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MickyG

First typhoon of the 2019 season?

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MickyG

Forming  south east of Davao tracking north to land in NE Luzon

 

Tricky monster could just disappear or change direction at anytime.

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BossHog
Posted (edited)

94W. Current plotting has it going north. If it does shift to the west, effects to d'Phils will be in a week or so. 

1528885553_rb(1).gif.589b90837b709b4da868811e2530f94c.gif94W_gefs_latest.thumb.png.3b5d452ed2e887cc7d272052d8452ee3.png

 

Edited by BossHog

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MickyG

This tracker suggest it comes in to NE luzon   https://www.windy.com/?0.901,136.670,5

 

Anyway it looks like you are going to be clear in Mindanao

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Dafey
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, MickyG said:

This tracker suggest it comes in to NE luzon

Possibly in about a week.

Let's keep an eye on it as many things can happen in a week

Edited by Dafey
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colemanlee

The good news is we might get some rain which will be great for my flowers....

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BossHog

System has been upgraded from low to medium chance of cyclonic development by the JTWC. Track also seems to be more to the NW than due N now. Maybe it'll graze northeastern Luzon then proceed to Japan. But there's absolutely no indication of this being a major storm at the moment. Maybe a TD (tropical depression).

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Dafey

image.thumb.png.20867980a790ebe9c166868157b12a3a.png

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rfm010
14 hours ago, Dafey said:

image.thumb.png.20867980a790ebe9c166868157b12a3a.png

Rooting for red or better.   Scheduled water outages are getting longer and less scheduled up here in paradize.

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Dafey

The funny thing is how different these spaghetti models are! (guess that's why they call them 'spaghetti' models)

If you look at today's prediction map the various models can't even agree on where the storm center currently is! It's like a thread with 6 LinC Members...

I've found that the purple line is usually the most accurate and the red is the least accurate. Just my observation but the red comes from Europe...what do they know about tropical storms?

Then there is the noncommital Japanese model...they'll chime in the day before it hits so they have a greater chance of being right.

And of course the aqua colored Canadian model...again, so much tropical storm expertise from the land of Moosehead Eh?

image.thumb.png.d6b06c5f37c867ae62962bf435e7bcde.png

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Soupeod
11 minutes ago, Dafey said:

If you look at today's prediction map the various models can't even agree on where the storm center currently is! It's like a thread with 6 LinC Members...

:lol:

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SkyMan
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, rfm010 said:

Rooting for red or better.   Scheduled water outages are getting longer and less scheduled up here in paradize.

We finally got a nice downpour this morning but I don't think it was related to this TD.  I looked on Windy and really can't see any particular reason for it.  Odd how with all the models showing it going north, it really hasn't moved much at all.

Edited by SkyMan

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BossHog
Posted (edited)
On 6/20/2019 at 10:45 PM, rfm010 said:

Rooting for red or better.   Scheduled water outages are getting longer and less scheduled up here in paradize.

This guy's calling for 8-9 inches (500-600mm) of rain for Manila....

 

Edited by BossHog
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SkyMan
1 hour ago, BossHog said:

This guy's calling for 8-9 inches (500-600mm) of rain for Manila....

 

Probably more than they want all at once but we need it. 

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BossHog
2 minutes ago, SkyMan said:

Probably more than they want

Think his English to metric conversion is way off. Not sure which one is predicted: the 8 inches or the 500 mm. They're not even close to the same.

And he used to be the chief broadcast meteorologist for NHK in Japan and should know better, lol.

Anyways, it's gonna rain in Luzon after the weekend and that's my official forecast!

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SkyMan
4 hours ago, BossHog said:

This guy's calling for 8-9 inches (500-600mm) of rain for Manila....

He didn't say 500-600mm he said 5-600 mm and 8-9 inches is in that range.  It's an old meteorology trick like 30% chance of rain.

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