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Typhoon Phanfone - Ursula (18 Dec 2019)


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BossHog

https://westernpacificweather.com/2019/12/18/two-tropical-areas-to-watch-near-the-philippines/

He says it better than I can...

"Two invest areas are located east of the Philippines today and both show the potential to bring an increase in rain across the central and southern Philippines. At this time nothing points towards a full on typhoon but a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible. First a tropical depression I feel is likely based on my analysis near Mindanao and Visayas this weekend. (Be sure to check PAGASA for official forecast) Meanwhile by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week another Invest (98W) could develop and impact the Philippines. Ensemble models show low confidence on exactly where this could take place but there is confidence of at least a tropical depression from Southern Luzon to more likely Mindanao or Visayas. Of course at this time the areas are still invest and have no official warnings on them. This simply means the forecast is highly uncertain at this time especially since there is no low level circulation for the numerical guidance to jump on."

 

Edited by BossHog
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https://westernpacificweather.com/2019/12/18/two-tropical-areas-to-watch-near-the-philippines/ He says it better than I can... "Two invest areas are located east of the Philippines today and

We have just had some good news - everyone is accounted for and ok The village didnt fare too well though The first pic is whats left of the pier at Astorga, and pics two and three are whats

Do you think he could scare it away with his Arnis sticks?

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BossHog

Well 97W has dissipated but 98W has consolidated some and it appears it will be visiting d'Phils come Christmas Day....

98W_gefs_latest.thumb.png.18a888dafc190577f2ea22d5ea3249d4.png

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BossHog

First warning from the JTWC is just out. They're calling for a  typhoon strength storm at landfall. 64 knots is the threshold for a Cat 1 and this is projected to arrive at 65 knots. This is stronger than the earlier calls by other agencies for a tropical storm.

jt.thumb.gif.a15d79bba7b169d824d7eb9adcb93f9b.gif

 

Edited by BossHog
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Dafey
4 hours ago, BossHog said:

64 knots is the threshold for a Cat 1 and this is projected to arrive at 65 knots

Defenitely need to be ready for this. I suggest we send our intrepid Storm Chaser, Geotz, out to report as this approaches shore!

For everyone's knowledge:

1 Knot = 1.15 MPH

65 Knots = 74.8 MPH

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shadow
21 minutes ago, Dafey said:

Defenitely need to be ready for this. I suggest we send our intrepid Storm Chaser, Geotz, out to report as this approaches shore!

For everyone's knowledge:

1 Knot = 1.15 MPH

65 Knots = 74.8 MPH

Do you think he could scare it away with his Arnis sticks?

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BossHog

Well, this has Cebu City directly in the cross hairs early on Christmas morning. 120-150 kph. Kindly consider yourselves advised.

ps. @Dafey will convert to mph or knots if you ask nice and give him a glass of eggnog.

1639192222_Ursula2119-Zoom(1).thumb.png.37831e432c16242bb317b795dac1d66c.png

 

Edited by BossHog
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Headshot

Oh goodie. My daughter was asking what a typhoon was like (she was too little to remember Yolanda). I suspect she is about to find out what a typhoon is all about (if this storm follows the predicted path). The Christmas Typhoon of 2019.

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BossHog
13 minutes ago, Headshot said:

I suspect she is about to find out what a typhoon is all about

If you're a shopping procrastinator (i.e. male) you can always tell her that Santa and his reindeer couldn't make it this year due to the weather. That's my plan!

If the track continues to drop even a hair south, we're going to catch the landfall here on Siargao come Tuesday afternoon.

Worth noting that JMA (the Japs) who are the official agency for this region are sticking to a slightly more northern track for the moment.

M3Jv8bZ.thumb.png.a1a0160555f15423a71a3c9ffdb1d8c1.png

 

Edited by BossHog
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BossHog

 

10 hours ago, Dafey said:

Defenitely need to be ready for this. 

For everyone's knowledge:

1 Knot = 1.15 MPH

JTWC in warning #3 strengthens this further from 65 to 75 knots and is in very close agreement with JMA on the track. Pagasa is the one calling for a slightly more southern route. 

75 knots=86 mph=139 kph

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se2_b13_0940.thumb.jpg.da9d0d406e939789fa36396c24e65517.jpg

Edited by BossHog
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Thanks for the forecasting.  Today we’re digging out the window covers (plywood) and expect to install them tomorrow during the early day.  

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Headshot

It is likely that ferries will not run anywhere in the Visayas from Christmas Eve through Boxing Day, so anybody who needs to get someplace should do it now rather than waiting.

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