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Willie

HIV/AIDS - The Philippines Paradox

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Willie

An older non-scientific article, but a classic on the Philippines Paradox - cases of HIV appear to be extremely low despite the risk factors for the spread of HIV being very high in the Philippines. I believe the paradox is a myth and I'm very worried about the emergence of an HIV/Aids epidemic in the Philippines. So are many others including the WHO, the CDC and the UN. By the way, some groups in the Philippines -- men sleeping with men, and intravenous drug users -- have just been classified as being in epidemic for HIV transmission. Overall, the trend for the Philippines looks extremely ominous. Take precautions Ladies and Gentlemen.

 

Philippines sits on HIV time bomb

Asia Times, April 3, 2003

Ted Lerner

 

Steve

epidemiologist in Atlanta

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Arkanmo

I Believe it is a myth also. But, I think if you get HIV/AIDS there, and cannot afford treatment, you die fast before you have time to spread the disease. Just a theory but I know nothing about this disease.

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bikerdave

I think if you get HIV/AIDS there, and cannot afford treatment, you die fast before you have time to spread the disease. Just a theory but I know nothing about this disease.

Obviously Many will agree that you know nothing about the disease

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Mik

The hypothesis that HIV causes AIDS is a myth. http://www.virusmyth.com/aids/controversy.htm

 

I would be more concerned about a real disease like tuberculosis. "In 2007, approximately 100 Filipinos died each day from the disease..." http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/id/tuberculosis/countries/asia/philippines_profile.html

 

.

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udonthani

fropm the Asia Times article

 

Another factor in the underreporting of HIV/AIDS cases comes from the many doctors in the provinces who, through sheer ignorance, may treat a particular disease without knowing the patient has HIV. Victims are said not to die of AIDS. Instead they die of tuberculosis, meningitis, pneumonia, etc.

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poby

HIV is primarily a gay and intravenous drug user disease. Normal heterosexual transmission is extremely rare. You could feck a hiv infected gal every night for a year and still be unlikely to catch it.

 

This makes interesting reading

 

Thailand Military & Prostitute Studies

An article about Thailand got lots of attention showed 6.9% of military recruits tested HIV+. We have no idea how any of these were gays, bisexual or drug users (which I understand is very common). Somehow the article takes the huge leap to the source being sex with prostitutes with no explanation. Perhaps this was the excuse many of them had rather than admitting other risk factors.

 

There is no evidence of any AIDS epidemic in Thailand among female prostitutes, based on the World Health Organization's (WHO) most recent "Update May 1995" on AIDS/HIV in Thailand. 85% of all AIDS cases in Thailand are in men and 10% in heterosexual women. There is no evidence that any of these females are prostitutes.

 

In June 1994, 513 female prostitutes were tested for HIV. 94% were negative. These were the most promiscuous prostitutes who worked the infamous red-light districts of Patpong. Drug use is also high which might explain how 6% were HIV+ in addition to the fact HIV can be transmitted male to female (with difficulty) but its almost impossible to transfer female to a intact healthy male, assuming no other risk factors.

 

There is no evidence that any tourists contracted AIDS from having sex with Thai prostitutes. On the contrary, a study of AIDS in Japan, Australia and Malaysia - all countries that frequent Thai prostitutes heavily - reveals a virtual absence of HIV/AIDS. Japan has less than 1000 cumulative AIDS cases and no HIV, even among the Japanese prostitutes. The Aussies likewise have hardly any AIDS cases, yet hundreds of thousands of Aussie men have a long history of frequenting the beautiful prostitutes of the Far East.

Edited by poby

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Kreole

fropm the Asia Times article

 

Another factor in the underreporting of HIV/AIDS cases comes from the many doctors in the provinces who, through sheer ignorance, may treat a particular disease without knowing the patient has HIV. Victims are said not to die of AIDS. Instead they die of tuberculosis, meningitis, pneumonia, etc.

 

I wrote about this paradox in another topic because I was amazed to find that on both of the indexes reporting the HIV rate per country, that the PI was one of the lowest in the world. However, their last entry was dated 2003. Six years is a long time to go without reporting, and it may be, as in some other countries, there they are just not keeping score or not willing to share the information. If people do not get regularly tested, for instance before operations or births, and it is not part of the education system to warn about the dangers of HIV transmission, then very likely HIV is very much under-reported. There are some countries that I have traveled that do not release their medial statistics even though they keep them up to date. One such country is Cuba, very famous for its medical care which is free but still inadequate in many ways. At the very least, anyone can get a free HIV or STD test anytime. This has perhaps saved the Cubans from a pandemic, but on the other hand given them a false sense of security that is just now being admitted in the rising rates of HIV among the young from 18-24. If Cuba says it has .1% you should easliy double that, just knowing that they have this history of secrecy, like the fact that they have one of the highest incidences of suicide in the world, across the entire range of ages, with women being equal to men. They will not release this information.

