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TheMatrix

U.S. financial markets are greatly downplaying Coronavirus risk

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TheMatrix

For what it's worth, the U.S. financial markets are greatly downplaying this risk.  Futures markets going straight up.  

Traders are reacting on two positive reports:

1.  632 patients in China sent home from the hospital that had the virus due to successful treatment!
2.  The fatality rate for this virus is lower than it was for SARS.
 

The markets are always right!  Caught me with my pants down in the overnight session.  I've been reading too much negative news, ie Zerohedge and this forum.  

  

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Kahuna
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As the Wuhan coronavirus spread worsens, the financial markets are throwing one hell of party, hitting record highs. Yet the world's #2 economy, China, just hung up a big "CLOSED" sign -- stocks should be tanking hard here. How can they shrug off the virus' threat to global trade? Chris believes that government intervention is at play here. There are few things that send the soothing signal that "All is well" more than higher stock prices do. As politicians say: "When it gets serious, you have to lie". Folks, it looks like the coronavirus is so serious that governments are in full panic-suppression mode. It's becoming harder and harder to trust the official guidance being issued -- we need to educate ourselves as best we can. Meanwhile, the new data we are gathering suggest the virus continues to be more contagious than previously expected...

 

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savarity

Markets are usually biased towards positive news, and the people involved are optimistic at their core. Otherwise, they wouldn't be involved and buying. Most don't want to stand on the sidelines.

I keep that short seller saying in mind; "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

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rfm010

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-surge-on-reports-about-coronavirus-treatment-2020-02-05?mod=home-page

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U.S. stock futures rose sharply and oil prices also saw strong gains early Wednesday on reports about scientific progress toward a coronavirus cure. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +0.83% climbed 218 points, or 0.8%, to 29,004, while S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.78% gained 22.75 points, or 0.7%, to 3,322. Nasdaq-100 futures NQ00, +0.95% jumped 76 points, or 0.9%, to 9,435.75. Crude-oil futures CL00, +2.26% surged 2.8% to $50.97 a barrel. China Global Television Network, citing a report from China's Changjiang daily, said researchers at Zhejiang University had zeroed in on two drugs to successfully fight the coronavirus. Separately, Sky News reported progress in the U.K. on creating a vaccine. The death toll from the new virus rose to 490 in mainland China and the number of new cases increased to 24,324. Wall Street stocks rallied on Tuesday, in part due to actions by Beijing to help combat the virus.

 

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Cgu

Same as usual. Big banks and investors will make their money in a crisis and if it fails....well the taxpayer will bail them out and secure their bonus, as usual...any goverment will ensure this. Changing this will mean changing the law and as it happened last time the banks know how DC works, just lobby and no law will be passed, or will be undone. Thank you taxpayers!

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profits101

...this is a call from BofA on a couple of Macau gaming plays, and they spin positive. That's how Wall Street is playing it for now... nothing to see here, move on. 

1515843327_ScreenShot2020-02-12at7_30_21PM.thumb.png.254cf6bd60f27dab7e9ca20f9085f273.png

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HongKongPhooey
46 minutes ago, profits101 said:

this is a call from BofA on a couple of Macau gaming plays, and they spin positive. That's how Wall Street is playing it for now... nothing to see here, move on. 

At least this more accurately aligns BofA to a gambling institution, since they are not really Investors.  Of course, don’t mind the small print at the bottom of the page: 

“BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.“

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profits101

in the interests of non-science, and in trying to understand what is going on with this virus, I think the financial markets offer some insight. Right now I would say this:  If the worst of the virus is behind us, then Brent should trade 55 to 60$ with Libya outage lasting at least into March and an additional OPEC cut. The market is short. Oil says this virus is not done.

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TheMatrix
2 hours ago, profits101 said:

in the interests of non-science, and in trying to understand what is going on with this virus, I think the financial markets offer some insight. Right now I would say this:  If the worst of the virus is behind us, then Brent should trade 55 to 60$ with Libya outage lasting at least into March and an additional OPEC cut. The market is short. Oil says this virus is not done.

Absolutely!

Equity futures markets made new highs again today!  There is ZERO virus concern in the market.

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TheMatrix
3 hours ago, profits101 said:

in the interests of non-science, and in trying to understand what is going on with this virus, I think the financial markets offer some insight. Right now I would say this:  If the worst of the virus is behind us, then Brent should trade 55 to 60$ with Libya outage lasting at least into March and an additional OPEC cut. The market is short. Oil says this virus is not done.

Many people are not aware that financial markets are very accurate in narrating future and current events, whether science based, political, natural or man-made, and especially existential type threats.   

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profits101

New Cases, New Deaths, and Oil as of today:

1518674352_2020-02-12(2).png.0cce34942b7ab3953a827e8010cd3b83.png709807438_2020-02-12(1).png.c0455c8f2cb077e4ed2d8cbf93abcc5c.png

 

2020-02-12 (1).jpg

Edited by profits101

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rfm010

Early nasdaq futures down 1% cuz of that new data release.  Bummer.  I have 2 sales to make today ahead of pdufa dates and i can see my profits being crunched by the general market.  Seems every year the chinese have something screwy going on that costs me money.

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