Tropical Depression Samuel Comming (15 Nov 2018)

[+Dafey 15,223]

There is a low pressure building in the Pacific that will likely come straight across the Viscyans and rapidly move towards the western AOR. Does not look horrible at this time but worth watching.

[Goetz1965 1,068]

So what, as long its no fact there's no reason to panic ! 
WHEN it enters PAR we can start thinking about preparations, until then please don't disturb me living :-)

[+Dafey 15,223]

Actually....you don't need to worry about it at all !!! Don't bother checking in on the thread or watching any of the weather updates. Just enjoy yourself in Never-Never land.

Byeeeee....

[MickyG 322]

Yes been watching that one for the last few days. there is some wind shear at the southern pint that has prevented the full anticyclonic development. Once that stops influencing this may be another Yolanda.

[+Dafey 15,223]

33 minutes ago, MickyG said:

this may be another Yolanda.

I'll take another look. I didn't see that potential but a lot can happen in a week. (unless you've stuck your head in the sand!)

[shadow 18,483]

51 minutes ago, Dafey said:

I'll take another look. I didn't see that potential but a lot can happen in a week. (unless you've stuck your head in the sand!)

Or have your Luftwaffe cap pulled too far down over your eyes.

A lot of the Yolanda casualties could have been prevented had more people watched what was happening. Thanks for posting about this potential storm.

[TequilaSunset 2,762]

I'm arriving on the 4th... so the selfish me is not worried and hoping for great days for my expeditions on the Phils.

[MickyG 322]

North easterlies appearing to shear the front so it has stopped dead

[Goetz1965 1,068]

Copied from Facebook:

 

Good Evening! TD 98C is now gradually consolidating its low-level circulation while traversing the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia.

Based on this satellite image, the convection remains poorly disorganized, while traveling in warm-SSTs of 28°C to 30°C with low to moderate vertical wind shear. These factors are considered for more gradual development.

Location: 400 km. WNW of Chuuk Lagoon or 3,000 km. East of Bislig, Surigao del Sur
Strength: 35 kph
Direction: W to WSW

To avoid repeated questions, here's something to know about this tropical depression:

• Will it make landfall? Most likely.

• If yes, in what areas? According to most of the models, if 98C continues to move in its current direction, Mindanao Island will be its first strike.

• When? Too early to say, but most probably, next weekend.

• What intensity? Too early to say also. Explanation are on the last part of this post.

• Will it make landfall in Visayas? 40% to 60% chance since 98C is still far from our country. Again, long-range forecast are somewhat always problematic. Things may change.

• Will it make landfall in Luzon? In Palawan, possible. But in the main island, which includes Bicol and Manila? No. LOW chance.

Kindly take note that all the models are currently split with the future intensity and timing of TD 98C for the next 4-5 days. I repeat, global models are not 100% accurate. We will clearly know the possible exact day of landfall by next week.

GFS - 98C to become a severe tropical storm within the next 7-8 days as it approaches the Mindanao Island. After passing the aforementioned area, the storm may become a Category 1 typhoon in Sulu Sea before going to Palawan, then go straight to West Philippine Sea. This is pretty aggressive but the potential of typhoon intensity is not out of the question. Still at LOW confidence.

ECMWF and ICON - 98C will remain a weak tropical depression for the next couple of days. It will then gradually intensify once the system is already in the West Philippine Sea.

CMC - 98C will gradually intensify but not reaching typhoon status. Landfall will be on Samar. LOW confidence on the model's track.

NAVGEM - Same as CMC but the landfall suggests in Bicol Region.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Goetz1965

[+Dafey 15,223]

Great report...we are still watching

[Woolf 8,550]

Tuesday next week could be a bit wet 

also Wednesday early morning

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2018-11-20-00,11.275,135.494,6

[MickyG 322]

The Ne winds are no longer shearing the front and the storm is now taking on a distinctive shape compared to yesterdays weather chart.

 

Visayas are going to get this one, not sure how intense

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-196.18,0.15,990/loc=143.679,7.620

[HTM 5,426]

No, it don't make landfall in the Philippines. this is information from the thunder God Tor.

 

[Goetz1965 1,068]

Possible makes landfall in northern mindanao and travels the Bohol sea as a severe tropical storm.
I go back to sleep now

[cookie47 2,021]

Good morning,
Regardless of the outcome of this event i would like to thank all involved in posting details of possible scenarios.

Being prepared and informed is essential for these events.

I went through Cyclone Tracy in Darwin Christmas 1974.

No one took the weather forecasters seriously as one week prior there was a similar alert indicating a Cyclone /Typhoon was bearing down on Darwin. However this Cyclone took off in a different direction AT the last minute.

Subsequently on the eve of the arrival of Tracy everybody was still out and about and the sceptics were still drinking in the Darwin Hotel thinking it was another false alarm.

Bad idea.

Unfortunately 51 (the official figure) people lost their lives which is nothing compared with Yolanda and others in the US in recent times..

Darwin was flattened mainly due to poor or no building codes relating to Cyclones. It was a wake up call with now much stricter requirements for keeping your roof on.

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