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Salty Dog

 

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From an on line Senior's website which I'm a Member  https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/health/covid19/glasses-cut-covid-infections-study? This although not conclusive I found interesting as

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mikecon3

I was pretty stupid when I was a drunk college student, but I don't remember being that stupid!

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SkyMan

There were people during the Spanish Flu pandemic that intentionally got infected so they could say they'd had it and recovered.  I guess it made you a more desirable employee.

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Salty Dog

 

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Edwin

I call bullshit! Name someone who attended.

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jaybee747
6 hours ago, Edwin said:

I call bullshit! Name someone who attended.

Pox parties... This was going on for years for other infections. you are going to get infected in one way or another so much better when you are young.

"In the United States, chickenpox parties were popular before the introduction of the varicella vaccine in 1995. Children were also sometimes intentionally exposed to other common childhood illnesses, such as mumps and measles. Before vaccines became available, parents knew these diseases were almost inevitable."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party

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Dafey
12 hours ago, mikecon3 said:

I was pretty stupid when I was a drunk college student, but I don't remember being that stupid!

Good thing we've got photos since you don't remember!

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HeyMike

I still can not find any numbers for NON-covid19 deaths in America for any given month. It is easy to find covid19 deaths all over the internet, but try finding NON-covid19 death numbers. Does anyone have the numbers for other-than-covid19 deaths in America for any month in 2020?

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mikewright
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, HeyMike said:

I still can not find any numbers for NON-covid19 deaths in America for any given month. It is easy to find covid19 deaths all over the internet, but try finding NON-covid19 death numbers. Does anyone have the numbers for other-than-covid19 deaths in America for any month in 2020?

Some figures here for March - April 2020. The actual numbers state by state are given in the PDF attached to the article.

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Estimation of Excess Deaths From COVID-19 in the United States, March to May 2020

 

Daniel M. Weinberger, PhD; Jenny Chen, BS; Ted Cohen, MD, DPH; Forrest W. Crawford, PhD; Farzad Mostashari, MD; Don Olson, MPH; Virginia E. Pitzer, ScD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Marcus Russi, BS; Lone Simonsen, PhD; Anne Watkins, BS; Cecile Viboud, PhD

 

The number of publicly reported deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Such estimates rely on provisional data that are often incomplete and may omit undocumented deaths from COVID-19. Moreover, restrictions imposed by the pandemic (eg, stay-at-home orders) could claim lives indirectly through delayed care for acute emergencies, exacerbations of chronic diseases, and psychological distress (eg, drug overdoses). This study estimated excess deaths in the early weeks of the pandemic and the relative contribution of COVID-19 and other causes.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

Edited by mikewright
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HeyMike
49 minutes ago, mikewright said:

Some figures here for March - April 2020. The actual numbers state by state are given in the PDF attached to the article.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

Thanks Mike. I am not sure I understand the pdf data for the time period (March 1 to April 25).. For example, Illinois has an observed deaths 20,310.

Covid19 deaths 2,051.

I don't understand the "Deaths not attributed to covid19" (last columns).

Is it a safe assumption to say ... Illinois had 20,310 deaths; ...2,051 were from covid19, therefore 18,259 were from reasons other than covid19? 

Or, am I misunderstanding the numbers?

 

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Dafey
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image.png.e74521e2a4aeb12b824d436981c44e91.png

Japanese theme parks are telling visitors not to scream when they go on the rides, as a measure against the coronavirus, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The rule, which most parks are following, is not being strictly enforced but was encouraged by two theme park executives who demonstrated taking a ride without screaming, the paper reported. 

The video they took has sparked a "serious face challenge," where people film themselves trying not to scream on rides, according to the WSJ.

Nonetheless, they told the paper how difficult the rule is to stick to. 

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/travel/news/japanese-theme-parks-are-telling-people-not-to-scream-on-its-rollercoasters-to-avoid-spreading-covid-19/ar-BB16x8tz?ocid=msedgdhp

 

 

 

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SkyMan

Can't say I've ever screamed on a ride.  I like to take pics of my wife screaming though.  Hahahaha

Edited by SkyMan
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mikewright
On 7/7/2020 at 12:27 PM, HeyMike said:

Thanks Mike. I am not sure I understand the pdf data for the time period (March 1 to April 25).. For example, Illinois has an observed deaths 20,310.

