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Various Viruses Deaths in the Philippines

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user333

The DOH tracker shows 111 coronavirus cases were confirmed in the first 3 months of 2020 with 8 deaths.

Previous years show that this is similar to other viruses. 

https://www.doh.gov.ph/sites/default/files/statistics/2019 Influenza SARI Monthly Surveillance Report No. 6.pdf

68,091 influenza cases were confirmed in the first 6 months of 2019 with 8 deaths

592 SARS-like cases were confirmed in the first 6 months of 2019 with 34 deaths

 

67,281 influenza cases were confirmed in the first 6 months of 2018 with 11 deaths

709 SARS-like cases were confirmed in the first 6 months of 2018 with 19 deaths

 

Respiratory diseases aren't killing massive amounts in the Philippines, according to this data.  

I'd be more worried about the roads. 11,264 deaths from accidents on Philippine roads.

https://www.carmudi.com.ph/journal/philippines-90-motorcycle-deaths-didnt-wear-helmets/

 

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Dafey
3 hours ago, user333 said:

The DOH tracker shows 111 coronavirus cases were confirmed in the first 3 months of 2020 with 8 deaths.

Previous years show that this is similar to other viruses. 

Other viruses are not as aggressive and viscious as the Covid19 virus. If left to itself without quarantine the virus would spread in a geometric progression which could easily take out 60%-80% of the population. 

The elderly, (not necessarily the feeble), are most vulnerable to this infection and can lose 20%-30% of their lung capacity if they survive.

This is a serious killer and the lockdowns and travel bans that are in effect around the world, if anything, should have been done earlier. 

 

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user333

The global confirmed cases are 156,241 with deaths being 5,833. That's a 3.7% death rate. How did you come up with a 60-80% mortality rate? 

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SkyMan
4 hours ago, Dafey said:

This is a serious killer and the lockdowns and travel bans that are in effect around the world, if anything, should have been done earlier. 

It's a tough call really and I don't envy anyone that has to make it.  You can't just shutdown any time someone sneezes or everyone will scream you're overreacting.  If you wait until there is significant proof the screams will be that you took too long.  One thing for certain though, making the lockdown decision and not making it effective immediately was a big mistake.

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user333

Yes, this is exactly the same situation with SARS in 2003. China sat on the information for 2-3 months and didn't tell the WHO or any other health organization to save face. Once it was out, it was too late. China eventually apologized but did not learn from that situation as evidenced with this new virus. 

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Dafey
2 hours ago, user333 said:

How did you come up with a 60-80% mortality rate? 

If the virus is allowed to spread unchecked

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Cgu
6 hours ago, user333 said:

The global confirmed cases are 156,241 with deaths being 5,833. That's a 3.7% death rate. How did you come up with a 60-80% mortality rate? 

The mortality rate is much lower ( it is the rate of the total population to deaths). However, the Case Fatality Rate or CFR is around 7%. You cannot take the 156k, as that is the number of all infected, even the resolved. From the closed cases (around 80k) you can calculate the CFR, since you are recovered or dead. I watched this number the last 2 week and it stayed at 7%. 

Currently there are 75k infected people, the other or recovered or dead.

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JohnSurrey

I'm sure the CFR will be a lot higher here in RP than it is in other countries and affect a much wider age group because they don't have a Health Care system equipped to cope with basic respiratory illnesses - especially in the provinces.

Will it be any better in Cebu or Manila ?

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JohnSurrey
1 hour ago, JohnSurrey said:

I'm sure the CFR will be a lot higher here in RP than it is in other countries and affect a much wider age group because they don't have a Health Care system equipped to cope with basic respiratory illnesses - especially in the provinces.

Will it be any better in Cebu or Manila ?

Doesn't look like it given the position in the UK:

He confirmed the NHS (UK National Health System) did not have enough ventilator machines to treat the numbers of people likely to become critically ill with the virus and said the government was urging a wartime-like response from manufacturers to produce them.

