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JonnyBravo

Another letter from my brother.

Some potentially good news about the coronavirus

South Korea has been using an excellent surveilance system, so they have captured many cases that have SARS Cov-2. In estimating the mortlity rate, it's crucial to get the total number infected. The Korean system may give us a better estimate than most countries.

Bottom line, their estimate is about 0.6% or 6 in 1000. That's 4 times less lethal than the common estimate of 2.5%. Some say this statistic is in line with some of the more severe flu seasons.

Some people have come forward and stated their experiences with the disease. Many have said it's like a heavy cold without the sneezing. Fever, dry cough, and fatigue seem to be common. A larger proportion than 1% are asymptomatic or nearly so.

Those who head toward severe illness say it starts off mild, but at a certain point, things suddenly get much worse. This change happens in minutes to hours. I have to wonder if this is a result of "bad genes." Their makeup may enable the virus to replicate well. I heard people say the word "cytokine storm." Let's hope not.

Medcram gave a particularly good lecture yesterday. Worth listening to. Some parts require knowledge of high school biology but also offers advice with Vitamin D.




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Kahuna
59 minutes ago, JonnyBravo said:

Another letter from my brother.

Some potentially good news about the coronavirus

South Korea has been using an excellent surveilance system, so they have captured many cases that have SARS Cov-2. In estimating the mortlity rate, it's crucial to get the total number infected. The Korean system may give us a better estimate than most countries.

Bottom line, their estimate is about 0.6% or 6 in 1000. That's 4 times less lethal than the common estimate of 2.5%. Some say this statistic is in line with some of the more severe flu seasons.

Some people have come forward and stated their experiences with the disease. Many have said it's like a heavy cold without the sneezing. Fever, dry cough, and fatigue seem to be common. A larger proportion than 1% are asymptomatic or nearly so.

Those who head toward severe illness say it starts off mild, but at a certain point, things suddenly get much worse. This change happens in minutes to hours. I have to wonder if this is a result of "bad genes." Their makeup may enable the virus to replicate well. I heard people say the word "cytokine storm." Let's hope not.

Medcram gave a particularly good lecture yesterday. Worth listening to. Some parts require knowledge of high school biology but also offers advice with Vitamin D.
 

 


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thank you,,:thumbs_up:

Headshot's been keeping us up to speed with the same guy as well as a few others but it's good to hear others chiming  in too  :thumbs_up:

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Dafey
2 hours ago, JonnyBravo said:

Those who head toward severe illness say it starts off mild, but at a certain point, things suddenly get much worse. This change happens in minutes to hours. I have to wonder if this is a result of "bad genes." Their makeup may enable the virus to replicate well. I heard people say the word "cytokine storm." Let's hope not.

Good report, thx

What I've read on the subject suggests that when the virus starts attacking the tiny cells in an infected persons windpipe that filter out the dust, germs and other nasties, the Covid19 hits harder than most viruses. It actually destroys many of these cells which in turn allow Pneumonia to set into the lungs.

Most flu type virus attack these same cells but only to the point that they are swollen and inflamed vs. the Covid19 destroying them. These cells take quite a while to grow back after recovery.

 

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Kahuna

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Comparison update from yesterday to now

106,065 total

3,598 deaths

60,174 recoveries

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 102 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan)

Quote

Latest Updates

March 7 (GMT):

5 new cases in Peru: 4 are connected to the first case, 1 is in the Arequipa region [source]

3rd death in Australia: a NSW man in his 80s who contracted the virus in his nursing home [source]

115 new cases and 4 new deaths in the United States, including:

1st case in Kansas [source]

34 new cases in New York [source] New York governor declares state of emergency

2 new cases in Pennsylvania, Montgomery County [source]

1st case in Washington, D.C. [source]

1 in Connecticut: a community physician in the Bridgeport area [source]

1 new case in Florida (Charlotte County) [source]

6 in Massachusetts, including 1 in Berkshire County [source] [source]

2 new deaths and 3 new cases in Florida (first deaths on the east coast) [source]

22 new cases and 3 new deaths in Washington state [source]

