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Usd/php Predictions


blaze pontaine

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Guest mford019

The USD will gain over all currency, stay tuned..... 70php=1USD next year this time. Soon will be over 100! I said it here on my porcelain throne 10 Sept. 2010 at 2136 hours!

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As a professional foreign currency trader, I can suggest the appreciation we are currently seeing with the Philippine Peso doesn't have much to do with American politics or the deprecation of the U.S.

47.50 this time next year. Possibly 50 or higher depending on what happens in November. My prediction is that the endless printing of money stops January when the democrats will no longer have anyth

I'll go with P33 to $1.00

i think the peso will remain strong as long as the Philippines is able to borrow from other countries to dump the money in the forex markets.. oh the land of the billon dollar loans..

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USMC-Retired

Well we will never see it back at 40. The Philippines can not afford that. Since no one will buy goods. The goverment would like to see it at 50. However that is not realistic as the US keeps spending like no tomorrow. So 44-47 would be realistic. I am thinking on my that day probably 44.75.

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JohnFromTexas

can we revise our estimates? :) two points: 1. It's not just what happens in the US economy itself but what happens in comparison to other currencies around the world as well. 2. The spending will stop starting in January when the Republicans take over the house and they either are in control of the senate or only a few votes short. The house hasn't changed control without the senate following in a long time. The era of trillion dollar deficits in the US is about to be over. Hell, next year there may even be an actual budget passed :)

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can we revise our estimates? :) two points: 1. It's not just what happens in the US economy itself but what happens in comparison to other currencies around the world as well. 2. The spending will stop starting in January when the Republicans take over the house and they either are in control of the senate or only a few votes short. The house hasn't changed control without the senate following in a long time. The era of trillion dollar deficits in the US is about to be over. Hell, next year there may even be an actual budget passed :)

 

 

 

 

 

john i though bush was a republican and he sure wasnt thrifty with money

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JohnFromTexas

i just erased a long response out of respect for paul's no politics policies and don't wanna get this thread shut down :) all i'll say is spending during the bush years is incomparable to spending since jan 2009 when the other party took control of the presidency and congress.

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blaze pontaine

No new predictions, this was a 12 month contest and it has 7 months to go.

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TheMatrix

As a professional foreign currency trader, I can suggest the appreciation we are currently seeing with the Philippine Peso doesn't have much to do with American politics or the deprecation of the U.S. dollar. What we are seeing is a rapid increase in value of ALL Asian currencies versus the rest of the world! The Philippines or America is not singled out. The reasons are quite simple and economic. Asian countries economies are booming compared to the rest of the world. We will continue to see appreciation led by the the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan Renminbi. All the other currencies will follow: Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are all enjoying a strong currency at this time. My prediction of 42.50 stands. I believe it can go further down especially after you do factor in U.S. politics, but expect intervention at 41-42 to keep it propped. The reason we are currently seeing a vertical rise of the Japanese Yen is not necessarily because of their economy as they're suffering along with most other western countries, it is because China, for some odd reason, has been accumulating the Japanese Yen as of late... and lots of it causing it's value to rise. Stories daily on CNN.

 

If or when the Chinese Yuan Renminbi ever does become a fully free traded currency. In other words, not pegged to the U.S. Dollar, then we will definitely see a RAPID increase in Asian currencies. How about 27-28PHP=1USD? That would definitely suck big rocks for us expats living here.

 

 

 

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Edited by SteveMatrix
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USMC-Retired

Steve I see you point. However would the Philippine Economy survive on a Peso rate less the 40? I do not think it can. So the intervention and artificial prop up of the dollar against the Peso will happen. So thinking it will be less then that is crazy.

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As much as I want the dollar stronger, I believe it will be weaker. Next year? 40.5/$1.00usd

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sandwindstars

As a professional foreign currency trader, I can suggest the appreciation we are currently seeing with the Philippine Peso doesn't have much to do with American politics or the deprecation of the U.S. dollar. What we are seeing is a rapid increase in value of ALL Asian currencies versus the rest of the world! The Philippines or America is not singled out. The reasons are quite simple and economic. Asian countries economies are booming compared to the rest of the world. We will continue to see appreciation led by the the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan Renminbi. All the other currencies will follow: Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are all enjoying a strong currency at this time. My prediction of 42.50 stands. I believe it can go further down especially after you do factor in U.S. politics, but expect intervention at 41-42 to keep it propped. The reason we are currently seeing a vertical rise of the Japanese Yen is not necessarily because of their economy as they're suffering along with most other western countries, it is because China, for some odd reason, has been accumulating the Japanese Yen as of late... and lots of it causing it's value to rise. Stories daily on CNN.

 

If or when the Chinese Yuan Renminbi ever does become a fully free traded currency. In other words, not pegged to the U.S. Dollar, then we will definitely see a RAPID increase in Asian currencies. How about 27-28PHP=1USD? That would definitely suck big rocks for us expats living here.

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I have to agree with you on that. The world is just waiting when China floats the rmb. I think the success of the peso denominated bonds maybe be partly due to what you've explained. In 2008 when the exchange was around PHP 41=USD 1, I heard a bit of groaning from expats working in the country getting paid in USD; and from OFW's in PNG earning in USD. About P27-28...that's scary. Thanks for the inside info.

 

As of Sep 2010, in May 2011 looking at 41.50. Do we get a prize for the right prediction?

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blaze pontaine

The Philippine central bank raised interest rates by 1.75 percentage points in May 1997 and again by 2 points on 19 June. Thailand triggered the crisis on 2 July and on 3 July, the Philippine Central Bank was forced to intervene heavily to defend the peso, raising the overnight rate from 15% to 32% right upon the onset of the Asian crisis in mid-July 1997. The peso fell significantly, from 26 pesos per dollar at the start of the crisis, to 38 pesos as of mid-1999, and to 54 pesos as of first half August 2001.

 

The Philippine economy recovered from a contraction of 0.6% in GDP during the worst part of the crisis to GDP growth of some 3% by 2001, despite scandals of the administration of Joseph Estrada in 2001, most notably the "jueteng" scandal, causing the PSE Composite Index, the main index of the Philippine Stock Exchange, to fall to some 1000 points from a high of some 3000 points in 1997. The peso fell even further, trading at levels of about 55 pesos to the US dollar. Later that year, Estrada was on the verge of impeachment but his allies in the senate voted against the proceedings to continue further. This led to popular protests culminating in the "EDSA II Revolution", which finally forced his resignation and elevated Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to the presidency. Arroyo managed to lessen the crisis in the country, which led to the recovery of the Philippine peso to about 50 pesos by the year's end and traded at around 41 pesos to a dollar by end 2007. The stock market also reached an all time high in 2007 and the economy is growing by at least more than 7 percent, its highest in nearly 2 decades.

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Julian C Thong

As I've posted elsewhere, Bloomberg recently reported a b(w)anker's opinion that the peso was 70% undervalued. Forex changes tend to move very slowly but that does suggest something in the $30-35 range in the future. By May 2011 I'd say 38-40 US.

 

Personally, I'm assuming a minimum 10% reduction in fixed income each year, 5% inflation difference and 5% currency. However, it could be 15-20% pa, which has been nearer the actual in the 3 years I've been here. At 15% pa, things double or halve in 5 years!

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