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How to stop spread of the COVID-19 Virus

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Headshot
Posted (edited)
On 4/6/2020 at 4:38 PM, JohnSurrey said:

Without wishing to downplay the seriousness of this virus... don't you think between 308 million and 385 million is a little ott?

I guess we won't know until the pandemic is actually over. However, it looks to me like too many people are hoping for a miracle (Don't worry. Almost everyone has already been infected ... or science will save us from dying.). The Spanish Flu pandemic lasted three years and swept the world in waves. We have no idea how long this pandemic will last. There were a lot less people on Earth in 1918, and the Spanish Flu killed between 50 and 100 million people (just like today, they had problems counting).

There are good ways to slow down the virus, and it is even possible to beat the virus (provided you are treated early and properly), but it is unlikely that we will completely stop the virus. Unfortunately, there are still too many people in the world who think that wearing a mask, frequent sanitation measures and social distancing (BTW, that DOESN'T have to mean shutting everything down) are stupid. In addition, a large portion of the world's population lives in places where the healthcare systems are easily overwhelmed. Many countries have taken no precautions at all. For those groups, the infection rate will continue to rise and the CFR will rise even higher.

I hope that you are right. I fear that you are not.

Edited by Headshot

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JohnSurrey
39 minutes ago, Headshot said:

I hope that you are right. I fear that you are not.

I have faith in mankind... and technology has moved on a bit since 1918 and the Spanish Flu :D

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TequilaSunset

I'm shocked...


Much lower and if 60k is correct, less than the flu in 2017 . Stay safe in your places out there.

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lamoe

WWI contributed greatly to the effects of the Spanish Flu. Today it's the ease of air travel and deliberate withholding of data that allowed it to spread.

From August 5, 2014 - no one believed a country would deliberately do this to the world.
 

Quote

 

https://theconversation.com/world-war-ones-role-in-the-worst-ever-flu-pandemic-29849

Conditions have changed in the century since the World War One, making it unlikely the pandemic influenza disaster of 1918-19 will ever be repeated. With the increase in travel and improvements in health care, there are few enclaves where people are not at least partly protected by regular exposure to seasonal influenza or by vaccination.

Even if a nasty new flu virus were to emerge again, there will be fewer susceptible people to facilitate its spread and its evolution into an aggressive pandemic virus. What’s more, we now have medicines to help prevent its spread and to better treat the complications of severe infections.

 

 

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JohnSurrey
On 4/8/2020 at 11:48 AM, JohnSurrey said:

I have faith in mankind... and technology has moved on a bit since 1918 and the Spanish Flu :D

 

Quote

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52246319

Apple and Google are jointly developing technology to alert people if they have recently
come into contact with others found to be infected with coronavirus.

They hope to initially help third-party contact-tracing apps run efficiently.

But ultimately, they aim to do away with the need to download dedicated apps, to encourage the practice.

The two companies believe their approach - designed to keep users, whose participation would be voluntary, anonymous - addresses privacy concerns.

Their contact-tracing method would work by using a smartphone's Bluetooth signals to determine to whom the owner had recently been in proximity for long enough to have established contagion a risk.

If one of those people later tested positive for the Covid-19 virus, a warning would be sent to the original handset owner.

No GPS location data or personal information would be recorded.

"Privacy, transparency and consent are of utmost importance in this effort and we look forward to building this functionality in consultation with interested stakeholders," Apple and Google said in a joint statement.

"We will openly publish information about our work for others to analyse."

President Trump said his administration needed time to consider the development.

"It's very interesting, but a lot of people worry about it in terms of a person's freedom," he said during a White House press conference.

"We're going to take... a very strong long at it, and we'll let you know pretty soon."

The European Union's Data Protection Supervisor sounded more positive, saying: "The initiative will require further assessment, however, after a quick look it seems to tick the right boxes as regards user choice, data protection by design and pan-European interoperability."

But others have noted that the success of the venture may depend on getting enough people tested.

_111752144_bbc-apple1-nc.png

Apple is the developer of iOS. Google is the company behind Android. The two operating systems power the vast majority of smartphones in use.

Some countries - including Singapore, Israel, South Korea and Poland - are already using people's handsets to issue coronavirus contagion alerts.

Other health authorities - including the UK, France and Germany - are working on initiatives of their own. And some municipal governments in the US are reportedly about to adopt a third-party app.

The two technology giants aim to bring coherence to all this by allowing existing third-party apps to be retrofitted to include their solution.

This would make the apps interoperable, so contact tracing would continue to work as people travelled overseas and came into contact with people using a different tool.

Apple and Google have been working on the effort for about two weeks but have not externally revealed their plans until Friday.

If successful, the scheme could help countries relax lockdowns and border restrictions.

Phone-based matches

The companies aim to release a software building-block - known as an API (application programming interface) - by mid-May.

This would allow others' apps to run on the same basis.

_111752146_bbc-apple2-nc.png

Records of the digital IDs involved would be stored on remote computer servers but the companies say these could not be used to unmask a specific individual's true identity.

Furthermore, the contact-matching process would take place on the phones rather than centrally.

This would make it possible for someone to be told they should go into quarantine, without anyone else being notified.

 

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Davaoeno

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366

Coronavirus symptoms: What are they and how do I protect myself?

By James Gallagher Health and science correspondent

14 April 2020

_111195673_corona_whatyouneedtodo_without_title-nc.png

Coronavirus has claimed more than 156,000 lives and infected nearly 2.3 million people around the world.

Among them is UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is now recuperating after being treated in hospital for Covid-19.

What are the coronavirus symptoms?

Coronavirus infects the lungs. The two main symptoms are a fever or a dry cough, which can sometimes lead to breathing problems.

