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Tropical Depression Samuel Comming (15 Nov 2018)


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Ok this baby is now about to climb out the pram and spit the dummy. The wind shear is gone and it has now assumed classic shape. Speed nil, so it is forming on itself.

 

Only question now is how much warmer is the water in the Philippines sea and the pressure gradients. this may not get over windy but looks like being very wet and sticking around due to very slow approach.

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Actually....you don't need to worry about it at all !!! Don't bother checking in on the thread or watching any of the weather updates. Just enjoy yourself in Never-Never land. Byeeeee....

There is a low pressure building in the Pacific that will likely come straight across the Viscyans and rapidly move towards the western AOR. Does not look horrible at this time but worth watching.

Or have your Luftwaffe cap pulled too far down over your eyes. A lot of the Yolanda casualties could have been prevented had more people watched what was happening. Thanks for posting about this

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BossHog
50 minutes ago, MickyG said:

how much warmer is the water in the Philippines sea

SSTs (surface sea temperatures) are around 28-30 degrees C. There's certainly the chance to see some development here but it doesn't look like typhoon material just yet. That could all change however. Storm will be named Samuel when it enters the PAR.

It's got my attention though as it seems to be headed directly for Siargao where I live. Looks like Tuesday evening is going to be a bit windy and wet.

VWzZZga.thumb.jpg.12b12b59e9822b4b3abf0c48fdae21d7.jpg

 

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Dafey

It appears as though this storm will move quickly over the islands. That is good news. If a storm moves quickly there is less time for destructive winds to do damage.

However, it never hurts to stick up on water, petrol, canned goods and cash as ATMs may be out of service.


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16 minutes ago, Dafey said:

It appears as though this storm will move quickly over the islands. That is good news. If a storm moves quickly there is less time for destructive winds to do damage.

However, it never hurts to stick up on water, petrol, canned goods and cash as ATMs may be out of service.


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It is a tropical depression not much chance it will develop to a typhoon

could give a lot of rain tho , for most of tuesday

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24 Oras weather just had a graphic predicting the storms landfall in Mindanao 8AM Tues.

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This storm is rattling along at top speed of 2km/h

 

seems to be staying south for far longer than they usually do.

 

Looks like being slow and wet not so windy

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On 11/17/2018 at 6:35 AM, MickyG said:

This storm is rattling along at top speed of 2km/h

??????  2 km/h       ????

Cebu Daily News

https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/203955/pagasa-monitors-lpa-outside-par
 

Quote

Pagasa monitors LPA outside PAR

By Inquirer.net|November 17,2018 - 12:42 PM

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is constantly monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) spotted outside the Philippine area of responsibilty.

Pagasa said that as of 3 a.m. of Saturday, the LPA was located at 2,010 kilometers east of Mindanao.

It has a maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 60 kph. It is moving westward at a speed of 20 kph.

With this, the Pagasa said that the Palawan island would have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms caused by the trough of LPA.

Possible flooding and landslides could be expected, Pagasa warned the residents.

The Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan Valley, will also have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains but due to the northeast monsoon.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country, meanwhile, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers caused by localized thunderstorms.

 

 

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Soupeod
3 hours ago, Woolf said:

It is a tropical depression not much chance it will develop to a typhoon

could give a lot of rain tho , for most of tuesday

Any idea of wind speed i.e knots per hour?

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11 minutes ago, soupeod said:

Any idea of wind speed i.e knots per hour?

Chech my post  quote cebu daily news just above your post

you can convert km/h  to knots   if you need to 

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Dafey

I'm not sure of what you all are using for sources but Typhoon 2000 is my go to site when storms are coming

http://typhoon2000.ph/

Earth & WindyTV add a good prospective but they are not as finely tuned as Typhoon 2000

Here is the latest satellite video

 https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmsw.html

The storm is not powerful wind wise but it is packing a bunch of rain. Get your rubbers out, (or boots if you prefer), we are in for a couple of wet days!

image.thumb.png.8942abb8da13f826d1565bc878219870.png

Also, keep in mind on the track map, the dot is where the center of the low is. Most of the rain is to the West, (left), of the center.

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Dafey

Expect this to speed up as it passes over the Philippines...Coming right at you @BossHog

image.thumb.png.b703264fa231b75aa325603eb445f74b.png

BTW, I've always found the purplish prediction to be the most accurate

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Soupeod
22 hours ago, Woolf said:

Chech my post  quote cebu daily news just above your post

you can convert km/h  to knots   if you need to 

Thanks I missed it.

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