17 new cases in California:
- 8 in Santa Clara County [source]
- 6 in San Francisco [source]
- 1 in Los Angeles County [source]
- 1 in Madera County [source]
- 1 in Alameda County: a former passenger on the now-quarantined Grand Princess cruise ship, an older adult who has underlying health conditions and is currently hospitalized. Alameda County’s Public Health Department is urging all residents who were on the Grand Princess cruise from Feb. 11 to Feb. 21 to get tested if they are experiencing any symptoms [source]

First 2 cases in South Carolina: an elderly woman in Kershaw County who has been hospitalized and an adult woman from Charleston County who had recently traveled to France and Italy [source]

1 new case in Illinois: a woman in her 50s who works as an aide at a Chicago high school [source]

1st case in Utah: the patient was a passenger of the Grand Princess cruise ship [source]

6 new cases in Colorado [source]

1st case in Hawaii: a former passenger of the Grand Princess cruise ship (that docked on Oahu in late February) who did not feel well after a few days after returning home and went to see their doctor. The Department of Health said, “We don’t believe the patient had close contact with anyone else, but we’re still investigating.” [source]

1 in New Jersey: a male in his 50s hospitalized at Englewood Hospital and Medical Center in Bergen County [source]

 First 2 cases in Bulgaria: a 27-year old man and a 75-year old woman [source]

 1st death in Argentina: a 64-year old man who had traveled to France [source]

4 new cases in Israel: 2 had recently traveled to Spain, 1 to Italy, 1 to Greece [source]

 Italy has authorized new emergency measures against the spread of coronavirus:
- the entire region of Lombardy is in lockdown. It is possible to enter and exit only in case of emergency
- the “red zone” is extended to 11 additional provinces: Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Venezia, Padova, Treviso, Asti e Alessandria. The measures will be in place until April 3 [source]

 1st case in Moldova: a 48-year old woman who fell ill while on a Wizzair flight from Milan to Chișinău [source]

21 new cases in Greece: 13 are located in the prefectures of Achaia and Elis, 7 in the Attica, 1 in Euboea [source]

6 new cases in Canada (British Columbia) including 2 residents of a North Vancouver long-term care home [source]

 296 new cases and 7 new deaths in France [source] 2 members of France’s National Assembly tested positive for coronavirus [source]

33 new cases in Egypt: they are all passengers of a cruise ship in the River Nile [source]

1 new case in Ireland: a man in the east of Ireland associated with travel from northern Italy [source]

 1st case in Paraguay [source]

Uganda has canceled all international conferences, including the G77 summit that was scheduled to take place in April, with participants from 136 member states. Furthermore, any traveler from Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, China, Germany, and Spain will be subjected to self-quarantine for 14 days on arrival in Uganda even if they do not exhibit symptoms of COVID-19 [source]

8 new cases in Iraq [source]

 1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy [source]
Percentage of deaths by age group:
90+ years old: 6% of deaths
80 - 89 years old: 42% of deaths
70 - 79 years old: 35% of deaths
60 - 69 years old: 16% of deaths

- Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care

- Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died

Nicola Zingaretti, leader of Italy's Democratic Party, tested positive to coronavirus [source]
 

6 new cases in Lebanon [source]

1 new case in Russia: a woman residing in Moscow who had traveled to Switzerland [source]

130 new cases in Germany [source]

5 new cases in Iceland: 2 had traveled abroad, 3 had contacts with preciously confirmed cases who had been abroad [source]

1 new case in Romania, the 1st in Bucharest: a 49-year-old man who flew back from Rome, Italy on Feb. 27. No quarantine was required since the city was not (and is still not) considered at risk for coronavirus within Italy. A week after returning, he started having diarrhea and fever. The man went last night to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Matei Balș with fever but with symptomatology that "does not fit into the case definition of COVID-19." He was nevertheless tested since he had traveled to Italy [source]

 First 2 cases in the Maldives. Both are in quarantine in Farukolhufushi. 3 islands currently on temporary lockdown [source]

