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Kahuna

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 77 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan)

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Latest Updates

March 3 (GMT):

China: Travelers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated and placed in a 14-day quarantine, a Beijing official said. Shanghai and Guangdong announced similar restrictions earlier. [source] Out of the 11 new cases confirmed in China outside of Hubei yesterday, 7 where Chinese citizens returning from Italy. They worked at a restaurant in Bergamo and were close contacts with a previous case [source]

UK: The government is working on the basis that it will take 2 - 3 months months after the first sustained human to human transmission for the outbreak to peak. That potentially key point on time frames was spelled out by Britain’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. After that, it would take another 2 - 3 months for it to taper off. [source]

1 new cases in Croatia [source]

2 new cases in San Marino [source]

6 new cases in the Netherlands [source]

5 new cases in Belgium [source]

7 new cases in Norway [source]

23 new cases in Germany [source]

9 new cases in Sweden: 4 in  Stockholm County, 3 in Gothenburg County, 1 in Skane County, and 1 in Jonkoping County. All cases are linked to travel in Northern Italy. [source] [source]

1 new case in the UK: 1st in Gibraltar. a person who had recently returned from Northern Italy. "Recovery is proceeding well" [source] Public Health England previously reported the number of cases for March 2 as 40, however this dropped to 39 after a patient diagnosed over the weekend had a confirmatory test come back negative.  [source]

 1st case in Ukraine: a man who traveled from Italy, now hospitalized since Saturday, Feb. 29 n the western city of Chernivtsi.

 835 new cases, 11 new deaths, and 144 new recoveries in Iran [source]

2 new cases in Denmark: they had been on holiday in Northern Italy and both returned to Denmark on Saturday, Feb. 29 [source]

2 new cases in the Czech Republic: two women who were in contact with the previous cases. The last case had tested negative the first time. The first Czech fell ill after returning from an Italian university. [source] [source]

3 new cases in Austria [source]

15 new cases in Switzerland, bringing the total to 45, distributed as follows: Zurich 9, Graubünden 9, Geneva 8, Basel Country 3, Bern 3, Basel City 3, Vaud 2, Valais 2, Fribourg 2, Aargau 2, Zug 1, Ticino 1 [source]

32 new cases in Spain [source]

6 new cases in Australia, of which at least 4 in New South Wales [source]

(2 new cases in Portugal,  a 24-year-old doctor and a doctor from Vila Real, have not been confirmed) [source]

1 new case in Qatar:  a Qatari citizen who was evacuated from Iran by Qatar on a private plane on Feb. 27. [source]

7 new cases in Malaysia [source]

1 new case in Taiwan [source]

1 new case in Pakistan [source]

9 new cases in Japan [source] [source] [source] [source] [source]

3 new cases in the United States:
2 in Georgia: an individual who was in Milan, Italy and a close contact in the household. [source]
1 in Massachusetts: a woman in her 20s who lives in Norfolk County and recently traveled to Italy with a school group. She is recovering at home. [source]

1 new case in Ecuador [source]

1 new case in Australia (Queensland) [source]

 851 new cases in South Korea [source] [source]

125 new cases, 31 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 2,742 new discharges occurred in China on March 2, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]

 

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Kahuna

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 Comparison update from yesterday to now

93,153 total

3,202 deaths

50,944 recoveries

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 80 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

Quote

Latest Updates

March 4 (GMT):

3 new cases in Canada (British Columbia) [source]

March 3:

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

Source: Vox Interview

 

1 new case in New Zealand: The woman arrived in Auckland from Singapore on Feb. 25 with Air New Zealand flight NZ0283 on her return from Italy. [source]

3 new cases in Canada, bringing the total to 30 in the country: 20 in Ontario; 9 in British Columbia and 1 in Quebec. [source]
1 in British Columbia: a man in his 50s who also recently returned from Iran [source]
2 in Ontario: a woman in her 70s with travel history to Egypt and a man in his 50s who returned from Iran [source]