 

I am using Cuba as an example of a country that keeps meticulous records and statistics on everything but refuses to share them with other countries. In the case of the PI, it may be either that up-to-date records do not really exist because of lack of will, or that they too are deliberately hiding the facts, in order to not gain a reputation like Thailand. Another curious fact is that the PI has been on the map for many years due to the US military bases, so there has been a long history of sexual interaction between foreigners and Filipinos. However, as a tourist destination in the age of AIDS, it is apparently much less desirable than other Asian countries. Every report one reads on the PI says the same: of all of the countries in Asia it is the least visited due to numerous factors. I cannot attest to any of this. I am just relating what I have read. So there may be a number of things that have actually worked in the favor of the PI as being a bit out of the way. But the sexual habits of a country will eventually doom it, if no effort is made to educate the population and turn the trend, as has been done in Thailand and Cambodia which both apparently show decreases in HIV transmission since the government eduction campaigns.

 

If getting tested for HIV remains expensive in the PI, then you can bet that the reporting is seriously skewed. It has been stated many times and many places that the PI is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, with a great deal of poverty and very little attention being paid to the great underclass. This being the case, if you look at the mortality rates of any given country, and the longevity index, then that will also give you another indication; although it may not provide specific information as to the reasons for mortality. Simply put, people here may be dying in droves because of diseases that are a result of having a compromised immune system. Because that is what AIDS is: a compromised autoimmune system disease.

 

On a personal note, being a single man, and having been in relationships with third world women, it has been my rule to have a woman tested for HIV. If I am interested enough in her to have sex, then I make an appointment to get both of us tested together, just like here in the US. There is no 100% guarantee due to time lag, etc that the tests are accurate, but it is a start. And, after spending months, reviewing all of the current research on HIV and AIDS, I learned a very curious fact that is not generally advertised. For 90% of any given population the HIV antibodies will show up after one week; for 95% of the population, two weeks; for 98% of the poplulation, 3 months; for 99% of the population, 6 months. The reason the 3 month lag is advertised is because it is 98% a opposed to 90%. Thus, if you are working within the statistics, then at least you have some indicators, through testing, from which to base a decision. It is your choice from there whether to take the risk (Russian roulette). So, to conclude, there is probably no real paradox here in the PI. It is very likely a result of multiple factors that HIV is under-reported. And the quote above is very likely accurate to the degree that there is a percentage of those cases that are a result of being HIV positive or having AIDS.

Edited by Kreole

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til

@poby: Seems a bit blue eyed what you write. Why is the HIV/AIds rate in Africa so high? Some countries have over 20%. Are they all homosexual drug users there? Or does it just spread slowly but steadily as long as people have (lots) of unprotected, promiscuous sex? I tend to believe the latter.

And from what I read, there have been cases where people have sex over years and don't get infected, but there are also cases where once was enough. It all depends.

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Willie

The hypothesis that HIV causes AIDS is a myth. http://www.virusmyth...controversy.htm

 

I would be more concerned about a real disease like tuberculosis. "In 2007, approximately 100 Filipinos died each day from the disease..." http://www.usaid.gov...es_profile.html

 

.

 

You make a good point about TB. Mike, I respect your opinion, and I enjoy your posts. I believe that you are dead wrong, however, in denying the mountain of evidence linking HIV infection to AIDS. Any objective read of the scientific information presented by avert.org can lead to no other conclusion.

 

As the Avert authors state, "There is no single scientific paper that proves HIV causes AIDS. Instead there are tens of thousands of papers containing a wide range of evidence that, taken together, make the case overwhelming. People should be encouraged to question scientific orthodoxy. However, the views of AIDS dissidents, which have been well known for many years and thoroughly debated in scientific journals, have failed to win support. The core arguments of the Perth Group (that HIV has not been isolated according to their own particular rules) and Dr Duesberg (that no one fully understands how HIV causes AIDS) do not invalidate the wide range of evidence outlined at avert.org. The HIV theory is compelling because it provides a simple, unique cause that consistently accounts for all of the observed phenomena. As an independent AIDS organisation, AVERT is primarily interested in what works. Studies have repeatedly shown that antibody testing is a highly effective way of predicting risk for AIDS; that modern antiretroviral treatment brings dramatic benefits; and that people who avoid exposure to HIV do not get AIDS."

