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Get in the Delorian, warm up the "flux-capacitor" and predict the future of Cebu


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Greetings,

I bring this question up for one main reason, and several small ones. I plan on retiring in 10-12 years and I am wondering what Cebu will look like then. Here are some questions/realizations I have to:

1. China is now a Asian super-power that is quietly buying it's loyalties in the Pacific rim. How will it's covert anti-western/anti-US funding affect Cebu/PI's?

2. As long as the PI's suffer extreme poverty and corruption, IMHO the radical muslim ideology can rapidly flourish. IMHO the PI's (and the pacific rim at large) are one big muslim factory. I point to what is happening in Thailand.

3. The falling dollar. Sure, the value of US currency will rise and fall, that is to be expected. What I see is a world wide switch from the US currency to EU. After all, one of the big draws to the PI's is the exchange rate....

4. The new airport that is planned in (Cebu?). This airport can become a gateway for the newly minted uber-rich Chinese (and other Asian countries) to make Cebu their playground, pricing retirement in Cebu out-of-reach of most people.

5. I look at the Costa-Rica recent history. It was a quiet gem, where one could "live like a king...cheap." That "secret" has been out for a while now, and it is no longer the "cheap gem" it once was. In my researching I have discovered that south america has a few up and coming cheap gems. Believe it or not, Columbia has quietly become a much safer place. Panama. And to a lesser extent Honduras.

 

Am I full of crap? Admittedly, it would not be the first time...LOL! I want to know what you think. So get your "flux-capicitors" warmed up, and tell me what you see in ten years for Cebu!

 

Thanks

Edited by jimmygee
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Interesting questions, Jimmy. Hard to say, but I'll hazard a couple of uninformed and part of the unwashed masses answers.

 

1. China is heading toward its own big big problems. It will be a super power. It will not be very similar to what it is today. The commies are holding onto power with help of the army. We'll see how long they can keep the balancing act up. PI will be nice to whoever is paying the bill, at least to their face.

 

2. Poverty along the Pacific Rim has been around for a long, long time. Even the fortunes of Gates, Hilton, and the Sultan of Brunei won't fix it. Islamic fundamentalists will make life miserable for awhile, a few decades and then it will peter out. Well, I sure hope it does.

 

3. We are "if you see Kay". That won't change in the near future. No one has the will to do that. The politicians consider it (rightly) suicide and most Americans are pretty used to their entitlements. We will probably see a re-evaluation of the currency in another decade or so. Those of us that live on US government pensions (which includes me) or the dole will be totally destroyed as the new economic realities come into real focus.

 

4. Invest wisely, learn some Mandarin or Cantonese, and be ready to ride the next big wave.

 

5. Costa Rica, the place with all the stolen cars? I heard it was sort of washed up or maybe just awash in Snowbirds and Expats. Or was that El Salvador? Maybe it is rebounding. Or was that Panama? Great places if you speak Spanish and want to be relatively near to the USA. You can see the pre-Columbian ruins there and in the neighborhood, which is part of a very exotic and interesting history. Food is good there, but not quite on the same level as Thailand, China and (I hear) India, regardless of what Rick Bayless is serving up on Public TV. I'll take SE Asia, thanks all the same.

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I don't want to be to short with you, but then again I've lived my life the way I've been comfortable with it and it seems to be working for me the past 47 years....

 

One: I live for today, but within moderation and some sort of outlook and plan for the future...... I take certain things into consideration and many things I don't... My son's edjucation, I think about alot, and I do put aside some for him on a regular basis based on the fact that I hope he does attend college someday and then will be the time for me to help him pursue his dreams.

 

Except for the exchange rate, has the PI's really changed all that much from the late 70's? I think not.

 

 

The Chinese. They will be happy as long as the USA keeps building those Super Wal-Marts, and stocking their shelves with Chinese goods....

 

Muslums? We will always have the ones that are not troubled ones, and those that are. But thankfully, the non-troubled ones do and always will out number the troubled ones.

 

Now for the iceing on the cake......And this is NO bulls***.......Just two days ago, a very good friend of mine and a past buisness partner called me and asked, What did I think about going to Costa Rica and help him to continue building on a Concrete Const. buisness he's had in place there for the past 10 years....... He offered me one hell of a deal. But it only took me one day to do some research on the country and it's up to date going on's, and I decided if I'm going to make any kind of a major move like that these days, it will be to Cebu, and NOT COSTA RICA.....

 

 

Hopefully you all get an Idea where I'm coming from...

 

 

Ned

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Greetings,

I bring this question up for one main reason, and several small ones. I plan on retiring in 10-12 years and I am wondering what Cebu will look like then. Here are some questions/realizations I have to:

1. China is now a Asian super-power that is quietly buying it's loyalties in the Pacific rim. How will it's covert anti-western/anti-US funding affect Cebu/PI's?

2. As long as the PI's suffer extreme poverty and corruption, IMHO the radical muslim ideology can rapidly flourish. IMHO the PI's (and the pacific rim at large) are one big muslim factory. I point to what is happening in Thailand.