The United States now has a total of 118 cases: 70 domestic and 48 repatriated (45 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and 3 from Wuhan, China). Domestic cases by state:
27 in Washington State (including 9 deaths)
20 in California
4 in Illinois
3 in Florida
3 in Oregon
2 in Arizona
2 in Georgia
2 in Massachusetts
2 in New York
2 in Rhode Island
1 in New Hampshire
1 in North Carolina
1 in Wisconsin

1 new case in Ireland "a female in the east of the country and is associated with travel from northern Italy." Dr Tony Holohan, Ireland’s chief medical officer told Reuters.

 1st case in Chile [source]

 1st case in North Carolina, United States. [source]Authorities said the case is linked to the Life Care Center in Kirkland, northeast of Seattle, where 5 residents (among the about 200 people living or working there), got infected and later died of the virus.[source]

6 new cases in the United Arab Emirates. [source] Schools closed for 4 weeks [source] Concerts, sports events cancelled to reduce the spread of coronavirus [source]

Kenya suspends flights from Milan and Verona, Italy. [source]

3 new cases in Algeria

1 new case in Senegal [source]

6 new cases in Denmark including: [source]
2 who had been on holiday in Northern Italy and both returned to Denmark on Saturday, Feb. 29 [source]

2 new cases in Portugal: one in Lisbon and another one in Porto [source]

1 new case in Estonia [source]

6 new cases in Sweden, all in Stockholm [source]

 3 new deaths in the United States: for a total of 9 deaths, all in Washington State [source]

USA: a total of 108 cases and 6 deaths have been officially confirmed in 12 states of the United States: [source]
- 60 domestic cases (of which 22 travel-related, 11 person-to-person spread , and 27 under investigation)
- 48 among persons repatriated (45 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and 3 from Wuhan, China)

 45 new cases and 1 new death (first in the country) in Spain [source]

 1st case in Argentina [source]

5 new cases in Iraq [source]

 466 new cases and 27 new deaths in Italy, for a total of 2,502 cases and 79 deaths to date. [source] [source]
Among the 2,263 active cases, 1,034 (46%) are hospitalized, 229 of which (representing 10% of active cases) are in intensive care.
Among the 239 closed cases, 160 (67%) have recovered, 79 (33%) have died.

1st case in Liechtenstein: a young man who had contacts with an infected person in Switzerland. [source]

1st case in Sweden has recovered: a 20 year-old woman who had tested positive to the virus on Jan. 31 after returning home from Wuhan in China on Jan. 24. [source]

6 new cases in Austria [source] [source]

 851 new cases and 4 new deaths in South Korea [source] [source] [source]

 21 new cases and 1 new death in France [source]

2 new cases in Oman: all related to travel to Iran, four are Iranian nationals and two are Bahraini citizens [source]

2 new cases in Iceland, and 1 new recovery (the first confirmed case in the country). The two new cases had boarded flights from Verona in Italy on Saturday and had stayed in ski areas in northern Italy. [source]

12 new cases in the UK. [source] The government is working on the basis that it will take 2 - 3 months after the first sustained human to human transmission for the outbreak to peak. That potentially key point on time frames was spelled out by Britain’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance. After that, it would take another 2 - 3 months for it to taper off. [source]

1st case in Gibraltar. a person who had recently returned from Northern Italy. "Recovery is proceeding well" [source] Public Health England previously reported the number of cases for March 2 as 40, however this dropped to 39 after a patient diagnosed over the weekend had a confirmatory test come back negative.  [source]
 

2 new cases in Singapore [source]

China: Travelers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated and placed in a 14-day quarantine, a Beijing official said. Shanghai and Guangdong announced similar restrictions earlier. [source] Out of the 11 new cases confirmed in China outside of Hubei yesterday, 7 where Chinese citizens returning from Italy. They worked at a restaurant in Bergamo and were close contacts with a previous case [source]

