MickyG 322 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Ok this baby is now about to climb out the pram and spit the dummy. The wind shear is gone and it has now assumed classic shape. Speed nil, so it is forming on itself. Only question now is how much warmer is the water in the Philippines sea and the pressure gradients. this may not get over windy but looks like being very wet and sticking around due to very slow approach. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 38,489 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 50 minutes ago, MickyG said: how much warmer is the water in the Philippines sea SSTs (surface sea temperatures) are around 28-30 degrees C. There's certainly the chance to see some development here but it doesn't look like typhoon material just yet. That could all change however. Storm will be named Samuel when it enters the PAR. It's got my attention though as it seems to be headed directly for Siargao where I live. Looks like Tuesday evening is going to be a bit windy and wet. 4 Link to post Share on other sites
Administrator +Dafey 15,216 Posted November 17, 2018 Author Administrator Share Posted November 17, 2018 It appears as though this storm will move quickly over the islands. That is good news. If a storm moves quickly there is less time for destructive winds to do damage. However, it never hurts to stick up on water, petrol, canned goods and cash as ATMs may be out of service. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Woolf 8,550 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, Dafey said: It appears as though this storm will move quickly over the islands. That is good news. If a storm moves quickly there is less time for destructive winds to do damage. However, it never hurts to stick up on water, petrol, canned goods and cash as ATMs may be out of service. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It is a tropical depression not much chance it will develop to a typhoon could give a lot of rain tho , for most of tuesday 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Bama 1,743 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 24 Oras weather just had a graphic predicting the storms landfall in Mindanao 8AM Tues. Link to post Share on other sites
MickyG 322 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 This storm is rattling along at top speed of 2km/h seems to be staying south for far longer than they usually do. Looks like being slow and wet not so windy Link to post Share on other sites
Woolf 8,550 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 On 11/17/2018 at 6:35 AM, MickyG said: This storm is rattling along at top speed of 2km/h ?????? 2 km/h ???? Cebu Daily News https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/203955/pagasa-monitors-lpa-outside-par Quote Pagasa monitors LPA outside PAR By Inquirer.net|November 17,2018 - 12:42 PM The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is constantly monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) spotted outside the Philippine area of responsibilty. Pagasa said that as of 3 a.m. of Saturday, the LPA was located at 2,010 kilometers east of Mindanao. It has a maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 60 kph. It is moving westward at a speed of 20 kph. With this, the Pagasa said that the Palawan island would have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms caused by the trough of LPA. Possible flooding and landslides could be expected, Pagasa warned the residents. The Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan Valley, will also have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains but due to the northeast monsoon. Metro Manila and the rest of the country, meanwhile, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers caused by localized thunderstorms. Link to post Share on other sites
Soupeod 7,405 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Woolf said: It is a tropical depression not much chance it will develop to a typhoon could give a lot of rain tho , for most of tuesday Any idea of wind speed i.e knots per hour? Edited November 17, 2018 by soupeod Link to post Share on other sites
Woolf 8,550 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, soupeod said: Any idea of wind speed i.e knots per hour? Chech my post quote cebu daily news just above your post you can convert km/h to knots if you need to 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MickyG 322 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Now up to 10km/h or is it down to? source https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-218.35,2.33,847/loc=138.103,6.725 Link to post Share on other sites
Administrator +Dafey 15,216 Posted November 18, 2018 Author Administrator Share Posted November 18, 2018 I'm not sure of what you all are using for sources but Typhoon 2000 is my go to site when storms are coming http://typhoon2000.ph/ Earth & WindyTV add a good prospective but they are not as finely tuned as Typhoon 2000 Here is the latest satellite video https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmsw.html The storm is not powerful wind wise but it is packing a bunch of rain. Get your rubbers out, (or boots if you prefer), we are in for a couple of wet days! Also, keep in mind on the track map, the dot is where the center of the low is. Most of the rain is to the West, (left), of the center. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Goetz1965 1,068 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Ok, I will prepare my umbrella Link to post Share on other sites
RogerDat 3,478 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to post Share on other sites
Administrator +Dafey 15,216 Posted November 18, 2018 Author Administrator Share Posted November 18, 2018 Expect this to speed up as it passes over the Philippines...Coming right at you @BossHog BTW, I've always found the purplish prediction to be the most accurate Link to post Share on other sites
Soupeod 7,405 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 22 hours ago, Woolf said: Chech my post quote cebu daily news just above your post you can convert km/h to knots if you need to Thanks I missed it. Link to post Share on other sites
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