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Super Typhoon Goni - Rolly (29 Oct 2020)


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BossHog

"Pre-Rolly" because Pagasa won't actually name this system until it enters the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility). At that point it's likely to have been upgraded from a TD (Tropical Depression) to a TS (Tropical Storm). Further intensification to at least a Cat 1 TY (Typhoon) around landfall seems to be in the works.

Rolly1820.thumb.png.690cd22c62b3010d2e7a21164997d481.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

Warning #1 from the JTWC has Rolly at 90 knots near landfall which would make it a solid Category 2 typhoon (83-95 knots).

Also has it going right through Manila as a solid Cat 1 typhoon.

wp2220.thumb.gif.fefb384791caa9f876d721aa1714e4f0.gif

 

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

70 knots so already a typhoon. Trend looks to be more to the north now. And stronger. Well, a lot stronger. JTWC has Goni peaking at 130 knots which happens to be the threshold for a Super Typhoon (STY).

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se2_b13_0840.thumb.jpg.fdeac5a38bffba3265bf5f2367488396.jpg

 

Ps. Goni (곤이) is an archaic Korean word for swan, especially the tundra swan, Cygnus columbianus.

download.jpg.3ba4f07f5107570f40706c816e5c2f3a.jpg

 

pss. In the image below, the third red blob in the bottom right corner is Invest 90W which will become Typhoon Atsani and likely very strong as well.

rb-l.gif.7b613bd27248fe7336692c2c877a0f8f.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by BossHog
update
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Paddy

I, for one, am rather glad to see the earlier turn northwards. The original track was through our yard (near enough!).

It’s a good job I knew about the local seismic, volcanic and weather events before I retired here😀

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BossHog

This qualifies as a definitive example of the Philippine Sea Effect facilitating ERI (Extreme Rapid Intensification).

260-315 kph tomorrow morning is really something.

"Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) continues to intensify while over the Philippine Sea, nearing Super Typhoon classification as it undergoes extreme Rapid Intensification (RI) over the past 12 hours. The potential landfall area will be on November 01 or 02 over Central Luzon with a high strike probability of 70-80%. 

24-hr Outlook: TY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to continue intensifying rapidly becoming a Category 5 Super Typhoon (260 km/hr) by early tomorrow morning as it begins to slide west to west-southwestward with a forward speed of 15 km/hr across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea."

https://typhoon2000.info/rolly20_04/

 

Rolly1820-Zoom.thumb.png.e126878d32feda7ce36cdadb370f8dbe.png

se2_b13_0130.thumb.jpg.613dc339428b94fdce0271e2d95b1217.jpg

 

Edited by BossHog
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rfm010

I like that track.  Splits the difference between my roof and research station.  Kid goes on field on the 3rd for 3 weeks of scuba fun.  "Work" she's calling it.  Things should be calm by then and power back on.

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BossHog
7 hours ago, rfm010 said:

I like that track.

Manila now in the crosshairs again:

Rolly1820-Zoom.thumb.png.0d9bc2dc3c1fcc1d98543884666e8116.png

wp2220.thumb.gif.0c1ab2fa912c80694e284f821d5a8283.gif

Currently a strong consensus in the track:

GONI.thumb.png.bde35ca478ec65500e397c220c1b630d.png

Saturday morning video update....

 

Edited by BossHog
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rfm010
22 hours ago, BossHog said:

Manila now in the crosshairs again:

 this sets up a nice little experiment.  cant remember if the story got mentioned on linc but there was a recent whoop ti doo (sp?) about some dolomite "sand" being dumped along the shore near the u.s. embassy as part of the government's effort to beautify the bay by giving it a white sand beach.  lots of silly claims/comments followed but a general consensus has been that the stuff will wash away and the whole effort is a major waste of money.   so this storm should help re-stoke some twitter storms.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1354003/the-controversy-that-refuses-to-die-manila-bay-dolomite-sand

Front-Page87515-2048x1157.jpg

 

 

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mistaeric

I heard another big storm is forming in the Pacific and will follow Goni later!! Luzon catches all the hell during Typhoon season!

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Dafey

The second one looks like it will turn north and miss the mainland

image.thumb.png.bbf8ebeefe64b2d95a0cd76338979aa8.png

The outer bands of Rolly started to hit Western Leyte about 2 PM. It's currently 8 PM and we are under heavy rain and gusts about 40 MPH...and we are not near the center of this monster. Hunker down Luzon!

image.png.57d885ff38a5047e987754081bbc7ff9.png

 

Edited by Dafey
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fred42
3 hours ago, rfm010 said:

 this sets up a nice little experiment.  cant remember if the story got mentioned on linc but there was a recent whoop ti doo (sp?) about some dolomite "sand" being dumped along the shore near the u.s. embassy as part of the government's effort to beautify the bay by giving it a white sand beach.  lots of silly claims/comments followed but a general consensus has been that the stuff will wash away and the whole effort is a major waste of money.   so this storm should help re-stoke some twitter storms.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1354003/the-controversy-that-refuses-to-die-manila-bay-dolomite-sand

Front-Page87515-2048x1157.jpg

 

 

Look..The powers that be decided to cheer everyone in  Manila up a bit by bringing Boracay to Manila..
So what if it washes away?? It already did it`s job right??.
Anyway,these stories usually mellow after 3 months and are forgotten after 6 months..
Dont get too upset about it...Soon forgotten!
 

Edited by fred42
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Janneo

Wishing everyone well who are/will be affected.

According to Windy's models it will either be right on top of me or slightly more north hitting Tagaytay this evening.  :-(

Some wind and rain now. Still have power but doubt that will last very long.

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Dafey

Current radar at noon

image.png.78b71809e0634f7c1b99491b973df1d7.png

Lots of rain but winds are slowing

image.thumb.png.a96b5163212115b5061abb31a1cba3cc.png

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Janneo

Amazingly still have power, maybe the storm last week took out the weakest links.

Wind getting serious but not too bad yet. Some rain but less than I expected at this time.

Windy suggests that the eye of the Typhoon will go slightly more north, somewhere between Tagaytay-Calamba.

Still too close for my taste.

Ingat po kayo!

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Janneo

Of course the power disappeared right after my last post. Been sitting with a flashlight waiting for the really bad weather which never came.

Looks like Windy had it wrong.  According to Pagasa it's now over the west Philippine sea and must have passed south of me instead of north.

Ah well, I'm happy it's over :-)

 

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