CebuKano 1,751 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 What good does predicting the rate do? Are there currency speculators here? Haha. Yes. Anyone that has a pension denomited in US dollars Time to start a new contest and leave off where Blaze did regarding what the peso to US dollar exchange rate will be in a year or so? I'll contribute 2,000 for any Ayala restaurant to the winner. Any other offers or interest? If so, I will start a seperate thread. Let us know.... you speculators.... Link to post Share on other sites
Brucewayne 3,803 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 easy to be spot on if you keep changing your prediction. sounds like they were spot off by predicting 42.50 at the end of the year. now in late june, when their prediction has already been surpassed (it was 43+) they've decided that 45 sounds better. nothing wrong with changing a prediction in light of new information but it doesn't really give you bragging rights for your predictive capacity. now that i look at your article more closely i see it is dated 2012. is that right? at that time the peso was in the middle of a rise from 43.6 to 41. so neither 42.5 nor 45 by the end of the (2012) sounds very spot on. but the numbers in the story seem to correspond better to 2013, wasn't there a contest here on linc for people predicting the rate at the end of the year? might have been last year, i can't find it. Sorry, I was half asleep when I posted that one and will find a newer report later. Link to post Share on other sites
Brucewayne 3,803 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Goldman Sachs is probably not the best source for financial info. They have been sued numerous times for posting false information and outright fraud. Most financial advisors are saying the dollar will be up around P50:$1 by the end of the first quarter of 2014. Goldman Sachs is probably not the best source for financial info. They have been sued numerous times for posting false information and outright fraud. Most financial advisors are saying the dollar will be up around P50:$1 by the end of the first quarter of 2014. It was LBG, not DBS, sorry but the two are sometimes closely linked together in a lot of articles and with my Swiss cheese memory, I missed part of what I was reading. BNY’s forecast for the 2013 exchange rate seems to be fairly close in line with DBS’s predictions. In contrast, Lloyds Banking Group expects the Peso to weaken to P45.50 versus the greenback by the end of 2012, according to an article in PinoyMoneyTalk.com. Link to post Share on other sites
Majorsco 3,400 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 This is the same garbage prediction that I saw at the end of last year when the Piso was gettiing stronger. Well the opposite is happening and, I don't think these predictions are worth the digital paper they're printed on 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SirMadrigal 340 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 If anyone believes that the Peso is gonna skyrocket I got some Iraqi Dinar for them as well, it is going to revalue to about $5USD for 1IQD (or so the interwebs tells me) Link to post Share on other sites
easy44 5,573 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 This is the same garbage prediction that I saw at the end of last year when the Piso was gettiing stronger. Well the opposite is happening and, I don't think these predictions are worth the digital paper they're printed on Absolutely. They are mental masturbation for the economists and usually bear little little resemblance to the final figure. They do, however, allow them to get their names into the media. Link to post Share on other sites
samatm 3,091 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Its a matter of follow the money.....When the developed nation's mkts were shaky, capital flowed out of those mkts into the developing nation's mkts like the philippines. Now that things are looking good in the US and Eurozone is settling down and China is slowing down , cash is fleeing the developing countries - like the Philippines. Its perception... If the continued printing of money in the US keeps the US market bubbly...more capital leaves to the US driving the USD-- Hence the Fed is kind of stuck as any moves to "taper" no matter how genius a move it would be an how great it would be to wean off the printing press- would be a short term blow to the market psyche. Once the mkts weather the reduced or ceased printing of money and the economy continues on growth spurt.. . the USD will further strengthen for two reasons. 1. reduced supply and 2 a growing robust economy w/o artificial monetized injections would further attract more capital from around the globe. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Bill H 6,576 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Bill H, on 01 Aug 2013 - 23:48, said: Soros is an expert in forcing change Then the world must now be exactly as he wants it. He's to some degree an opportunist, not God. Well, I guess you could call him that, but to me, the word Evil, is far more fitting. Link to post Share on other sites
SirMadrigal 340 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 (edited) Well, I guess you could call him that, but to me, the word Evil, is far more fitting. add Douche in there and you have my vote Edited August 3, 2013 by SirMadrigal Link to post Share on other sites
SirMadrigal 340 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Haha. Yes. Anyone that has a pension denomited in US dollars Time to start a new contest and leave off where Blaze did regarding what the peso to US dollar exchange rate will be in a year or so? I'll contribute 2,000 for any Ayala restaurant to the winner. Any other offers or interest? If so, I will start a seperate thread. Let us know.... you speculators.... im in, im a speculator 1 Link to post Share on other sites
CebuKano 1,751 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 im in, im a speculator Good deal. Should be fun. Any others? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
samatm 3,091 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Good deal. Should be fun. Any others? Im in.. better start a new thread or this will get buried. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Brucewayne 3,803 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 If anyone believes that the Peso is gonna skyrocket I got some Iraqi Dinar for them as well, it is going to revalue to about $5USD for 1IQD (or so the interwebs tells me) Ahh, but the China crisis plus U.S. growth should take us back to where we belong again, above 45 or higher for a good, long time. Link to post Share on other sites
Alan S 4,607 Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 If forecasting the currency rates was that simple, there would be far more billionairs around than there are. The original article came from Goldman Sachs, who make their money from the trades that their clients make (whether or not the trade makes a profit). They NEED people to trade, and dont really care what the outcome is. Just accept that it is a gamble unless you spend lots, yes LOTS, of time studying the market and then there is a chance, albeit a slim one, that you might just make some money. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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