7 new cases in Portugal:
2 latest: a 44-year-old man and a 39-year-old woman, both linked to the Barrosas footwear factory in Felgueiras [source]
3 reported earlier: two men and a woman [source]
2 reported this morning: a 20-years-old and a 60-years-old women admitted to the hospital in São João, both with connections to one of the infected people in the same hospital [source]

5 new cases in the Czech Republic, including: [source]
- a woman, tenant of a previously infected person
- a resident of Passo Tonale, Trentino, Italy

3 new cases in Palestine who were in contact with the patients at the Angel Hotel in Beit Jala. They were placed in the National Center for Quarantine in Bethlehem [source]

15 new cases in Austria [source]

42 new cases in the UK [source]

6 new cases in Denmark [source]

United States: only 1,895 people have been tested so far, The Atlantic found

60 new cases in the Netherlands [source]

1 new case in Cambodia: a 38-year old man who had come into contact with the first case [source]

8 new cases and 8 new discharges in Singapore [source]

102 new cases and 2 new deaths in Spain [source] [source]

2 new cases in Saudi Arabia coming from Iran and Iraq [source]

24 new cases in Sweden [source]

2 new cases in Romania: [source]
- a 15-years-old young woman in in Timisoara attending the same school (but in another class) where 2 other students have already been diagnosed with Covid-19. She had a fever of 39.5 degrees and coughing, but her conditions are improving.
- the 16-years-old daughter of the 40-year-old man who tested positive in Hunedoara. They had also traveled on the same plane. She is asymptomatic for now

4 new cases in Slovenia: [source]
- a Slovenian citizen who traveled to Italy (including Venice) for two weeks
- a close contact with an infected doctor from Metlika
- a Slovenian citizen who came from Austria, where he fell ill
a man who traveled through Italy to Spain with his family

1 new case in Poland: a person traveling with patient "zero" in the bus from Germany to Poland [source]

 60 new cases in Belgium [source] bringing the total to 169 "Most of the positive patients have recently traveled, but we are seeing more and more local infections," said a FPS Public Health official, adding that “the number of cases detected has not doubled. It is therefore possible that the return effect from travelers from northern Italy may end” [source]

1 new case in South Africa: a 39-year-old woman from Gauteng who was part of the same group of 10 people that recently traveled from Italy [source]

25 new cases in Bahrain [source]

3 new cases in India: 2 are from Ladakh with travel history to Iran and one is from Tamil Nadu with travel history to Oman[source]

3 new cases in Afghanistan in the western province of Herat which borders Iran. Afghanistan’s health ministry spokesman, Wahidullah Mayar, expressed concern about the vulnerability of Afghanistan’s border with Iran and added that the cost of testing would be a strain on Afghanistan’s resource-strapped health system. Each test kit - which can test around 50 cases - cost around $1600, he said [source]

1 new case in Croatia: a person in Varaždin who is a close contact of a previous case. "Patient zero" in Croatia is a young man who came from Italy [source]

4 new cases in Finland: 2 adults in Pirkanmaa who were on the same traveling group from northern Italy as those previously infected in Finland, and 2 man in Uusimaa who returned from northern Italy [source]

4 new cases in Georgia "Please, don’t panic. There is no reason to panic” said the Head of the Georgian National Centre for Disease Control Amiran Gamkrelidze, noting that the most dangerous country for Georgia for now is Italy as most people who have tested positive for COVID-19 have arrived from there [source] [source]

 1,076 new cases and 21 new deaths in Iran [source]

2 new cases in Slovakia: the son and wife of the man who was diagnosed yesterday. The son, who had been to Venice, Italy between February 14 and 15 and did not show any symptoms of the virus, has been identified as "patient zero" (the first contact patient in Slovakia). All flights from the Slovak international airports to Italy will be banned as of Monday, March 9 [source]

10 new cases in Malaysia [source]

3 new cases in Vietnam [source] including a 27-year-old patient who had been to the South Korean city of Daegu, returned to Vietnam on a Vietjet flight on Wednesday and was quarantined upon his landing, the ministry said in a statement [source]

2 new cases in the Philippines of local transmission, prompting the Department of Health to raise the nationwide alert level. New cases are a 59-year-old man and a 62-year-old Filipino man from Cainta (Rizal province) with no recent travel history abroad. The government's contract tracing teams have yet to determine how he contracted the virus [source]