1 new case in Romania:  a man from Timisoara, who came in contact with an already diagnosed patient, who recently returned from Italy [source]

1 new cases in Croatia [source]

2 new cases in San Marino [source]

5 new cases in the Netherlands (an additional one previously reported was later retracted) [source]

5 new cases in Belgium [source]

8 new cases in Norway [source] [source]

31 new cases in Germany [source]

9 new cases in Sweden: 4 in  Stockholm County, 3 in Gothenburg County, 1 in Skane County, and 1 in Jonkoping County. All cases are linked to travel in Northern Italy. [source] [source]

 1st case in Ukraine: a man who traveled from Italy, now hospitalized since Saturday, Feb. 29 n the western city of Chernivtsi.

 835 new cases, 11 new deaths, and 144 new recoveries in Iran [source]

1 new case in the Czech Republic: a classmate of an infected American woman in Prague. She had tested negative the first time. The first Czech fell ill after returning from an Italian university.[source]

28 new cases in Switzerland. [source]

6 new cases in Australia, of which at least 4 in New South Wales [source]

(2 new cases in Portugal,  a 24-year-old doctor and a doctor from Vila Real, have not been confirmed) [source]

1 new case in Qatar:  a Qatari citizen who was evacuated from Iran by Qatar on a private plane on Feb. 27. [source]

1 new case and 1 new discharge in Hong Kong [source]

7 new cases in Malaysia [source]

1 new case in Taiwan [source]

1 new case in Pakistan [source]

19 new cases in Japan [source] [source] [source] [source] [source]

8 new cases in the United States including:
1 in New York [source]
2 in Georgia: an individual who was in Milan, Italy and a close contact in the household. [source]
1 in Massachusetts: a woman in her 20s who lives in Norfolk County and recently traveled to Italy with a school group. She is recovering at home. [source]

1 new case in Ecuador [source]

1 new case in Australia (Queensland) [source]

125 new cases, 31 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 2,742 new discharges occurred in China on March 2, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]

 

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mikewright

Pandemic Bonds issued by the World Bank in 2017 with much fanfare not looking so flash now.

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An inside look at the debate around pandemic bonds, which have $425 million hinging on how deadly the coronavirus ends up being

Ben Winck Feb. 14, 2020, 08:12 AM

  • Investors holding the World Bank's pandemic bonds stand to either reap massive profits or lose hundreds of millions of dollars, depending on the coronavirus outbreak's lethality.
  • The instruments offer higher-than-average returns, but bondholders will lose their principal in the event of a qualifying pandemic.
  • If certain criteria are met, the payment is sent to the World Bank's Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility to fund relief efforts.
  • The bonds are a novel way to connect the financial sector with epidemic relief and "potentially save millions of lives," the World Bank's president said in a 2017 statement.
  • Others aren't so sure of the assets' effectiveness in curbing an outbreak.
  • The bonds' triggers "are very late," and the organization could've funded relief efforts without the "unnecessary, inappropriate, and ineffective risk-financing instruments," Olga Jonas, senior fellow senior fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health, told Business Insider.

A group of unique bondholders will either reap massive profits or lose hundreds of millions of dollars as the coronavirus outbreak escalates.

So-called "pandemic bonds" were first introduced by the World Bank in 2017 as a response to the Ebola virus. Investors holding the bonds enjoy higher-than-average interest rates, but stand to lose their cash in the event of a pandemic.

If certain criteria are met, the bonds' principal is transferred to the World Bank's Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility (PEF) to fund containment and relief efforts.

"We are leveraging our capital market expertise, our deep understanding of the health sector, our experience overcoming development challenges, and our strong relationships with donors and the insurance industry to serve the world's poorest people," Jim Yong Kim, World Bank Group's president, said in a 2017 statement, adding that the PEF can "potentially save millions of lives."

The bank issued two tranches of pandemic-linked bonds and derivatives collectively worth $425 million in 2017. Bondholders enjoyed more than two years of strong returns and little to worry about as few outbreaks came close to triggering the bonds' total default.