 

Steve in Atlanta

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til

Forget it Steve, even the straightest line of thought and reason is lost on this one, Mike only believes conspiracy theories.

:welcome:

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Mik

Forget it Steve, even the straightest line of thought and reason is lost on this one, Mike only believes conspiracy theories.

:welcome:

 

 

Though I disagree with him, Slick Wiilie's reply to my post is respectful, logical and thoughtful. Your comment is not.

 

.

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sperry

@poby: Seems a bit blue eyed what you write. Why is the HIV/AIds rate in Africa so high? Some countries have over 20%. Are they all homosexual drug users there? Or does it just spread slowly but steadily as long as people have (lots) of unprotected, promiscuous sex? I tend to believe the latter.

And from what I read, there have been cases where people have sex over years and don't get infected, but there are also cases where once was enough. It all depends.

 

Well I can give you a few pointers on this, but you will have to continue your own research. All of this come from reputable sources over the years

 

1. There are many different types of HIV, the common one in Africa is rare in Asia and vice versa

2. Some people have a natural immunity to HIV, this immunity could be more prevalent in Asia

3. Sexual practices are different in Africa

4. Asian culture places a higher value on physical cleanliness

5. A lot of the so called "rates" are extrapolation from available figures (eg if x% of pregnant women have HIV, then y% of the population does).

Such figures can be wildly inaccurate. It is in the interests of AID organisations to exploit this fact.

6. The rate of pure non-drug heterosexual AIDS is much lower than most people think.

 

Now none of this is conspiracy theory stuff.

 

And finally if you want a personal theory that you wont read in the newspapers? A doctor told me that HIV transfers through invisible micro-fissures in the skin of the penis. As (think about it) the skin probably gets stretched more in Africa, there will be more micro-fissures.

 

@poby: Seems a bit blue eyed what you write. Why is the HIV/AIds rate in Africa so high? Some countries have over 20%. Are they all homosexual drug users there? Or does it just spread slowly but steadily as long as people have (lots) of unprotected, promiscuous sex? I tend to believe the latter.

And from what I read, there have been cases where people have sex over years and don't get infected, but there are also cases where once was enough. It all depends.

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Willie

Well I can give you a few pointers on this, but you will have to continue your own research. All of this come from reputable sources over the years

 

1. There are many different types of HIV, the common one in Africa is rare in Asia and vice versa

2. Some people have a natural immunity to HIV, this immunity could be more prevalent in Asia

3. Sexual practices are different in Africa

4. Asian culture places a higher value on physical cleanliness

5. A lot of the so called "rates" are extrapolation from available figures (eg if x% of pregnant women have HIV, then y% of the population does).

Such figures can be wildly inaccurate. It is in the interests of AID organisations to exploit this fact.

6. The rate of pure non-drug heterosexual AIDS is much lower than most people think.

 

Now none of this is conspiracy theory stuff.

 

And finally if you want a personal theory that you wont read in the newspapers? A doctor told me that HIV transfers through invisible micro-fissures in the skin of the penis. As (think about it) the skin probably gets stretched more in Africa, there will be more micro-fissures.

 

 

 

The micro-fissure risk seems to be true. That's why we are now hearing that circumcision puts the man more at risk.

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Willie

Though I disagree with him, Slick Wiilie's reply to my post is respectful, logical and thoughtful. Your comment is not.

 

.

 

Mike, is that really you in your avatar? I hope so. I like that pose, two-fisted but classy. See you guys in Cebu someday. Later,

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Willie

Forget it Steve, even the straightest line of thought and reason is lost on this one, Mike only believes conspiracy theories.

:thumbsup:

 

I tend to be a conspiracy theorist, too. But I do believe in the corelation between HIV and AIDS. I also believe in falsification versus justification as a philosophy of science. Justification is all the rage in recent decades. And it's easy to do, if you want to believe in something, it's always easy to find lots of things that seem to confirm it. Falsification is harder to do often, because it's often harder to find proof that something is wrong. But this philosophy believes that just one false instance disproves a theory. So far we've never seen a "case of AIDS" in someone who isn't also infected with HIV. I put "case of AIDS" in parenthesis, however, because the case definition of AIDS must be done by confirming a combination of symptoms, thus we can continue to debate the issue!

 

Also, regarding conspiracy theories and HIV, no one has said yet whether they believed the virus was manufactured in Atlanta to kill black people. IMHO, entirely possible. Some of the richest and most powerful people and foundations are advocating for a massive long term decrease in world population.

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