BBC: Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'

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user333
4 hours ago, JohnSurrey said:

I'm sure the CFR will be a lot higher here in RP than it is in other countries and affect a much wider age group because they don't have a Health Care system equipped to cope with basic respiratory illnesses - especially in the provinces.

Will it be any better in Cebu or Manila ?

Well, what's your opinion on what it will be and let's compare it to some facts. If you look at that first link by the Philippines Department of Health, it lists severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the past and the mortality rate isn't that large. 3-7 %. I looked at 2017, 2018, and 2019. This coronavirus also affects the lungs, and it is not the first respiratory illness to land on the Pearl of the Orient Seas. Is it too late now to say SARI?

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JohnSurrey

Firstly, what I'd like from the DOH is a simple table

image.png.551b4f608c6454ff7aa94d265156b9c8.png

With the ability to click on a Region and see the same figures broken down by City.

Instead we now have:

image.thumb.png.743f898eb28c04dde70562dceca8769c.png

Very pretty but not very helpful if you want to see where the new cases are and where the new deaths are etc.

Anyway - My humble opinion was based on an a) an article I read that said one of the most critical pieces of equipment needed to fight the virus was the ventilator and b) the fact I live in a typical small Filipino "City" that has two hospitals that both possess an X-Ray machine - probably a computer and an electronic calculator but nothing as sophisticated (?) as a ventilator and c) the suspicion that shortly most of us will be restricted from travelling from one city to another here...

So quite simple to deduce if I (or any of my neighbors here) get the virus we're basically on our own.

 

However you don't have to take my word for it as five minutes after I wrote that I read on the BBC News website 

Plea for ventilators

The health service is to stop non-urgent surgery and implement a huge training programme to retrain medics from other specialisms to treat those who become seriously ill with the Covid-19 disease.

"We will stop at nothing to fight this virus and I think people have got the impression otherwise," Mr Hancock said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to hold a conference call with industry leaders later to discuss the need to help produce medical equipment "at speed", Mr Hancock said.

 

 

So if the UK National Health service doesn't have enough ventilators I'm pretty sure they don't have enough in RP.

Perhaps RP can make more ventilators or import some from China and train up the local medical staff here how to use the equipment and treat the seriously ill...

 

Having said all that - I'm happy to concede I could be wrong on this: because the RP has a younger population, the median age here is about 24 whereas in the UK it is  nearer 40, it's likely there won't be the demand for ventilators (from the younger Filipinos) here that there will be in places like the UK but what we'll probably see here is fewer people recovering.

 

 

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Headshot
21 hours ago, user333 said:

Well, what's your opinion on what it will be and let's compare it to some facts.

It is likely that the Wuhan Coronavirus will overwhelm almost every national medical system in the world. When medical systems get overwhelmed, more people die (because there are no ICU beds, oxygen or ventilators left in the hospitals). Governments around the world are jumping on the NIMBY bandwagon, saying that their healthcare system will be OK. Somehow, considering how most countries haven't really taken any action until the virus is already out of control within their borders, I suspect that healthcare will eventually falter in just about every country, including the US, UK and, obviously, pretty much every other country in the world. Healthcare systems have only started to collapse in a few countries, so most "experts" around the world are still not seeing the reality of this situation.

South Korea is about the only country that jumped right in with proactive measures (and they almost had it under control but now are struggling again). It doesn't help that this virus can spread using asymptomatic infected people as vectors. Every other country allowed the virus to take control before they did anything. China tells the world that they have defeated the virus, but in reality they are still covering up infections and deaths within their borders in an effort to keep their economy from totally collapsing (which is about the only thing that could bring the CCP down). Anybody who tries to get information out of the country is locked away and disappeared.

Therefore, I will guess that the CFR for the whole world will be between 4% and 5% of those infected (which will likely be about 80% of the population). I doubt that the CFR in third-world countries like the Philippines will be lower than the world average. BTW, if 4 to 5% die, that will mean 240 to 300 million deaths worldwide and 3.3 to 4.2 million deaths in the Philippines. Is everybody ready? I suspect that some LinC Forums members will fall to this virus, considering the average member age and comorbidities a lot of us have.