But the stability of the investment has suddenly been thrown into question as the deadly coronavirus spreads globally.

Triggers for the two classes of bonds

The two tranches of pandemic bonds represent different risks of contagion. The World Bank offered $225 million worth of Class A debt, which pay out 6.9% annually. The bonds default if pandemic-related deaths reach 2,500 in a single nation with an additional 20 or more deaths confirmed in an overseas country, according to the bank's prospectus.

The Class B bonds have a lower bar for the debt to trigger and accordingly boast a higher interest rate, since holders are assuming more risk. The bonds pay 11.5% annually, but reach default after 250 deaths. The bonds' payout rate scales with the number of additional countries that experience than 20 confirmed deaths. The World Bank issued $95 million worth of the Class B assets.

The coronavirus outbreak has so far killed more than 1,370 people and infected more than 60,000, surpassing SARS in lethality earlier this month. Still, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, and Korea are the only nations currently hosting more than 20 infected individuals.

Debate over the bonds' efficacy

While the World Bank touts the debt as an efficient way to connect financial markets with epidemic relief, others have their doubts that the bonds help ailing nations at all. The assets' lengthy prospectus hides numerous requirements that gum up any effort to release funds when they're most needed, according to Olga Jonas, senior fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health and former World Bank economist.

Funds can only be released from the PEF for non-flu epidemics 12 weeks after the "start of the event," according to a World Bank document. The novel coronavirus strains were first reported on in late December, leaving funds locked up until late March.

Even once the deadline is met, the outbreak has to cause at least 20 deaths in two or more countries to trigger the bonds. While China reached the fatality threshold weeks ago, no other nation is close, leaving the PEF frozen while the virus continues to spread.

"The advertising was that there would be early, rapid, predictable, transparent financing available for outbreaks so that they don't become pandemics," Jonas told Business Insider in an interview. "In order for that to happen you have to have early triggers. The triggers in the design are very late."

A "distraction" from "getting serious"

Jonas alleges that the World Bank didn't even need to issue bonds to better prevent pandemics. The former economist called the instruments a "distraction" from "getting serious about supporting preparedness" in developing countries. The $500 million made available through the PEF is a paltry sum compared to the tens of billions of dollars the World Bank holds in liquid assets, she added.

"The money on the table from [the World Bank's International Development Association] didn't need to transit the PEF — and it certainly should not be paying for an unnecessary, inappropriate, and ineffective risk-financing instrument," Jonas said.

She added: "If you were doing this with your own money at home, that'd be grounds for divorce."

Even in the case of the bonds being triggered, Jonas doesn't expect the funds to do much good. The PEF's insurance window covers up to $500 million through its bond and swap issuances, but allocates only as much as $196 million for coronavirus outbreaks.

Once released, 76 countries can apply to receive the pandemic relief funds, watering down the total amount sent to each country. Compared to the $10 billion China is spending on virus control today, the amounts that could be released by the PEF are "trivial," Jonas said.

The bonds would've been useful "if you are not able to finance the risk otherwise," she added. "The World Bank has excellent capacity to finance the risk otherwise."

 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bond-debate-inside-look-world-bank-coronavirus-relief-investment-2020-2-1028906657

 

 

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6 hours ago, Kahuna said:

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be.

 

The thing to learn from China is that, if your power is based on lying to people (both inside and outside your country), and on covering up every problem (regardless of its severity), you will do neither the Chinese people nor the people of the rest of the world any favors. The CCP could have confined the infection to just a relatively few people if they had acted (locked the place down) back in early December (when they realized they had a problem) rather than just sitting on it hoping that nobody would notice as it spread out of control. Instead, they squashed anybody who knew the truth about the situation and allowed people from the infected area to travel freely both inside and outside the country. The actions (and inaction) of the CCP are the biggest contributor to the rapid spread of this infection.

