Jump to content

Buy Gold!


Recommended Posts

Someone in this forum told us all about a year ago to invest in gold.  (WHEN IT WAS ALMOST ON THE HIGHES EVER PRICE).., unfortunately i can't find the thread anymore...

 

as some told him then, not a good idea..... 

 

 

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-15/the-price-of-gold-is-crashing-dot-heres-why

 

 

A chart of the crashing price of gold looks like a wedding ring rolling off a table. Gold futures for June delivery closed at $1,361 an ounce on the Comex in New York today, a drop of more than $200 in two sessions. Gold’s fall of 13 percent since April 11 was the biggest two-session decline since 1980.

Why is gold plunging? The most important factor is that global inflation is falling, reducing gold’s value as a hedge against rising prices. Gold bugs who were betting on an outburst of inflation are scrambling to reverse their bets and exit their gold positions at any price.

For consumers struggling to make ends meet, it may seem hard to believe that inflation is falling. But the evidence is clear from JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) global consumer price index, which covers more than 30 countries that collectively represent more than 90 percent of world economic output.

According to the JPMorgan index, global inflation peaked at 4 percent in 2011 and has fallen steadily since. Global prices in February were up only about 2.5 percent from a year earlier, the bank’s index says.

JPMorgan has two scenarios for what happens next. Its main one is based on a “bottom-up” collection of analysts’ forecasted price trends sector by sector around the world. That shows inflation rising very slightly from its current level for the rest of 2013. In contrast, JPMorgan’s “top-down” analysis, which is prepared by the banks’ economists and takes into account prices of commodity futures contracts, among other factors, shows inflation moving down closer to 2 percent in the second half of 2013.

The headline on JPMorgan’s report: “The slide in global inflation may not be over.”

Joseph Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview that the inflation decline is partly a matter of supply bottlenecks easing, which is a good thing, and demand growth slowing, which is not so good. Lupton said he’s not in the business of forecasting gold prices, which tend to be whipsawed by speculation more than other commodity prices are. Says Lupton: “Gold is an animal in and of itself.”

Last week Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that the retreat in gold was accelerating after the longest rally in nine decades.

“Anybody who did some buying before this big drop is probably in some pain,” Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion of assets as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, told Bloomberg News. “The perception is that gold is not really needed as a safe haven. People are looking at the stock market, and they’re stunned, and there’s no inflation. So people are saying, ‘What do we need gold for?’”

Edited by toshi
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 35
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Brucewayne

    5

  • Buko Beach

    5

  • smokey

    4

  • Skywalker

    4

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

It's peaks and troughs, and unfortunately you have bought as Gold enters a significant trough, with further to fall.     Your view that you will make 30% over the next 12 months is a fantasy, in my

I bought a small circular piece of gold ages ago.   It's a very expensive object to maintain.   Has cost me many many 1000x in upkeep considering what I paid for it.     Still, it's the best in

on the other hand you might have to hold it for 10 years to break even  !!

Buko Beach

GOLD  !!

 

I was somewhat surprised by the recent drop in the gold price. There was a big resistance level set at $1550USD per oz and when gold hit that level a few days ago I was kicking the tires on a couple of low-cost producers with alot of reserve and production upside. I did not buy anything last week and I am glad I waited. I was watching the spot price before the opening today (tuesday) and it was up $30USD so I placed an order and in 15 mins the order was filled and the gold price dipped $20USD. It turns out the futures contract price was coming due and alot of fund mangers in the US were selling gold to cover other shorts they have in the market.

 

Only time will tell if my decision to buy today was correct, but I invest with the Warren Buffett mantra, "buy steak when it's on sale" !! Buy when everyone else is jumping out the windows. If I have to hold for a year to get a 30% gain I will. That's alot better than any TD, ETF, bond, ect is paying these days.

 

 There was a gold topic started a few months ago but it was deleted or moved downstairs. Not sure this one will survive either.    

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Skywalker

It's peaks and troughs, and unfortunately you have bought as Gold enters a significant trough, with further to fall.  

 

Your view that you will make 30% over the next 12 months is a fantasy, in my opinion.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
smokey

the only trough i like is the dinner trough...  buy land they dont make any more dirt 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Buko Beach

It's peaks and troughs, and unfortunately you have bought as Gold enters a significant trough, with further to fall.  

 

Your view that you will make 30% over the next 12 months is a fantasy, in my opinion.

Well you are entitled to your opinion. But I respectfully disagree.

 

When I was kicking the tires on the gold stock in question last friday the price was almost 30% higher than the currect close. Current ranked street consensus on the 12month stock price is nearly double the current share price. Recently the company bought another miner and will spend the next few months integrating and increasing the gold estimates and reserves. If I get a 30% capitol gain I am happy and will take my profit and move on.

 

I think if gold stabilizes and the low-cost producer I bought releases resource upgrades as I think they will do, I could get my 30% without a loss of sleep.

 

Also as a side-note. This is my job. This is what I do. I buy and invest in the markets. I make a very good living. Nay-sayers are everywhere. I remember one time I was in the old Silver Dollar and I was chatting with one of the regulars and I told him I made XXXX that day because I sold a stock and he couldn't believe it. He was on a fixed pension. Another time back in 2008 during the financial meltdown I was in Bangkok and the markets were down over 800points the previous night and down big over the previous 9 months. I waited and waited until things were so cheap I jumped in and was buying things hand over fist. I had friends who told me I was crazy for buying. In the end they wished they had bought and were kicking themselves when the markets rebounded.

