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Will the earthquakes cool the buying and rental market?


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MoonDragon81

IT should bring some sellers down to earth. Their go her retirement fund.

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Well to give you the heads up from my side, we have got 4 clients wanting to move out of condos this last week, pretty scary Tuesday morning especially for some that live in older condo blocks. As far

But isn't it also true that 100% of highrises are still fine after the strongest earthquake ever recorded in this area. All buildings that collapsed are one/two story buildings. In addition some old h

This whole country is long over due for a property decrease/bubble pop. I actually get very concerned when a country where 80% live on less then 2 dollars a day look at condo;s being built and sold f

But isn't it also true that 100% of highrises are still fine after the strongest earthquake ever recorded in this area. All buildings that collapsed are one/two story buildings. In addition some old historical buildings, road and bridges were badly damaged.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_the_Philippines

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Davaoeno

The ultimate safety test for a building - let it experience an earthquake.  If its still standing afterwards it probably is safe .

 

[ unless of course a much bigger one comes along, in which case we are probably screwed anyway 

 

 

Now that I think about it , if I was the marketing manager of a Cebu condo building I would probably change all the marketing literature to say " EARTHQUAKE TESTED  AND PASSED  "  

Edited by Davaoeno
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A_Simple_Man

 

 

I am going to guess it will. I am going to guess it might now slow down the rental market for condos or even for three or more story houses, thus possibly slowing down the buying market as well.  

 

The reason I will guess the opposite is because I do not see many long term visitors or residents looking to buy or rent condos.  I see new arrivals looking at condos and these people do not take any past history into account.  They were not in Cebu for the earthquake so they will not consider earthquakes when buying or renting.  If they do think about it at all they will think that it has happened now so in the future there is not likely to be one.

 

So perhaps a short term hesitation but give it six months and it will be the same.

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Nah.. I don't think so. The Philippines is in the Ring of Fire so real-estate buyers already know that earthquakes are inevitable in the Philippines. As long as OFW's remmitance remains strong and there is no global recession, the real-estate sector of the Philippines will keep booming.

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The reason I will guess the opposite is because I do not see many long term visitors or residents looking to buy or rent condos.  I see new arrivals looking at condos and these people do not take any past history into account.  They were not in Cebu for the earthquake so they will not consider earthquakes when buying or renting.  If they do think about it at all they will think that it has happened now so in the future there is not likely to be one.

 

So perhaps a short term hesitation but give it six months and it will be the same.

 

I have been in Cebu in 5 story building when 6+ earthquake hit the area and still bought a highrise condo. In history has there been such incident that highrise has collapsed in Cebu ? Even just one ? This was the strongest earthquake ever recorded in this area so hope and should be so that not in this lifetime Cebu will be hit with same magnitude :thumbs_up: .

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smokey

the rentel and buying market will slow for certen. rememba if apartment billding has been hit by 7.2 earthq then it is a lot weeka than before. next time it mite only take a 7 for it to crumble down to nuthing

sure and the sky could open and thor could slam his mighty hammer on the earth.... life always goes on just maybe not with any of us..

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this is ph 

so nothing is going to change 

prices here are controlled by the rich and powerful and they dont need the money 

there might be less buyers and rentals but that will not make the prices to go down 

the price is already stupid 

to think of it this might even drive the price up as if the building with stand the last one it will be considered save and there for more exp :)

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InternetTough

In 1992 there was a strong quake in the High Desert region in California, the Landers quake. A whole lot of people put their houses on the market right after it. It definitely depressed the market there. It recovered a few years later.

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High rise Condos are the future, there must be maybe 100 High rise Condo developments now under-way in Manila (NCR) maybe more, and its clear to me that this trend is well established and not about to stop...think about it and the only conclusion you can come to is that the vast bulk of new housing in Manila will and can only be high rise condos.

 

---

 

Looking at the sale figures for the condo development i bought into its clear that the condos there are selling slowly with only 1 of 9 buildings at 90% sold even though 5 buildings are now at turn over stage, Condo management don't expect to sell out for another 3 or 4 years...they wont discount beyond the usual and seem ok with this situation, business as normal.

 

As for prices, real estate in Manila is cheap IMO.

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Brucewayne

Who goes to Haiti anyways? It's not like it is a premier tourist spot.

 The same can be said for the Philippines, it is known as the paradise for hillbillies, not the ultra rich.

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Brucewayne

When it's your time to check out, nothing will stop it. When it's time to go, it's time to go. I have believed that for years.

 Okay, then tempt fate if you wish, worked for James Cagney.

Wait a minute, he died in this one, didn't he?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjVWORC3Wcc

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjVWORC3Wcc&feature=player_detailpage

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Brucewayne

well i say what is the difference between a one story falling on you compared to a 3 story dead is dead... bubble how ? maybe the condo market that is all bank loans but the housing market i dont think so how can you have a bubble if there are no  loans.. my house has no cracks so its quality control or nothing our daughter is an engineer she said the signs of a possible problem is where the floor and the beam meet if there are cracks there and its not just skim coat there could be a problem .. our house was built with 25mm steel if i wanted i can go up another few floors.. doom and gloom when its your time nothing is going to stop it and it most likely on a bike then in a tall building 

 

I don't think you understand what a bubble is and banks are only one fo the victims of said bubble, not always part of the cause as you seem to believe.

A bubble is simply created when the quantity or price of something becomes so high that buyers dry up, therefore, the bubble pops.

That is where nobody builds and investors, buyers, suppliers and all related services dry up, because the market "popped" like a bubble, no more growth.

In this case the price will have to be drastically reduced to entice someone to buy and that is where hard sell has to come in.

There are a lot more people here using the hard sell technique than there were a few years ago, it works on some people, but I get pissed when anyone tries to pressure me into a deal.

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Davaoeno
A bubble is simply created when the quantity or price of something becomes so high that buyers dry up, therefore, the bubble pops.

 

now  I understand ! They raised the price of cigarettes in Vancouver to $12 a pack and the numbers of buyers dried up - so that was a bubble !!!  And when the bubble pops everyone will start buying cigarettes again .

 

I always wondered about that .

 

 

I notice you also said a bubble is when the quantity becomes so high that buyers dry up - so you are saying that if they make lots and lots of cigarettes there will be a bubble ?  And if Honda builds too many cars there will be a bubble in cars also ?

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Brucewayne

now  I understand ! They raised the price of cigarettes in Vancouver to $12 a pack and the numbers of buyers dried up - so that was a bubble !!!  And when the bubble pops everyone will start buying cigarettes again .

 

I always wondered about that .

 

 

I notice you also said a bubble is when the quantity becomes so high that buyers dry up - so you are saying that if they make lots and lots of cigarettes there will be a bubble ?  And if Honda builds too many cars there will be a bubble in cars also ?

 

Absolutely and without enough buyers, the workers who depend on restocking the products will be laid off, which is the popping of the bubble.

When the price is swelling to the absolute price that people won't pay, that is the bubble growing.

If anything sells well, then stops selling for almost any reason, the bubble has absolutely popped.

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