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Kahuna
5 minutes ago, fred42 said:

 

It`s just my opinion based on how the virus has NOT spread since it`s introduction into the Philippines.
Carry on panicking guys..It allows me to do my weekly shop with a parking space very close to the check outs and no queue.. Also it allowed me to transact my annual report in 1 minute 40 seconds this year!
 

Your opinion was noted earlier and you're welcome to it. This thread is about what is currently going on with the virus and panic isn't in the air as yet but caution is advised ,especially traveling to affected areas and interacting with those that recently have.   If you've something to add other than your opinion that still would be swell but stating your opinion here over and over will have you on the outside lookin in  no time flat:wink:

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From an on line Senior's website which I'm a Member  https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/health/covid19/glasses-cut-covid-infections-study? This although not conclusive I found interesting as

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Kahuna
4 minutes ago, SkyMan said:

 

Run for the border?

Some where back in the thread was a member exclaiming the carefree atmosphere experienced while  on vacation there so I was keeping track of the absence of any cases present there so they can go back and still be worry free some more:wink:

8 minutes ago, fred42 said:

There is still no recorded local transmission of the novel coronavirus in the Philippines, but the government says it is prepared for that eventuality.

 

The Department of Health (DOH) has probed a total of 408 patients for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of Wednesday noon, February 12.

This marks an increase of 26 from the 382 reported on Tuesday, February 11.

A total of 208 have already tested negative for 2019-nCoV, while 197 cases are still pending test results from the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM).

https://www.rappler.com/nation/251627-doh-report-patients-probed-novel-coronavirus-philippines-february-12-2020

thank you Fred...

This is information that we all can use..

If you've taken note of the links I put in 2 times a day you can see by scrolling down just what countries are being affected and get valid and up to date info from each.  

Enjoy!!:hi:

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Kahuna
11 minutes ago, jaybee747 said:

I was actually hopping to find information in this thread regarding the virus situation in Cebu, difficult to find within 30+ pages...

pssssssst guys, we all have smartphones, tablets and laptops, we know how to search in Google and YouTube.. .:)

For easier access to information there is a pinned post where there are 3 different sources updates them selves with the latest news.  Sorry for any thread clutter here but it's an ongoing project keeping it relevant and up to date.  

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2 minutes ago, jaybee747 said:

I was actually hopping to find information in this thread regarding the virus situation in Cebu, difficult to find within 30+ pages...

pssssssst guys, we all have smartphones, tablets and laptops, we know how to search in Google and YouTube.. .:)

Unfortunately very little local info available

Most of us are very concerned so the discussion centers around what is available

"Coronavirus in Cebu City" gives these results - About 2,280,000 results (0.40 seconds)

Today -'Smelly blankets, no water': 25 quarantined for coronavirus in ...

 4 days ago - Cebu readies another quarantine area amid coronavirus threat

The rest don't pertain to the quire or are even older

Feb 5 - DOH: Third coronavirus positive patient traveled to Cebu and ...

As for access to the net - some get less than 5 Mb typically - so searching is not that easy and it is recommended to  list your references so others can view them if text not copied and pasted in its entirety.

 

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probably listed here already for local numbers .....   https://ncovtracker.doh.gov.ph/

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/xi-jinping-was-aware-of-the-deadly-coronavirus-much-earlier-than-believed-a-new-speech-reveals/news-story/ed27370709c906b77bb7ae00e2b38ed8

Xi Jinping was aware of the deadly coronavirus much earlier than believed, a new speech reveals

A speech Xi Jinping made earlier this month has just been published – and it reveals something crucial about the rampant spread of the deadly coronavirus.

 

news.com.auFEBRUARY 16, 20203:07PM

Xi Jinping was aware of the deadly coronavirus much earlier than originally thought, according to a transcript of a private speech he made.

The Chinese leader issued orders on fighting the coronavirus on January 7, during a meeting of the country’s Politburo Standing Committee, almost two weeks before his first public comments on the deadly disease.

It wasn’t until January 23 that Chinese authorities banned travel in and out of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. By this point, thousands of people had already travelled in and out of the city, around the mainland and overseas.

In a speech delivered on February 3, Mr Xi outlined a contingency plan to respond to the crisis, which he said could jeopardise China’s economic and social stability.

State media published the speech, essentially revealing that top leaders were aware of the outbreak’s potential severity well before such dangers were made known to the public.

“I issued demands during a Politburo Standing Committee meeting on January 7 for work to contain the outbreak. On January 20, I gave special instructions about the work to prevent and control the outbreak and I have said we have to pay high attention to it,” Mr Xi said.