 

Anyways I can not show someone the path, they must find it and walk it themselves and in the end we are all accountable for our own actions. That's what makes a market, a buyer and a seller.

Edited by Buko Beach
Link to post
Share on other sites
Buko Beach

the only trough i like is the dinner trough...  buy land they dont make any more dirt 

Old saying...

 

There are Bulls and there are Bears... but only the Pigs get slaughtered.

 

I agree about the land. Some of the richest guys are also the biggest land holders. Ted Turner holds almost 2million acres.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Brucewayne

No matter what you buy, buy low, sell high and make Damn sure there is, or will soon be a market for what you are buying.

I also do the stock market thing and oil exploration has been doing very well, although since the technology crash a while back, it is feasible to say that technology will be back at the top in the very near future.

Real estate is too volatile for me and has been a hard market to manage in this century and gold is just a commodity that will probably soon be replaced as semiconductor material in the near future by a synthetic "gold".

All that gold being bought for your computer processors will be dumped for the newer technology, forcing gold prices even lower, causing it to be nothing more than a trinket metal.

Nice to look at, but basically worthless when it comes to function (at least at current prices).

Edited by Brucewayne
Link to post
Share on other sites
Skywalker

 

the low-cost producer I bought

 

Oops my error, I thought you'd bought gold, rather than some mining outfit shares.  You write like a politician speaks!

 

Who is the producer?  Then we can all follow your gamble, rather than simply words from somebody who boasts about making large sums to some pensioner in a bar.

 

Care to share, or are you another gambler who only ever talks about his wins?

Link to post
Share on other sites
USMC-Retired

http://www.livingincebuforums.com/topic/10639-stock-market-cash-or-what-to-do/?hl=%2Bbuy+%2Bgold#entry90131

 

 

That is the Gold Link.  

 

CKFM said to invest in Gold.  I warned about what happen in 1980 with gold.  He dismissed it saying you can not predict the future with past events.  Well I feel a little better now.  :)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
panther

I hope he did,nt invest too much coz its looking very painfull every day with a long drop left to go

Link to post
Share on other sites
Brucewayne

http://www.livingincebuforums.com/topic/10639-stock-market-cash-or-what-to-do/?hl=%2Bbuy+%2Bgold#entry90131

 

 

That is the Gold Link.  

 

CKFM said to invest in Gold.  I warned about what happen in 1980 with gold.  He dismissed it saying you can not predict the future with past events.  Well I feel a little better now.   :)

 

Without knowledge of the past, your future would be doomed, good call by the way.

Link to post
Share on other sites
BossHog

I bought a small circular piece of gold ages ago.

 

It's a very expensive object to maintain.

 

Has cost me many many 1000x in upkeep considering what I paid for it.

 

 

Still, it's the best investment I ever made.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Ozepete

http://www.livingincebuforums.com/topic/10639-stock-market-cash-or-what-to-do/?hl=%2Bbuy+%2Bgold#entry90131

 

 

That is the Gold Link.  

 

CKFM said to invest in Gold.  I warned about what happen in 1980 with gold.  He dismissed it saying you can not predict the future with past events.  Well I feel a little better now.   :)

This link quoted was 2009 when gold was about US$970. In less than four years it has peaked at double that and even with this latest drop it is still 50% higher than 2009!! Surely with returns of between 50% and near 100%, (Depending on selling at the highest or lowest price)  gold has been a great investment specially compared to most other investments. Also unlike property, gold is easily liquidated and from day to day you know what value you have or haven't got!. Good time to buy.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Contango

Someone in this forum told us all about a year ago to invest in gold.  (WHEN IT WAS ALMOST ON THE HIGHES EVER PRICE).., unfortunately i can't find the thread anymore...

 

as some told him then, not a good idea.....

I think you mean this thread.

 

http://www.livingincebuforums.com/topic/46056-retirement/page-6

 

Ill quote my self from it

 

Posted 22 April 2012 - 11:36 PM

David the big problem i see now with Gold is that the only rising demand for gold has been for ETF's (exchange traded funds) there are warehouses in NY full of the stuff and it just sits there doing nothing...this gold is actually very liquid and when the serious selling starts as it inevitably will one day, the POG has the potential to fall significantly and very quickly.

Edited by Contango
Link to post
Share on other sites
Buko Beach

No matter what you buy, buy low, sell high and make Damn sure there is, or will soon be a market for what you are buying.

I also do the stock market thing and oil exploration has been doing very well, although since the technology crash a while back, it is feasible to say that technology will be back at the top in the very near future.

Real estate is too volatile for me and has been a hard market to manage in this century and gold is just a commodity that will probably soon be replaced as semiconductor material in the near future by a synthetic "gold".

All that gold being bought for your computer processors will be dumped for the newer technology, forcing gold prices even lower, causing it to be nothing more than a trinket metal.

Nice to look at, but basically worthless when it comes to function (at least at current prices).

Synthetic Gold? Hmm.. the "newer technology" that you mention is called 'Graphine' and is the next big thing. I am heavily invested in a few select graphite producers that are now fighting for a production patent. Graphine is made out of graphite and is carbon based. Researchers have made a sheet of graphene as thin as paper and that sheet could (in theory) hold up the weight of an elephant if it was standing on top of a pencil pressing against the sheet of graphene. Super stong flexible material. An electronics giant is currently developing cell phones made out of graphene that can bend and flex. Graphene is the next big thing.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Guidelines. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue..

Capture.JPG

I Understand...