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SkyMan

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As far as increasing exponentially, I've been looking at the charts on the above page on the logarithmic scale.  A true exponential increase would produce a linear increase on the log scale.  Up to today the graph has been bending over to the right, which makes it at least a little sub exponential.  Until today's data was added.  Now it's right on track as exponential.

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Dr. Campbell gets a bit technical with his medical terms (he may be targeting other doctors), but there is still a lot of good information...

 

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Again, more than I ever wanted to know about biology, but interesting nonetheless.

 

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SkyMan

A one-off of a sign of things to follow?  Après moi, le déluge?

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mikewright

 

Some more figures released from China, as of last Sunday. Unfortunately the article doesn't provide details of the methodology used to calculate the fatality rates. :sad_01:

Quote

Hubei province reveals official fatality rates for the first time.

WUHAN • The government of Hubei province, where most of China's deaths from the coronavirus are found, has given the official fatality rates for the virus for the first time, Chinese media reported.

Unexpectedly, Wuhan, the provincial capital city where the virus first emerged, came in second with a fatality rate of 4.06 per cent, Caixin Global reported on Sunday. It was topped by Tianmen, a nearby city, which had a death rate of 5.08 per cent.

With 871 deaths reported as of Sunday, the fatality rate of Hubei province was 2.88 per cent, the report said. The province had 29,631 confirmed cases as at Sunday, 5,505 of which were in severe or critical condition. Across mainland China, there were 908 deaths as of Sunday. There were 3,062 new infections, bringing the total number so far to 40,171.

...

A Bloomberg report yesterday said the virus could infect at least 500,000 people in Wuhan - a city of 11 million - by the time it peaks in coming weeks.

Recent trends in reported cases broadly support the preliminary mathematical modelling that the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is using to predict the transmission dynamics.

"Assuming current trends continue, we are still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak" of virus cases in Wuhan, associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology Adam Kucharski told Bloomberg.

"There is a lot of uncertainty, so I am cautious about picking out a single value for the peak, but it is possible based on current data we might see a peak prevalence over 5 per cent."

That would potentially mean at least one in 20 people would have been infected in the city by the time the epidemic peaks.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hubei-province-reveals-official-fatality-rates-for-the-first-time

 

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mikewright

Not sure if this is good news or bad. On the one hand, it indicates gross under reporting of the number of cases of people infected. On the other hand, the researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

 

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Only 1 in 19 people who might have the coronavirus are being diagnosed in Wuhan, new research suggests

New estimates of novel coronavirus diagnoses in the Chinese city of Wuhan place the number of infected people far higher than 19,558, the current case count from the Chinese government.

Researchers from Imperial College London calculated in a new report that for every one person who has been tested and diagnosed with the coronavirus in Wuhan, 18 others likely have the infection but are going untested and undiagnosed.

The analysis, released Monday, is based on estimates of the rate of infection in cases outside of mainland China. The researchers looked at roughly 750 passengers who traveled from Wuhan back to their home countries on government-arranged flights. Upon their return, the travelers were all kept in isolation and tested for the coronavirus immediately; many were diagnosed, some of whom didn't present any symptoms.

The researchers applied the incidence of infection calculated in those situations to the population of Wuhan. 

The math revealed a severe under-counting of patients in Wuhan.

...

A far higher case total in Wuhan

As foreign nationals in China have evacuated and returned to their home countries, many governments have imposed quarantines. The Imperial College researchers based their analysis on passengers who had left China and returned to Japan and Germany on four flights from January 29 to February 1. All were tested for the coronavirus, and 10 infections were found among the 750 passengers.

According to the paper, that suggests a "detectable infection prevalence of 1.3%."

The researchers estimated that given the exponential rate of the coronavirus' spread, 220 out of every 100,000 Wuhan residents would get the virus on January 31 alone. Since Wuhan has 11 million residents, that means 24,000 new cases on that day. The researchers compared that number to the 1,242 reported and confirmed new cases in Wuhan on February 3 and found a 19-fold under-reporting rate.

That calculation assumes there is a 14-day window in which a patient's coronavirus infection will yield a positive test. The team also ran the numbers based on the assumption that a patient has only a seven-day period of detectable infection. In that scenario, Wuhan would have 300 new cases per every 100,000 residents on January 31. In total, that's 33,000 new cases in the city that day — 26 times the official number on February 3.

The researchers stressed, however, that testing all 11 million residents of Wuhan would be virtually impossible.