3. The falling dollar. Sure, the value of US currency will rise and fall, that is to be expected. What I see is a world wide switch from the US currency to EU. After all, one of the big draws to the PI's is the exchange rate....

4. The new airport that is planned in (Cebu?). This airport can become a gateway for the newly minted uber-rich Chinese (and other Asian countries) to make Cebu their playground, pricing retirement in Cebu out-of-reach of most people.

5. I look at the Costa-Rica recent history. It was a quiet gem, where one could "live like a king...cheap." That "secret" has been out for a while now, and it is no longer the "cheap gem" it once was. In my researching I have discovered that south america has a few up and coming cheap gems. Believe it or not, Columbia has quietly become a much safer place. Panama. And to a lesser extent Honduras.

 

Am I full of crap? Admittedly, it would not be the first time...LOL! I want to know what you think. So get your "flux-capicitors" warmed up, and tell me what you see in ten years for Cebu!

 

Thanks

 

Hi jimmygee and let me welcome you to the forum if someone else has not already beaten me to the punch. :lol:

 

I tried to warm up my crystal ball but it refused to fire up. Maybe it is because I bought it in the USA and it is therefore not on Philippine time :) or maybe I just used the wrong magic words :) and it does not understand Cebuano. :lol::)

 

Jimmygee, you asked some good questions, but I do not think anyone can completely predict what the future holds for Cebu or the rest of the world in the next 10 to 12 years, but I can speak of the last 13 years that I have been watching Cebu progress, and it has come a very long way and will no doubt continue. Prices are rising on property expediently as well as the cost of purchasing goods not made in the Philippines and the one constant seems to be that labor continues to be low, so items made in the Philippines and work needed to be done within the Philippines remains so much lower than in many countries.

 

Yes, the peso exchange rate has hurt many of us, but I am pretty sure that it will go back the other way again in the future because the only constant in life is change and everything in the financial markets seems to be cyclical.

 

As for Muslim radical ideology, I think that the whole world is suffering because of the radical view, but luckily the majority of Muslims that I have interacted with in the Philippines and elsewhere, do not appear to have that view, so no one can say how that will affect the future of the Philippines, but the Muslim religion is still the minority compared to Christian religions in the Philippines by a long shot and is sure to remain that way for many years to come and Cebu is far away from the very small parts of Mindanao where Muslims seem to be the majority.

 

Jimmygee, as you said yourself, Costa Rica was a haven for many to retire to in the past and now it is also expensive to live there, as is most of the rest of the world, but the one difference I find about the Philippines is, that should Cebu City grow too large or too expensive, then there will always be the rest of Cebu island and other places in the Philippines that are now not as far advanced as Cebu City is, but are sure to advance by that time and will become the next Cebu City.

 

As for the China issue, China is buying up the USA as well, so I feel that there is no way to predict how Chinas insatiable growth will affect Cebu or the rest of the world, but it is definitely something to be concern about all over the world and I am more worried right now about how China and other countries are buying up the USA. See the below article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews :D

 

So, in my humble opinion, moving to the Philippines in 10 to 12 years should still be viable, but moving to Cebu City itself and the cost of living there at that time will be hard to totally predict, as would any other place in the world.

 

So, Jimmygee, you are not full of it, only maybe just a little constipated. :):D:lol: and I guess you will have to cross that bridge as the time gets closer.

:D

 

I anxiously await others comments who will reply to your questions. :lol:

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I'm certainly a bit groggy, what was in those little brown drinks Bob?

 

Back to topic. My first impression of the questions was, why bother? If they were asked in 1996, would we have forseen twin towers; $100 oil; debt at astonomical levels; global warming proven; China in the assendant and war declared by the US and UK for no real/logical/legal reason. I suspect not.

 

So jimmygee my view is to live for today and plan for your life based on what you know today and be prepared to amend your view accordingly.

 

Specifically on the questions, as it would be rude not to comment, in my opinion:-

 

1. Positive. PI is still too reliant on US influence so China's incursion should be positive competition for the economy.

2. Nonsense. The average muslim is no more wackey in their view of the world than the average person anywhere. When I was renewing my visa the other day an American guy said quite passionately that the US should invade the PI to get ride of corruption!

3. Agreed. Debt in the US and UK is far beyond what is manageable. The Euro could well surplant the $ but I don't think it wants too. Impossible to take a view that would last more than 6 months.

4. Nope. Why would uber-rich Chinese take over from Americans, Koreans or Japanese who are not uber-rich. The uber-rich here are Filipina If you're a uber-rich Chinese person, you go to Hong Kong, London, Paris or New York and have lifestyle, not surround yourself with relative poverty and little choice.

5. If all you're looking for is cheap, wait and see. Indian was cheap a few years ago but that is changing fast. In 12 years there will be another billion people around mostly from China, Indian and third world countries, all wanting what the west has/had. Hey, priced in $'s or

Edited by johnrainey
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