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Kahuna

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 82 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

Quote

Latest Updates

March 4 (GMT):

 1st case in the Faroe Islands: a man who had been at a conference in Paris and returned on Feb. 24. [source]

15 new cases in the Netherlands [source]

5 new cases in San Marino, bringing the total to 15, of which 3 (aged 81, 80, and 76 years old) are in critical condition [source]

2 new cases in Hong Kong: [source]
- a 43-year-old man, who is the “master” of a Buddhist worship hall in North Point, where 16 people were infected previously.
- a 57-year-old female domestic helper of two previously confirmed patients, who lived in southern Hong Kong Island.

28 new cases in Spain, bringing the total to 193 cases, of which 190 active and 3 closed (2 discharges and 1 death). [source]

10 new cases in Belgium, 9 of which returned from a trip to northern Italy and are now isolated at home after developing an upper respiratory infection with a relatively mild flu-like condition. 1 patient, who had not traveled but is a contact of a previous case who had traveled to Venice, developed a more severe respiratory infection and was therefore admitted to the Saint-Pierre hospital in Brussels. [source]
The European Defense Agency (EDA) in Brussels has confirmed that one of its employees has tested positive after returning last week from a trip to Italy, where the official had a meeting with around 30 officials from other EU institutions. EDA has canceled all scheduled meetings at its premises until March 13. [source]

 586 new cases, 15 new deaths, and 117 new recoveries in Iran [source]

 1st case in Poland: a person who came from Germany and is now hospitalized in Zielona Góra (Lubusz Voivodeship) in good condition. All contacts have been placed into home quarantine. 584 tests have been performed in the country. [source]

1 new case in Portugal: a 44-year-old man who came from Italy and is hospitalized at the São João Hospital, in Porto in stable condition. [source]

1 new case in Greece: the husband of the previously confirmed case. [source]

10 new cases in Switzerland [source]

2 new cases in Belarus, briging the total to 6: 4 in Minsk and 2 in the Vitebsk Region. More than 5,000 tests have been carried out [source]

2 new cases in Iceland: a male and a female in their 60s who returned from Verona, Italy through Munich, German. "They have what can be called traditional flu symptoms, not very sick" [source] 4 additional cases [source] are pending official confirmation.

5 new cases in Sweden.  in the Värmland region, the Västra Götaland region and the Skåne region. [source] The risk of an outbreak in Sweden is judged as "moderate." All cases in Sweden are linked to recent travel abroad ('import case') or contact with a confirmed import case. [source] Sweden's Public Health Agency expands its list of regions in Italy where recent travelers are advised to be vigilant about possible symptoms to include Aosta Valley, Liguria, Trentino-Alto Adige, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Tuscany. [source]

2 new cases in Scotland (UK) [source]

3 new cases in Austria [source]

37 new cases in Germany [source]

20 new cases in Japan [source] [source] [source] [source] [source] [source]

14 new cases in Malaysia, all associated with a local cluster linked to case #26. So far, 21 out of the 50 cases have been linked to this cluster: 16 close contacts and 5 secondary contacts. [source]

3 new cases in Israel: one of the patients returned from Italy on Feb. 29 and all three have been quarantined.

4 new cases in the United States (California):
1 in Los Angeles County [source]
2 in Orange County in Southern California: a man in his 60s and a woman in her 30s who had recently traveled to countries that have widespread reports of COVID-19, officials said. [source]
1 in Contra Costa County in Northern California [source] .

21 new cases in India, including a group of 15 Italian tourists [source] [source]

3 new cases in Australia:
- 1 in Victoria [source]
- 1 in South Australia [source]
- 1 in Queensland: a 26-year old man from Logan who had recently traveled to Iran. [source]

119 new cases, 38 new deaths (37 in Hubei) and 2,652 new discharges occurred in China on March 3, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]

435 new cases and 2 deaths in South Korea, including a 86 years old woman who had tested positive on Feb. 26. [source] [source] [source] [source]

3 new cases in Canada (British Columbia) [source]

 

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