BossHog 38,555 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 (edited) https://westernpacificweather.com/2019/12/18/two-tropical-areas-to-watch-near-the-philippines/ He says it better than I can... "Two invest areas are located east of the Philippines today and both show the potential to bring an increase in rain across the central and southern Philippines. At this time nothing points towards a full on typhoon but a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible. First a tropical depression I feel is likely based on my analysis near Mindanao and Visayas this weekend. (Be sure to check PAGASA for official forecast) Meanwhile by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week another Invest (98W) could develop and impact the Philippines. Ensemble models show low confidence on exactly where this could take place but there is confidence of at least a tropical depression from Southern Luzon to more likely Mindanao or Visayas. Of course at this time the areas are still invest and have no official warnings on them. This simply means the forecast is highly uncertain at this time especially since there is no low level circulation for the numerical guidance to jump on." Edited December 24, 2019 by BossHog 2 3 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 Well 97W has dissipated but 98W has consolidated some and it appears it will be visiting d'Phils come Christmas Day.... 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Woolf 8,550 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 (edited) Yes looks like Christmas morning could be pretty wet here https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2019-12-24-21,10.057,124.960,8,m:dWcajBu Edited December 21, 2019 by Woolf Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 (edited) https://weatherph.org/tropical_cyclone/2019_lpa_98w_stormwatch_no_01/ The storm will be named "Ursula" http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/tropical-cyclone-advisory Edited December 21, 2019 by BossHog 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 (edited) First warning from the JTWC is just out. They're calling for a typhoon strength storm at landfall. 64 knots is the threshold for a Cat 1 and this is projected to arrive at 65 knots. This is stronger than the earlier calls by other agencies for a tropical storm. Edited December 21, 2019 by BossHog 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Administrator +Dafey 15,260 Posted December 21, 2019 Administrator Share Posted December 21, 2019 4 hours ago, BossHog said: 64 knots is the threshold for a Cat 1 and this is projected to arrive at 65 knots Defenitely need to be ready for this. I suggest we send our intrepid Storm Chaser, Geotz, out to report as this approaches shore! For everyone's knowledge: 1 Knot = 1.15 MPH 65 Knots = 74.8 MPH 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites
shadow 18,483 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, Dafey said: Defenitely need to be ready for this. I suggest we send our intrepid Storm Chaser, Geotz, out to report as this approaches shore! For everyone's knowledge: 1 Knot = 1.15 MPH 65 Knots = 74.8 MPH Do you think he could scare it away with his Arnis sticks? 1 4 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) Well, this has Cebu City directly in the cross hairs early on Christmas morning. 120-150 kph. Kindly consider yourselves advised. ps. @Dafey will convert to mph or knots if you ask nice and give him a glass of eggnog. Edited December 22, 2019 by BossHog 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Headshot 29,357 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Oh goodie. My daughter was asking what a typhoon was like (she was too little to remember Yolanda). I suspect she is about to find out what a typhoon is all about (if this storm follows the predicted path). The Christmas Typhoon of 2019. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Headshot said: I suspect she is about to find out what a typhoon is all about If you're a shopping procrastinator (i.e. male) you can always tell her that Santa and his reindeer couldn't make it this year due to the weather. That's my plan! If the track continues to drop even a hair south, we're going to catch the landfall here on Siargao come Tuesday afternoon. Worth noting that JMA (the Japs) who are the official agency for this region are sticking to a slightly more northern track for the moment. Edited December 22, 2019 by BossHog 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, Dafey said: Defenitely need to be ready for this. For everyone's knowledge: 1 Knot = 1.15 MPH JTWC in warning #3 strengthens this further from 65 to 75 knots and is in very close agreement with JMA on the track. Pagasa is the one calling for a slightly more southern route. 75 knots=86 mph=139 kph Edited December 22, 2019 by BossHog 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Woolf 8,550 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) tracks forecast, pretty much in agreement https://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/log.php?name=PHANFONE_2019 Edited December 22, 2019 by Woolf 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,555 Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 4 Link to post Share on other sites
Jawny 4,617 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Thanks for the forecasting. Today we’re digging out the window covers (plywood) and expect to install them tomorrow during the early day. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Headshot 29,357 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 It is likely that ferries will not run anywhere in the Visayas from Christmas Eve through Boxing Day, so anybody who needs to get someplace should do it now rather than waiting. 4 Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now