He also revealed he had personally ordered the lockdown of the virus epicentre.

“On January 22, in light of the epidemic’s rapid spread and the challenges of prevention and control, I made a clear request that Hubei province implement comprehensive and stringent controls over the outflow of people,” Mr Xi said.

The next day, Wuhan imposed an unprecedented halt on outbound transportation.

Mr Xi’s decision to release the speech suggests his priority is now assuring the Chinese public that the upper helm of the Chinese Communist Party has long been fighting against the virus outbreak.

But by confirming he knew about the virus for weeks and continued to suppress knowledge of it, he now runs the risk of a further backlash.

It comes as the virus infection toll continues to rise, with almost 70,000 confirmed cases and 1669 deaths.

Of the total coronavirus faces, 68,500 are in mainland China, with 338 in Japan, 72 in Singapore and 15 in Australia.

Today also saw the first coronavirus-related death in Europe, with an 80-year-old man from mainland China dying in France after contracting the virus.

CHINESE OFFICIALS SLAMMED OVER VIRUS RESPONSE

The Chinese government is firing officials in Hubei province as Beijing faces increasing criticism over its handling of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.

Senior Communist Party officials have been removed and replaced by figures from other provinces, echoing what happened in China during the SARS outbreak.

“Hubei province and Wuhan must further strengthen management and control over exits from the areas … to put a stop of the spread,” state broadcaster CCTV said.

Since the outbreak gained public attention last month, China’s social media pages have been flooded with angry netizens criticising officials for failing to contain the initial outbreak in the locked-down city.

Much of the anger was because authorities initially suppressed information of the outbreak.

At the beginning of January, eight doctors were detained by police for spreading information about the outbreak, which Chinese authorities called “rumours”.

One of them was Doctor Li Wenliang, who sounded the alarm on the virus and later died after he contracted it.

Wuhan’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, has since explained that he was unable to disclose the severity of the outbreak without receiving approval from Beijing.

“I hope everyone can understand why there wasn’t timely disclosure,” he said. “After I received information, I needed authorisation before making it public.”

It was a sign of the rare struggle between local government and Beijing, as Mr Xi continues to face the biggest challenge of his presidency.

CHINA’S ‘RUTHLESS SYSTEM’ SET STAGE FOR CRISIS

Javier Hernandez, the Beijing correspondent for The New York Times, said China’s authoritarian culture had allowed the crisis to take hold in the first place.

“China’s authoritarian culture in many ways set the stage for this crisis,” he said on The Daily podcast earlier this month. “For decades, China has built this ruthless system in which if you are an official in the Communist Party you are expected to be almost perfect. If anything goes bad you are the one who is going to take responsibility and fall.”

As a result of this, local Chinese authorities worry about attracting the ire of Beijing, and so their instinct is to cover up anything negative in the hopes Mr Xi and his inner circle won’t hear about it.

“This has created an incentive system where local officials fear saying anything about bad news,” Hernandez said. “They worry that if they are found to have done something wrong they will lose their power, so in a situation like this the incentive is to cover up, conceal, delay, and try to get a handle on these problems on your own, hoping that perhaps no one will ever hear about it.”

For months and months, Chinese local officials wanted to keep the health crisis from being reported up the chain.

“Instead they tried to cover it up, see if they could deal with it secretly and maybe no one would find out about it. Maybe Beijing wouldn’t find out about it. But eventually it broke.

China said it would make a lot of changes to its system after SARS. It said it would expand its disease-reporting system … they promised to be more transparent in the release of data and other things.”

But according to Hernandez, even the SARS outbreak couldn’t stem China’s authoritarian culture, which has only worsened under Mr Xi’s reign and made people more fearful of being associated with bad news.

“He’s made himself out to be the most powerful leader since Mao. He’s someone who’s always speaking about this great ascendant moment for China, in which China’s going to be this superpower, and anything that goes against Xi’s vision of this harmonious resurge in China will be seen as a problem and the people creating that problem will pay the consequences,” he said.

“When I was there in Wuhan I could sense the fear just ripping across all parts of society. There were people like the ambulance doctors afraid of challenging officials’ statistics. “Hospitals didn’t want to test patients for fears of knowing the results. They didn’t want to be seen as speaking out or bringing the truth of this unsavoury story into public view. They’re fearful of being seen as responsible for this crisis. They don’t want to stand out.”

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Headshot

Although I put this in the Coronavirus Stories topic, there is a lot of information in this video.

Edited by Headshot
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JonnyBravo

Another letter from my brother.