1 new case in Qatar: a Qatari citizen who had returned from Iran recently [source]

1 new case in Hungary: a 70-year-old Hungarian man with pre-existing diseases, currently being quarantined and treated at the Central Hospital of Southern Pest. "He was probably infected by his son living abroad, who visited him in mid-February after visiting Italy and Paris" according to the Hungarian government's report [source]

3 new cases in Kuwait [source]

 First 3 cases reported in Malta: a 12-year-old Italian girl and both her parents who had returned, via Rome, from a holiday trip in northern Italy on Tuesday. They were in self-quarantine and are now isolated in an infectious disease unit at Mater Dei Hospital. “The children did not go to school and the parents did not go to work or leave the house. Their contact with other people was minimal” [source]

2 new cases in Thailand: “both are Thai males aged 40" according to the Ministry of Public Health [source]

2 new cases in Algeria: 1 belongs to the same family as the 16 already infected last week; 1 comes from Europe (specific country not provided) [source]

1 new case in Ecuador [source]

2 new cases in Switzerland [source]

29 new cases in Norway [source]

15 new cases in Japan [source] [source]

5 new cases in Brazil, including:: a patient in Rio de Janeiro who had recently traveled abroad [source]

448 new cases and 5 new deaths in South Korea [source]

1 new case in New Zealand: a woman in her 40s, partner of the third case [source]

11 new cases in Australia, including [source]
1 in Victoria: a doctor who had recently returned from the US [source]

99 new cases (74 in Hubei), 28 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 1,678 new discharges occurred in China on March 6, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source

 

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Headshot

Supposedly, the creation and distribution of the virus was called the Pandora's Box Project and was performed at the Wuhan level 4 biolab by Guo Deyin. I have no idea if this information is real. Guo Wengui definitely has nothing good to say about the CCP nor do they have anything good to say about him. At the very least, if what he says is true, a lot of people have died and were cremated in Wuhan. It is anybody's guess how many died outside of Wuhan, but this puts some perspective on what happened inside of Wuhan (if it is real). If the story is true, then they are just transferring bodies directly from the hospitals to the portable crematoriums, and they aren't likely keeping records. This video was released a week ago, but Guo Wengui has released others in the last couple of months. I just saw this because my wife showed me a story in Facebook about this, and I looked it up.

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Headshot

I'm not sure why this video disappeared from my last post. It is now telling me that there is no video at this URL. Youtube is showing that the video has been removed by the user, but that isn't true. This gets stranger and stranger.

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Salty Dog
17 minutes ago, Headshot said:

I'm not sure why this video disappeared from my last post. It is now telling me that there is no video at this URL. Youtube is showing that the video has been removed by the user, but that isn't true. This gets stranger and stranger.

What's not true? That it's been removed or that it's been removed by the user… 

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Headshot
15 minutes ago, Salty Dog said:

What's not true? That it's been removed or that it's been removed by the user… 

That is was removed by the user. Guo Wengui doesn't remove any of his videos, but videos have been removed.

 

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SkyMan
19 hours ago, cookie47 said:

Coronavirus infections could increase tenfold every 19 days, study says

At that rate, the population of the Earth would be exceeded in about 33 days.

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cookie47
At that rate, the population of the Earth would be exceeded in about 33 days.
Yeah, I read the article but didn't do the maths.

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SkyMan

Another doomed cruise ship....

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-07/spread-of-coronavirus-on-grand-princess-ship-raises-public-health-alarms

Quote

Grand Princess passengers still in limbo amid debate over origin of coronavirus outbreak

image.thumb.png.3ffd1186946aa75682f7eadb61f63beb.png

The California Air National Guard delivered coronavirus test kits to the Grand Princess cruise ship by helicopter off the coast of California on Thursday.

(California Air National Guard)

By ALEJANDRA REYES-VELARDE, 

ANITA CHABRIA, MELODY GUTIERREZ, NOAH BIERMAN

MARCH 7, 2020

7:50 PM

Thousands of passengers remained on a cruise ship held off the coast of San Francisco on Saturday as officials debated the origins of the coronavirus outbreak that has prevented them from disembarking.