Covid19 deaths 2,051.

I don't understand the "Deaths not attributed to covid19" (last columns).

Is it a safe assumption to say ... Illinois had 20,310 deaths; ...2,051 were from covid19, therefore 18,259 were from reasons other than covid19? 

Or, am I misunderstanding the numbers?

 

Mike, I'm sure I don't understand all of the data either! Way out of my league!

From what I can see, the table on page E4 shows 33,296 actual deaths in Illinois for the period 1 March to end of May 2020. Of those, 4,911 were officially recorded as COVID-19 deaths, leaving 28,385 not recorded as being covid- related.

Using modelling based on weekly death counts from December  2013 to February 2020, taking into account seasonality and adjusted for annual trends, state by state, the writers calculated the number of deaths which would have been expected in Illinois over that period would have been 25,800.

In other words, they estimated that 7,500 "excess" deaths occurred over the period, 7,500 more deaths than would have been expected according to their modelling. Excess deaths equaled the difference between the actual recorded deaths and the expected number of deaths over the period.

Of that 7,500 "excess" deaths, 4,911 were officially recorded as being caused by COVID-19.

When taken nationally, the report estimates that there were  122,300  more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95,235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19–reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability ofCOVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records.

The report lists many of its limitations and areas where further research is necessary.

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Discussion

These estimates suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths reported in the first weeks of the pandemic captured only two-thirds of excess deaths in the US. Potential explanations include delayed reporting of COVID-19 deaths and misattribution of COVID-19 deaths to other respiratory illnesses (eg, pneumonia) or to nonrespiratory causes reflecting complications of COVID-19 (eg, coagulopathy, myocarditis). Few excess deaths involved pneumonia or influenza as underlying causes.

This study has limitations, including the reliance on provisional data, potentially inaccurate death certificates, and modeling assumptions. For example, modeling epidemiologic, instead of calendar, years would reduce the excess deaths estimate to 73 524.

Large increases in mortality from heart disease, diabetes, and other diseases were observed. Further investigation is required to determine the extent to which these trends represent nonrespiratory manifestations of COVID-19 or secondary pandemic mortality caused by disruptions in society that diminished or delayed access to health care and the social determinants of health (eg, jobs, income, food security).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086?appId=scweb

 There's a more up-to-date table, to June 27, in the following article, including a chart for Illinois. As with the first article, the data and underlying methodology way out of my league!

 

Quote

Mortality data on deaths due to pneumonia & influenza through the week ending 2020-06-27

Overview

Background Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza or due to all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19.

Methods We evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to any cause above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or deaths due to coronaivirus/P&I (P&I&C) for March-early-May across the United States. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data. Detailed methods can be found here

Conclusions Excess deaths provide an estimate of full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus.

https://weinbergerlab.github.io/excess_pi_covid/

 

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SkyMan

I don't know about repeat cases but that may be due to testing inaccuracy.  Maybe someone got a wrong negative result and later positive or maybe the second positive was wrong.  I don't read much about it and it seems that would be big news.  As far as the antibodies going away in a short time, it's my understanding that the while the antibodies go away, the map to build those antibodies remains.  So that if there is a reinfection, the right antibodies can be spun up quickly reducing the severity.  This may be a false hope but if is then there isn't much hope for any kind of vaccine.  So I  would rather hang onto that than consign myself to permanent quarantine.

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SkyMan

This is a chart so doesn't copy over very well.  It's a COVID death by country list including per capita (Cases Per Million of Population) with Belgium at #1 with 857 cases per million, the US at #7 with 414 cases per million, and the Philippines at like #78 with 15 cases per million.  Which is why we need to be locked down and have police searching house to house for cases.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/?fbclid=IwAR2ZvDmM3jnr0v-Y8WBLiqb8gQ1sXXiTjmFe1DjGw0AVcBW3zryC_7CsSNs

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