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fred42

How many have caught the virus due to it spreading here in the Philippines and then since died from it?

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Headshot
1 hour ago, fred42 said:

How many have caught the virus due to it spreading here in the Philippines and then since died from it?

No telling, but I was told today by a guy who is here in Cebu training ERUF medics that there are at least 34 cases under investigation just in Liloan right now. There aren't tests for all of those cases because Philippine policy for testing is that the patient must already be in critical condition to get tested (a little bit late at that point). Some tests have been done, but they must be sent to Manila for evaluation. I suspect that, just like in China, people who die from lung infections who don't get tested and don't die in a hospital after getting tested won't get counted.

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Salty Dog
8 minutes ago, Headshot said:

There aren't tests for all of those cases because Philippine policy for testing is that the patient must already be in critical condition to get tested (a little bit late at that point).

Since they are short on available tests, they have to allocate them somehow. 

What is your suggestion other than to say get more test, which seems to be the talking heads solution in most parts of the world. Just saying you need more test, doesn't make more test suddenly appear. Oh if the world only worked that way...:rolleyes:

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Kreole
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Headshot said:

It is likely that the Wuhan Coronavirus will overwhelm almost every national medical system in the world. When medical systems get overwhelmed, more people die (because there are no ICU beds, oxygen or ventilators left in the hospitals). Governments around the world are jumping on the NIMBY bandwagon, saying that their healthcare system will be OK. Somehow, considering how most countries haven't really taken any action until the virus is already out of control within their borders, I suspect that healthcare will eventually falter in just about every country, including the US, UK and, obviously, pretty much every other country in the world. Healthcare systems have only started to collapse in a few countries, so most "experts" around the world are still not seeing the reality of this situation.

South Korea is about the only country that jumped right in with proactive measures (and they almost had it under control but now are struggling again). It doesn't help that this virus can spread using asymptomatic infected people as vectors. Every other country allowed the virus to take control before they did anything. China tells the world that they have defeated the virus, but in reality they are still covering up infections and deaths within their borders in an effort to keep their economy from totally collapsing (which is about the only thing that could bring the CCP down). Anybody who tries to get information out of the country is locked away and disappeared.

Therefore, I will guess that the CFR for the whole world will be between 4% and 5% of those infected (which will likely be about 80% of the population). I doubt that the CFR in third-world countries like the Philippines will be lower than the world average. BTW, if 4 to 5% die, that will mean 240 to 300 million deaths worldwide and 3.3 to 4.2 million deaths in the Philippines. Is everybody ready? I suspect that some LinC Forums members will fall to this virus, considering the average member age and comorbidities a lot of us have.

  At 72, I am in the at risk category not so much because of my age but because I have asthma and allergies which create daily respiratory challenges, so I have about as much experience as anyone concerning how to mitigate the symptoms by the use of certain medications such as dextromethorphan (anti-cough) guaifenisen to loosen the mucus in the lungs and helps to cough it up (expectorate).  In addition, salbutamol inhalers help clear the lungs, thus I imagine the very same medical prodocols I use  when having asthma attack will be the same line of defence  should I get the corona virus, so I am not particularly concerned.

Edited by Kreole
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Headshot

Nobody expects to be a coronavirus casualty, but some of us will be. I think the thought that we can beat anything is a holdover from when we were young and stupid. Unfortunately, when we are old, our body can't fight back as well as it once could. Do I think I will die from the Wuhan Coronavirus? I certainly hope not, but it is human nature to think catastrophes will only happen to other people until it is impossible for us to avoid them. I have done as much as I can to defend my health and have treatment available if the need arises, but there are no guarantees in life.

I remember back in the 1950s, there used to be tests every night for the Emergency Broadcast System. It said, "This is a test. It is only a test. If this was a real emergency, you would be given further instructions." I liken that to life. This life is a test. It is only a test. If this was a real life, you would have been given further instructions. All we can do is live our lives to the best of our abilities and do everything we can to protect that life (and the lives of loved ones). Beyond that, it is out of our hands.

