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Dafey

Gonna be a wet week boyos...put your rubbers on!

 

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rfm010

Well why not?  It's already been a wet couple of months for this time of year in this neck of the, so to speak, woods.

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Dafey

 

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MickyG

This is still la nina and projected to go though to May. so expect more water than usual for this time of year and slightly cooler summer

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BossHog

Pagasa has this as a Tropical Depression now so officially named "Auring", our first named cyclone of 2021, and forecast to become a Tropical Storm by Friday morning. 

Tropical Cyclone Advisory # 1

tca.thumb.png.c65288aacad52bf5a6f4a25371e82212.png

Below satellite images current as of 8:30 AM Wednesday:

se2_b13_0020.thumb.jpg.cad460783b2e88b955bada8ac73c441f.jpg

 

rb-l.gif.d8f01f0c38f576e6b5711c95e48bbc75.gif

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

As mentioned in the videos above, the exact track of this storm isn't all that relevant as it's a rainnmaker that will inundate a large area. That being said, the first graphic from JMA ( the Japan Meteorological Agency) has landfall directly on my front porch, halfway up the Pacific coast of Siargao island, at 8 AM Sunday morning. Better go buy a few more cans of pork and beans, lol.

In seriousness though, the timing of this isn't great as the rice here is due to be harvested in the next few weeks and this could be game over for an already rain-damaged crop.

jma.thumb.jpg.cc15c9e8152e3326f0b2d4ad3696ab96.jpg

 

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Dafey
1 hour ago, BossHog said:

In seriousness though, the timing of this isn't great as the rice here is due to be harvested in the next few weeks and this could be game over for an already rain-damaged crop.

Forgive my ignorance...I thought rice liked wet feet?

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BossHog
51 minutes ago, Dafey said:

I thought rice liked wet feet?

There can be too much of a good thing. 

IRRI (International Rice Research Institute) based right here in d'Phils at Los Banos is a great resource for all things rice. Here's a brief explainer on the negative effects of flooding/submergence from their Rice Knowledge Bank.

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

 

Here are some up-to-date graphics from Westpacwx. I like the new grahics style as they convey essential information really simply and well. 

g3.thumb.jpg.09429148bb1cf4ffb7afa4b524e6d9dd.jpg

 

g2.thumb.png.1b572419ca8efcd5323ec282d3ecf667.png

 

g1.thumb.jpg.2c1593df5024b79e1bbfc7b2a8cc98c2.jpg

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

Auring (international name: Dujuan) upgraded at 11 AM Friday by Pagasa:

Severe Tropical Storm "Auring"
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING Issued at 11:00 am, 19 February 2021

"AURING" INTENSIFIES INTO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF MINDANAO.

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2

There's a hint of an eye developing too...

rb-l.gif.cfc618627dca20b95410bcedc53aeb34.gif

 

Track remains basically the same...

wp0121.thumb.gif.ffd0c388ffba93ec3061ac8632ae9f02.gif

 

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Soupeod


https://www.facebook.com/biliranisland/

Date: 19 February 2021
Time Issued: 11:00 AM
Time/Date Rendered: 08:00 AM 19/02/2021
Severe Tropical Storm: #AuringPH

POTENTIAL RISK AREAS:

ALERT LEVEL CHARLIE: 50KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: 61 to 95 km/h
RAINFALL:  Heavy to Intense

PROVINCES:
Aklan
Antique
Capiz
Cebu
Dinagat Islands
Iloilo
Leyte
Masbate
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Palawan
Romblon
Southern Leyte
Surigao del Norte

ALERT LEVEL BRAVO: 150KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: 31 to 60 km/h
RAINFALL: Heavy to Intense
PROVINCES:
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Bohol
Guimaras
Negros Occidental
Negros Oriental
Surigao del Sur
Biliran
Eastern Samar
Samar

ALERT LEVEL ALPHA: 300KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: up to 30 km/h
RAINFALL:  Light to moderate to at times heavy
PROVINCES:
Bukidnon
Camiguin
Compostela Valley
Davao del Norte
Davao del Sur
Davao Oriental
Lanao del Norte
Lanao del Sur
Misamis Occidental
Misamis Oriental
North Cotabato
Shariff Kabunsuan
Siquijor
Zamboanga del Norte
Zamboanga del Sur
Albay
Aurora
Bataan
Batangas
Bulacan
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Cavite
Laguna
Marinduque
Metropolitan Manila
Northern Samar
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Quezon
Rizal
Sorsogon
Tarlac
Zambales

Maging #LISTO

BE ALERT!

 

55E5FEBD-A579-4EBF-A268-1EBEA5C2C16A.png

41FFBC03-E633-4A47-8C8D-326AE1C4CEAC.png

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Soupeod

73 degrees F with wind gust to 28mph! Freezing my ass off lol 😂 

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fred42

If I were looking at the satellite map from abroad, I would easily imagine torrential rains flooding and winds etc.
I`m actually in  the midst of it all and I doubt I could fly a kite right now.. No rain either just jet.
Storm in a tea cup?
 

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Soupeod

This is why.

6 hours ago, Soupeod said:


https://www.facebook.com/biliranisland/

Date: 19 February 2021
Time Issued: 11:00 AM
Time/Date Rendered: 08:00 AM 19/02/2021
Severe Tropical Storm: #AuringPH

POTENTIAL RISK AREAS:

ALERT LEVEL CHARLIE: 50KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: 61 to 95 km/h
RAINFALL:  Heavy to Intense

PROVINCES:
Aklan
Antique
Capiz
Cebu
Dinagat Islands
Iloilo
Leyte
Masbate
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Palawan
Romblon
Southern Leyte
Surigao del Norte

ALERT LEVEL BRAVO: 150KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: 31 to 60 km/h
RAINFALL: Heavy to Intense
PROVINCES:
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Bohol
Guimaras
Negros Occidental
Negros Oriental
Surigao del Sur
Biliran
Eastern Samar
Samar

ALERT LEVEL ALPHA: 300KM Diameter from the forecast track.
WINDS: up to 30 km/h
RAINFALL:  Light to moderate to at times heavy
PROVINCES:
Bukidnon
Camiguin
Compostela Valley
Davao del Norte
Davao del Sur
Davao Oriental
Lanao del Norte
Lanao del Sur
Misamis Occidental
Misamis Oriental
North Cotabato
Shariff Kabunsuan
Siquijor
Zamboanga del Norte
Zamboanga del Sur
Albay
Aurora
Bataan
Batangas
Bulacan
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Cavite
Laguna
Marinduque
Metropolitan Manila
Northern Samar
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Quezon
Rizal
Sorsogon
Tarlac
Zambales

Maging #LISTO

BE ALERT!

 

55E5FEBD-A579-4EBF-A268-1EBEA5C2C16A.png

41FFBC03-E633-4A47-8C8D-326AE1C4CEAC.png

 

15 minutes ago, fred42 said:

If I were looking at the satellite map from abroad, I would easily imagine torrential rains flooding and winds etc.
I`m actually in  the midst of it all and I doubt I could fly a kite right now.. No rain either just jet.
Storm in a tea cup?
 

 

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