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Ozepete

Cebu property market?

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Ozepete

How is the property market holding during this Covid19 crisis?  There may be interest in knowing what movements there are specially for those new to LinC or Cebu as much was previously considered overpriced . And has anyone started a real estate business that functions normally with proper listings rather had a string of opportunists playing games? :scratch_head:

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smokey
Posted (edited)

I keep looking to arizona expecting a drop but dont see it guess if virus.lasted years with unemployment we could see that but a few months the virus seems to be a flash downturn as it takes a good year to foreclose in us when that happens prices should drop . As to here this place is 85% no bank loan so even temp unemployment dont make for a sell off i think 

Edited by smokey
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smokey
Posted (edited)

How has the virus affected me personally finanically 000 as most foreigners live on pensions or savings if anything i have saved more ... As to realestate when your buying its overpriced and when selling its depressed only western countries who love 3% down home loans are worried if they lost their jobs

Edited by smokey
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govoner

I think Cebu condos are in for a price crash

How can they not be when the whole tourist economy is in lockdown . The air B&B  industry is finished for the forseeable future (long term renters negotiating rent reductions)  OFW remittances will dry up as they lose their jobs overseas. Foreigners running for the exits as the as they watch the flip flopping of the mayors and govoner, 

i think prices will be down at least 20% within a year to 18 months ( in line with most of the world)

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SkyMan

I saw an article that the housing market in Cebu was down 15%.  My guess is a lot of that fire sales of foreigners wanting to leave quick and some locals a bit desperate for cash.  I have no idea where they get the stats though as there really is no listing system here.  Perhaps from the BIR or something like that but how many sales have been going on in the last 2 months?  I kind of doubt it will last long after the lockdown.

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smokey
Posted (edited)

I think its pretty rare to have a big mortgage here so if your house is paid for it cost way less then renting my problem has always been the laws are too weak to be a landlord here if renting to a local i may be wrong maybe davao who has a track record of buying and selling can comment

Edited by smokey

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Cgu
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, SkyMan said:

I saw an article that the housing market in Cebu was down 15%. 

I think the article said "are likely to decline by up to 15 per cent after", it is like predicting any future  market, stocks, real and nominal assets...who knows. Cebu property prices are still comparatively cheap to other developing countries and as said before it is not leveraged like in the US, so it is unlikely that it will come to the same scenario like in 1997 (as we have seen in the last financial crisis in 2007-2009 the Philippines property market was unaffected, while in the US it really "crashed"). 

Comparing US to the Philippines property market  cannot be made easily (or should not be made), as there are different (financial and other) structures. 

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3083940/falling-ofw-remittances-rising-unemployment-push-down-property-prices?fbclid=IwAR1sMr20ziD8SVLomiRh26XNNsJ4PtONrERiEpKQtatCUsTAiGJdfI4k-Q0

 

Edited by Cgu
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smokey
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, govoner said:

I think Cebu condos are in for a price crash

How can they not be when the whole tourist economy is in lockdown . The air B&B  industry is finished for the forseeable future (long term renters negotiating rent reductions)  OFW remittances will dry up as they lose their jobs overseas. Foreigners running for the exits as the as they watch the flip flopping of the mayors and govoner, 

i think prices will be down at least 20% within a year to 18 months ( in line with most of the world)

Well in condos you could be right at 160.000 a sq meter and lots of fees they should come down some as for houses at 32.000 a square meter thats about replacement cost .. I have rented condo units in manila and for me i would need about 100 sq meters and in condo prices that would be 4 times over a house same space

Edited by smokey

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Cgu
1 minute ago, smokey said:

Well in condos you could be right at 160.000 a sq meter and lots of fees

I think specially these condos will not come down in price, more likely condos over 15 years old, as there depreciation is faster as prices acceleration, specially in the low to mid priced condos  (this can easily be compared with the new condos coming on to the market).

For top end condos 160k/sqm is the norm and will be difficult to get one already (not that I would buy....)

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smokey

Just saw a vlog on angeles city real estate there should be good deal with bars closed now that has to kill the hotel condo buisness

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Cgu
1 hour ago, smokey said:

Just saw a vlog on angeles city real estate there should be good deal with bars closed now that has to kill the hotel condo buisness

Good point. I think commercial properties will be under pressure, as well because of home office etc....Maybe in the Philippines a little bit different.

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