are correct

 

 

100's of kms is half of the Philippins :(

Bopha was supposed to hit just south of Cebu but went south as we know. I was surprised the wind was not stronger in Cebu as it felt like a good steady 25 knots.

 

This will be a year to remember...take precautions people.

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Canuck Joe

sheeesh the drama never ends around here, October = 7.2 quake,  November brings Cat 5 Super Typhoon....batten down the hatches fellas.

I know eh...getting a little weary

Japan Met has it swinging north

 

1330-00.png

does not inspire confidence.

 

Last year i was in Davao wondering if we should return to Cebu since the models tracked it there. We went home and it went south....

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I know eh...getting a little weary

does not inspire confidence.

 

Last year i was in Davao wondering if we should return to Cebu since the models tracked it there. We went home and it went south....

 

 

Good move on your part.

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stevensanph

 

 

100's of kms is half of the Philippins

 

Yes... it is... if you look at the model prediction of the link I posted you'll see that 120km/h winds extend basically from mindanao to southern luzon on the latest track.  Wind shear is very low on the predicted track and surface temps very high so its almost perfect conditions for a strong typhoon.

 

The track will be dictated by how strong the high pressure currently over China stays...

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BossHog

 

 

sheeesh the drama never ends around here, October = 7.2 quake, November brings Cat 5 Super Typhoon

 

Last year it was a 7.7 quake and a Cat 5 Super typhoon.

 

Par for the course/

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Canuck Joe

Good move on your part.

had a 50/50 chance of it paying off....roll the dice.

 

good update

 

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BossHog

Beautiful day here and the storm's still about 1800 kms away.

 

But of course, the teachers cancelled elementary and high school today and told the students not to come back "until it's safe".

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SomeRandomGuy

 

 

But of course, the teachers cancelled elementary and high school today and told the students not to come back "until it's safe".

 

so no school ever?

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Beautiful day here and the storm's still about 1800 kms away.

 

But of course, the teachers cancelled elementary and high school today and told the students not to come back "until it's safe".

Yes I can't understand the over-reaction by schools regarding another day off school. The storm/typhoon isn't predicted to hit here until Thursday night.

 

There has already been 3 weeks of no school and kids are bored out of their minds.  Kids need structure and cancelling school again today doesn't make much sense when you look outside and see a perfect day.

 

What's the bet there will be no school for the rest of the week? Ridiculous decision!

Edited by Forex
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BossHog

To avoid confusion:

 

The international name is Haiyan and the local name is "Yolanda".

 

Really.

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bahalina buong

To avoid confusion:

 

The international name is Haiyan and the local name is "Yolanda".

 

Really.

It's only "Yolanda" until its hits my own personal "Area of Responsibility", then I shall christen it Typhoon DingDong   :)

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