The fate of the Grand Princess has become a significant public health challenge, with a dozen coronavirus cases in California linked to passengers who traveled on the ship to Mexico last month. They include a Placer County man who died of COVID-19 on Wednesday.

At least 21 of the nearly 3,000 people who subsequently took the same ship to Hawaii have tested positive for the virus. All of those passengers remain on board, and many more still need to be tested. It’s unclear what will happen to those who are found to be sick.

A cruise line medical officer said Saturday that the man who died brought the virus with him when he boarded the Grand Princess — a point public health officials disputed.

Dr. Grant Tarling, the cruise’s medical officer, said the man — who died at Kaiser Permanente Roseville Medical Center after leaving the ship — sought onboard medical care Feb. 20 and had been sick for several days. Tarling said two waiters who served the man multiple times were subsequently infected.

If true, it could mean there was so-called community spread of the virus in California earlier than had previously been detected.

Placer County’s health officer, however, questioned Tarling’s statement and said the passenger probably contracted the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 while on the cruise.

“Placer County Public Health has been consistent in our message that our first COVID-19-related fatality likely contracted the disease during international travel to Mexico,” Dr. Aimee Sisson said. “As is standard public health practice, we have based our assessment on the information learned in our contact investigation as well as what we know to be true about the disease pattern.”

Though Princess Cruises officials indicated the short period between the Placer County man boarding the ship and the onset of his symptoms suggested he brought the virus on board, the incubation period for COVID-19 is still unknown. The World Health Organization puts it between one and 14 days, most commonly around five days.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Obama administration, agreed the average incubation period was five to six days, with a range between two days and two weeks.

“We don’t yet know when people who have symptoms are infectious, and for how long,” Frieden said.

Tarling said he was basing his assertion that the Placer County man contracted the virus in California before boarding the ship on the five- to six-day average incubation period.

The 75-year-old Placer County man said his symptoms began two to three days after boarding the Grand Princess, according to Tarling.

Coronavirus cases had been confirmed in California as early as January, tied to travel from China.

President Trump has expressed concern that allowing passengers to leave the ship would put the U.S. at risk of accelerating the coronavirus’ spread. Federal and state officials have grappled with how to deal with the cruise ship, where 19 crew members and two passengers have tested positive for the virus.

Vice President Mike Pence said Saturday that officials have developed a plan for passengers that will be implemented this weekend.

“All passengers and crew will be tested for coronavirus and quarantined as appropriate,” he said in a meeting with cruise line executives and port directors in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “Those that require additional medical attention will also receive it.”

But few other details have been released about the plan.

Across the state, 88 people had been infected with the virus as of Saturday morning. In the U.S., there have been at least 428 confirmed cases, with most in Washington state, where 108 people have tested positive and 16 have died. More than 100,000 people have been infected worldwide, according to the World Health Organization.

In California, it is the Grand Princess cruise ship that has been causing worry of a more widespread outbreak.

By Saturday, the state said a dozen passengers of the Grand Princess cruise that returned to San Francisco on Feb. 21 had tested positive for the virus. Local officials reported four cases in Placer County, two in Contra Costa County, two in Sonoma County and one each in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Madera and Alameda counties tied to the cruise.

The Placer County man who sailed to Mexico is the state’s only confirmed COVID-19 fatality.

The Grand Princess was returning from Hawaii when it was held off the California coast. With testing still underway, officials don’t know how many of the more than 3,000 people on board have the virus.

Friday evening, gloves and masks were delivered to the cruise ship by helicopter, according to Negin Kamali, a spokeswoman for the Princess Cruises company. On Saturday morning, a critically ill passenger and their companion were evacuated from the ship by a Coast Guard cutter.

“They are being transported to a shoreside medical facility for treatment unrelated to COVID-19,” Kamali said. “The captain of Grand Princess and the Princess Cruises port operations team continue to await specific directives from state and local response operations about where the ship will proceed.”

(More at the Link)

 

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