Governments of the world had over a hundred years since the last deadly pandemic (the Spanish Flu) to prepare for the next inevitable major pandemic. Everybody knew it was coming, but nobody knew when or what it would be. So, governments procrastinated on their preparations until it was too late (just like people tend to do), and they were left woefully unprepared with no time to catch up and face the disease. Overall, mankind is smart, but for some reason, we never learn the lessons that history has taught about recurring plagues that periodically sweep the Earth. Governments tend to deny there is a problem until it is too late to do anything. As a result, our healthcare systems will be overwhelmed, and many people around the world will die because of it.

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Dafey
28 minutes ago, Headshot said:

Everybody knew it was coming, but nobody knew when or what it would be

But Governments and those with money refused to spend that money towards helping mankind. 

Greed is a terrible thing

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Headshot
1 minute ago, Dafey said:

But Governments and those with money refused to spend that money towards helping mankind. 

Greed is a terrible thing

True, but greed is a human thing. And, I'm not entirely sure it was greed that caused a lack of preparedness. It is more likely that "future probabilities" just never got high enough on the priority list to be acted on.

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Dafey

Governments act on the greed of those in power. Doesn’t matter if it’s a monarchy, democracy or communist. Those in power act in the interests of their own...sometimes disguised as compassion. IMHO

‘No need to spend money on a pandemic now and prepare, there will be plenty of time to act when it is discovered’


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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InternetTough

I might already have had it. On March 2 it hit suddenly and I had lots of fever and headaches, plus weakness. Later, there was coughing. 

I missed a fair bit of work and am now on the mend. Since I never got tested, I don't think I will ever know if it was the Wuhan Virus Center Virus, or maybe it should be called the Wuhan Wet Market Virus.

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user333

That is a good point. How would you know if you had this virus unless tested? If you weren't tested, you may guess it's the flu or SARS. Pneumonia could then follow which could result in death. 

56,815 pneumonia deaths occurred in the Philippines in 2018. It was the 4th leading cause of death after heart disease, cancer, and blood vessel/blood flow issues.   

46.923 other respiratory deaths also occurred. 

(page 10) https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/attachments/crd/specialrelease/SR 2018 Deaths_0.pdf

If someone died this year and they had trouble breathing, the doctor may record it as one of these deaths and not as a coronavirus death. 

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Headshot
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, user333 said:

That is a good point. How would you know if you had this virus unless tested? If you weren't tested, you may guess it's the flu or SARS. Pneumonia could then follow which could result in death.

You can have a blood test, and they can do a serum test to detect the virus antibodies. Even if you no longer have the virus, they can still tell if you ever did. There is more than one way to skin this cat.

4 hours ago, user333 said:

56,815 pneumonia deaths occurred in the Philippines in 2018. It was the 4th leading cause of death after heart disease, cancer, and blood vessel/blood flow issues.   

46.923 other respiratory deaths also occurred.

So you are saying that there were about 104k deaths from respiratory diseases in the Philippines in 2018 even without the Wuhan Coronavirus being around. BTW, my wife showed me something a bit ago that there are over 100 cases under investigation in Mandaue City, and there is at least one case in the ICU at Chong Hua Mandaue Hospital right now.

Edited by Headshot
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user333
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Headshot said:

So you are saying that there were about 104k deaths from respiratory diseases in the Philippines in 2018 even without the Wuhan Coronavirus being around. 

That's what page 10 states. https://psa.gov.ph/content/registered-deaths-philippines-2018 (the pdf is the bottom of this page and is called "SR 2018 Deaths.pdf". There are spaces in the first hyperlink I posted and it for some reason, the first URL won't open)

Pneumonia is usually caused by a virus or bacterial infection. Viruses can also cause kidney failure and septic shock. So far, this new virus strain has a long way to go to match the kills that its cousins are achieving.  

The previous years are here (https://psa.gov.ph/vital-statistics/registered-deaths-philippines-2017):

disease.thumb.png.8ac771e04b04c097f0acbce85f94b8e0.png

Edited by user333
webpage fix

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