"Surveillance is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, particularly at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is limited," they wrote.

Some people who are infected also may not know they have the virus if they are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic. Additionally, scientists are still unsure whether the infection can be transmitted while an infected person is not showing symptoms.

Still, the Imperial College researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-19-people-who-might-have-coronavirus-diagnosed-2020-2

 

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SkyMan
1 hour ago, mikewright said:

Not sure if this is good news or bad. On the one hand, it indicates gross under reporting of the number of cases of people infected. On the other hand, the researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

My guess would be that if they are trying to make the numbers look better, they under report the infections and deaths but report as many recoveries as possible.  They aren't reporting many recoveries.

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Headshot
2 hours ago, mikewright said:

comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

Unfortunately, the CCP is under-reporting the deaths even more than they are under-reporting the infections. This is all about "face" saving.

9 hours ago, Headshot said:

Here is an interesting factoid...

In Wuhan, all people who died of coronavirus or unidentified lung infections (they don't have enough test kits to test dead people for coronavirus) must be cremated. Just one of Wuhan's crematoriums involved in this outbreak has 20 crematory ovens (and there appear to be six of these crematoriums in the city with an unknown total of crematory ovens), and those 20 crematory ovens have been working 24/7 since the first week of January (before the outbreak, these 20 ovens worked an average of 4 hours per day cremating bodies). Each body takes about 1.25 hours to cremate (total turn-around time).

We know that other crematoriums have been involved in this as well, but we don't know how many ovens there are total. Therefore, even if only this one crematorium was cremating bodies (which is unlikely), the total number of people who have died from this outbreak is about 12,800. This number is very conservative, assuming that the normal 4 hours per day was still cremating the normal deaths ... which is also somewhat unlikely). If the total number of crematory ovens in Wuhan was known, and how many of those have been similarly occupied, and the numbers of dead since the outbreak started in that one city could become staggering.

Edited by Headshot
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mikewright
5 minutes ago, Headshot said:

Unfortunately, the CCP is under-reporting the deaths even more than they are under-reporting the infections. This is all about "face" saving.

Quite possible. I guess that's why a lot of the current research is focusing on data collected outside of China, where the researchers can rely on the information received. The problem is that because there have been so few cases outside of China to date, there are insufficient data at this stage for them to make accurate projections or to estimate spread rates, fatality rates etc with any certainty. I guess they will have a lot more to work with as the virus becomes more widespread outside of China over the next few months.  :sad_01:

 

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Headshot
7 minutes ago, mikewright said:

Quite possible. I guess that's why a lot of the current research is focusing on data collected outside of China, where the researchers can rely on the information received. The problem is that because there have been so few cases outside of China to date, there are insufficient data at this stage for them to make accurate projections or to estimate spread rates, fatality rates etc with any certainty. I guess they will have a lot more to work with as the virus becomes more widespread outside of China over the next few months.  :sad_01:

Unfortunately, I suspect that you are right. It is likely that there will be a lot more infections (outside of China as well as more inside of China) over the next few months. It is really too bad that they didn't quarantine Wuhan early in the outbreak (and not warned the population the quarantine was coming). Five million residents escaped the city after the authorities announced that the city would be locked down the next day. That is almost half of the population. How many of those people were already infected and went to other areas inside and outside of China to further spread the virus? I hope that the bozos who decided to warn the people of the upcoming quarantine (and allowed all of those people to leave) were shot for their idiocy. They have accelerated the spread of the virus by orders of magnitude.

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mikewright
12 hours ago, Kahuna said:

Comparison update from 11 hours ago

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

60062 total

1360 deaths

5690 recovered...

still going up

Another website which shows figures almost identical to the worldmeters site is https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Currently showing 1,369 deaths and 6,233 recoveries, as 7:53PM tonight.

What is interesting about the site is that it shows the deaths and recovery rates for each region. So for Hubei, it shows 1,300 deaths, and 3,457 recoveries, a fatality rate of around 37%, and Heilongjiang, 9 deaths and 32 recoveries, about 21%. But if you look at the other areas, the recovery rates are significantly higher. Just cherry-picking a few:

Henan, 10 deaths, 290 recoveries;
Guangdong, 2 deaths, 301 recoveries;
Hainan, 4 deaths, 30 recoveries;
Shanghai, 1 death, 62 recoveries;
Beijing, 3 deaths, 68 recoveries.

 :scratch_head:

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