Case Fatality Rate of Coronavirus Outside China

We can start to get a better estimate of the mortality rate of the disease using simple statistics from data outside China. Without detailed stats, it's very difficult to get a fix, but with some assumptions, we can get a better guess.

The disease takes time from infection to death. Every day, more people are being infected, and time of sickness to death is highly variable. What we want to know is the answer to the question: if i get sick, what are the chances of dying.

To avoid a lot of details, the data seem to indicate 2 out of 129 sick had died, and maybe most of the 129 are in the clear. We now have 4 deaths outside China.

This gives an estimated mortality rate of 1.55%. The range of likely values is from 0.19% to 5.49%. 5% would be a scary pandemic.

The best thing we can do is get adequate sleep, which boosts our immune system, and if we catch this things, rest, rest, rest. Try to stay home. Signs of an emergency are shortness of breath, rapid breathing, a high heart rate without exhertion, and coughing blood. In that case, call the emergency.

About 15% of cases get pneumonia. You can stay home with pneunomia if it isn't severe. After recovery, some have heart damage. Estimates are all over the place.

For me, this isn't a fun time with news like this.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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We discussed the case fatality rate and how Western countries will be able to handle the Coronavirus. Well, this video is all about that. BTW, the case fatality rate is now at 15% (if China's numbers could be trusted).

 

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Kahuna

Comparison update from 11 hours ago and now

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

69286 total

1671 deaths

9790 recoveries

up a little again altho the evening totals is when it usually jumps up there more

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 29 countries and territories around the world.

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3 hours ago, JonnyBravo said:

Case Fatality Rate of Coronavirus Outside China

To avoid a lot of details, the data seem to indicate 2 out of 129 sick had died, and maybe most of the 129 are in the clear. We now have 4 deaths outside China. This gives an estimated mortality rate of 1.55%. The range of likely values is from 0.19% to 5.49%. 5% would be a scary pandemic.

It is important to note that there is a difference between Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate. For Mortality Rate, you take the total number of reported cases, and divide that number into the total deaths. This is very inaccurate because many of the reported numbers are still active, and we have no idea how they will resolve. For the Case Fatality Rate, you take the total number of deaths, and divide that by the total number of resolved cases (since total deaths is a subset of the total number of resolved cases), which also includes the number of recoveries.

In any case, The larger the sample size, the more accurate the calculated rates will be. At some point, it won't make any difference which system you use, because all of the known cases will have been resolved. Hopefully, this virus won't mutate and travel around the world three times. The sample size outside of China is simply not large enough to give you any realistic values. Total Worldwide Case Fatality Rate (including China) is presently at 15%. When they first reported it, the rate was at 20% because the numbers were still too small to get an accurate rate (and they are still too small), but as time goes on, that will likely resolve itself as the number of resolved cases and deaths grows.

The Worldwide Case Fatality Rate will likely end up between 5% and 10% when all is said and done. If, as the scientists are now prognosticating, 60% of the world's population eventually becomes infected, that will mean that between 210 million and 420 million people could die from this virus. Like the Spanish Flu (which killed between 50 million and 100 million people when the world population was much smaller), however, many of those cases and many of those deaths will never be reported (just like the Spanish Flu.

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A comment from captain obvious

Case Fatality Rate no matter how mathematically accurate overall are not accurate on a per case personnel  location basis.

Rates will be much higher in poor medical facility / few dotors countries (China, RP - especially provinces) vs Western / European ones.

Even here where you are will have a dramatic effect on your chances on if you will catch it and then survive once you do.

US and EU countries could be swamped with Coronavirus refuges 

OZ , NZ , even UK will be in a better position to close their borders - if they should decide to do so.

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wondersailor

Here is my experience with the heath care system in the Philippines. I took my girlfriend to a internal medicine doctor as she had a dry cough, slight fever and has trouble breathing. This was a week and a half ago. He simply diagnosed her with pnumonia. No chest x-ray, no blood work just listened to her lungs. Two days later she wanted to go to the hospital as she was feeling worse. In the ER the Doctor did little but flirt with her. I jumped his ass. I asked how the hell can a doctor diagnose someone with pnumonia without a chest xray??? She got the x-ray. No pnumonia. Acute bronchitis.spent 4 days in the hospital. No questions concerning her history, certainly no testing for the Corona virus. If you knew me, you would know l am far from being a medical layman. My girlfriend displayed.a number of symptoms of Corona infection and the question never came up let alone tested. To those who say that there is no active Corona virus infections in the Philippines, I would say "How would you know?". If you never test someone with symptoms you never know. So you can trust that there is no active cases of the Corona in the Philippines but I think you are probably gravely mistaken.

 

T

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