The cough to look out for is a new, continuous cough. This means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or having three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours. If you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual.

You have a fever if your temperature is above 37.8C. This can make you feel warm, cold or shivery.

A sore throat, headache and diarrhoea have also been reported and a loss of smell and taste may also be a symptom.

It takes five days on average to start showing the symptoms, but some people will get them much later. The World Health Organization (WHO) says the incubation period lasts up to 14 days.

 

When do people need to go to hospital?
The majority of people with coronavirus will recover after rest and pain relief (such as paracetamol).

The main reason people need hospital treatment is difficulty breathing.

Doctors may scan the lungs to see how badly they are affected and give support, such as oxygen or ventilation, if needed.

However, people should not go to A&E if they are concerned. In the UK, the NHS 111 website will guide you through what to do.

If you are so breathless that you are unable to speak more than a few words you will be told to call 999, as this is a medical emergency.

If you become so ill that you've stopped doing all of your usual daily activities then it will advise speaking to a nurse by dialling NHS 111.

What happens in intensive care?
Intensive care units (ICUs) are specialist wards for people who are very ill.

Coronavirus patients will get oxygen support, which can involve using a facemask, or a tube in the nose.

The most invasive way - for the most seriously ill patients - is ventilation where air, with increased levels of oxygen, is pushed into the lungs via a tube in the mouth, nose or through a small cut in the throat.

_111224912_coronavirus_key_symptoms_uk_640-nc.png

What should I do if I have mild symptoms?

Patients with mild symptoms should self-isolate at home for at least seven days.

People are advised not to ring NHS 111 to report their symptoms unless they are worried. They should also not go to their GP, or A&E.

Details for Scotland are to check NHS inform, then ring your GP in office hours, or 111 out-of-hours. In Wales call NHS 111, and in Northern Ireland, call your GP.

If you have come into contact with somebody who may be infected, you may be told to self-isolate.

The World Health Organization has also issued advice for the public.

_111449295_temperature_checkv2_640-nc.png

How deadly is coronavirus?

The proportion dying from the disease appears low (between 1% and 2%) - but the figures are unreliable.

Thousands are being treated but may go on to die - so the death rate could be higher. But it may also be lower if lots of mild cases are unreported.

A World Health Organization (WHO) examination of data from 56,000 patients suggests:

  • 6% become critically ill - lung failure, septic shock, organ failure and risk of death
  • 14% develop severe symptoms - difficulty breathing and shortness of breath
  • 80% develop mild symptoms - fever and cough and some may have pneumonia

_111095519_deaths_in_china_v2_x2_640-nc.png

Older people, and those with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure), are more likely to become severely ill. Men are at slightly higher risk of dying from the virus than women.

Work to develop a vaccine is under way.

What do I need to know about the coronavirus?

How do I protect myself?

The best thing is regular and thorough hand washing, preferably with soap and water.

Coronavirus spreads when an infected person coughs or sneezes small droplets - packed with the virus - into the air. These can be breathed in, or cause an infection if you touch a surface they have landed on, then your eyes, nose or mouth.

So, coughing and sneezing into tissues, not touching your face with unwashed hands, and avoiding close contact with infected people are important.

People will be most infectious when they have symptoms, but some may spread the virus even before they are sick.

Face masks do not provide effective protection, according to medical experts. However, the WHO is re-examining whether the public might benefit from using them.

_111093879_cough_etiquette_640_3x-nc.png

 

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mikewright

Australia has now extended coronavirus testing to anyone with any of those symptoms. It will be interesting to see it this results in a lot more positive cases but with mild symptoms being found.

Quote

A lot more of us can now get tested for coronavirus. Here's what you need to know

"In particular, National Cabinet was informed today that every state and territory has now broadened their testing criteria from today," he said.

"So that anybody with acute respiratory symptoms, cough, sore throat, runny nose, cold symptoms, flu-like symptoms, can get tested."

So there you go. If you have cold symptoms, you can get the test.

This is pretty big news.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/coronavirus-should-i-get-tested-for-covid19/12181508

 

 

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smokey

Is this is a natrual virus how do people get it twice and its pasted to dogs and cats and just born babies even if the mother is negative

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mikewright
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, smokey said:

Is this is a natrual virus how do people get it twice and its pasted to dogs and cats and just born babies even if the mother is negative

Possible because it is a new virus, a novel coronavirus, with different qualities to previous varieties?

Edited by mikewright
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Headshot
1 hour ago, smokey said:

Is this is a natural virus how do people get it twice and its pasted to dogs and cats and just born babies even if the mother is negative

There are three major strains of this virus (with about thirty minor mutations from those strains). If it is like the Dengue Fever virus. then being infected by one strain not only doesn't give you immunity to the other strains, it actually makes you more susceptible. They don't really know enough about the virus to know for sure how it works, let alone how many times you can be infected. They seem to be learning more about the virus every day. Maybe they will know all about it by the time it runs its course.

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Cgu

I think more and more to come out of this lock down, which is driven by hospitaliztion and death rate, and follow a different strategy is really looking at the data and look at the risk group. Some countries are looking exactly at that, if you look at the data 80% and more of death rates and hospitalization is driven by the age group 60 and above. Anyway it is predicted that nearly everybody gets infected sooner or later, so it is rezlly only about the health care system and death.

So the lock down or better imposed isolation should be only for this age group. For 59 and below the risk is even lower than the flu and by far. With this rule in place you can go back to "normal" with the age group 59 and below. For 60 and above have to wait until medicine or vaccine are on the market.  

This would help not only the health system, but also all the whole economy like airlines, tourism etc, Everything will be up to speed, of course at a reduced rate, but better than now.

Hopefully, some countries will implement this soon.

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