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BossHog

Typhoon Yutu - Rosita (23 Oct 2018)

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BossHog

This got suddenly quite strong overnight and is now forecast to peak at 150 knots.

aX5pPap.thumb.gif.c7f0550178dfc6a52eea89fcf62718a6.gifall-00.png.04c5ad8cbeae64c4acd696de83b7e25d.png

Two early Wednesday morning pics..

20181023_2120_hm8.x.vis1km.31WYUTU.110kts-941mb-126N-1489E.100pc.jpg.1d5f8171a672c34f178fa08fde379449.jpg

ZZXDJzl.thumb.jpg.fd13e635cb7d98922b784b3841234aa7.jpg

 

Edited by Dafey

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Dafey

When they first started tracking this beast the spaghetti models were all over the place...

image.png.94727bc11c39757d557ba9960442e849.png

Today it looks like they have a better handle on it's projected track...

image.thumb.png.a43da58530ae3df2e35b9351b07e53bb.png

I think we are pretty much in the clear...but, id doesn't hurt to prepare!

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BossHog
19 minutes ago, Dafey said:

I think we are pretty much in the clear..

Looks like Saipan is going to take a direct hit from a very strong storm.

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Woolf

Could turn north before hitting Taiwan

https://www.windy.com/?11.932,143.064,5

Press the arrow to the bottom left

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Hoss

Nice Website Woolf! Looks like this storm is heading towards Saipan and Rota. 

Im on Guam right now and there is only a little bit of wind...4-5 mph and no rain

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BossHog

This thing has basically exploded. Will be the biggest storm to date on planet earth in 2018

Boat travel here is off and so are the planes. Huge surf expected here on Siargao come Sunday. 

The Marianas gonna catch it right soon. No idea if there will be a northern Luzon landfall; that remains to be seen.

Already up to 145 knots and down to 908 mb. That my friends is a storm.

20181024_0620_hm8.x.vis1km.31WYUTU.145kts-908mb-139N-1471E.100pc.jpg.54b0df6a945f91a47d113e4d41d60747.jpg

 

 

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Dafey
1 hour ago, BossHog said:

No idea if there will be a northern Luzon landfall; that remains to be seen.

Looks nasty!

Luzon will surely catch some weather of this thing

 

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BossHog

Getting the feeling we ain't heard the last of Yutu:

31W_geps_latest.thumb.png.9aee4ddfa74f8511ead214d9b19cbd1e.png

4ojJah9.thumb.png.61e85e08609885147b9c3a6b40cc801d.png

Edited by BossHog
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MickyG

looks like it is still tracking wnw

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Janneo

Which of the tracking organisations has the best track record for this area?

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BossHog

Turns out Yutu was the 5th strongest cyclone to make landfall in history. Yolanda still the champion.

strongest-storms.thumb.png.e4e94cecbb3acc2905f9b950941de5df.png

 

 

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Headshot
29 minutes ago, BossHog said:

Turns out Yutu was the 5th strongest cyclone to make landfall in history. Yolanda still the champion.

strongest-storms.thumb.png.e4e94cecbb3acc2905f9b950941de5df.png

Where did the chart come from? First of all, the eye wall on Haiyan hit Leyte, not Samar, and the clocked wind speed was 200 mph steady and 250 mph gusts.

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BossHog
12 minutes ago, Headshot said:

Where did the chart come from?

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Saipan-Ravaged-Yutu-Photos-and-First-Hand-Account

13 minutes ago, Headshot said:

First of all, the eye wall on Haiyan hit Leyte, not Samar

Haiyan's initial landfall was in the small surfing community of Guiuan in Eastern Samar.

15 minutes ago, Headshot said:

and the clocked wind speed was 200 mph steady and 250 mph gusts.

The chart clearly refers to wind speed at landfall.

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RogerDuMond
16 minutes ago, Headshot said:

Where did the chart come from? First of all, the eye wall on Haiyan hit Leyte, not Samar, and the clocked wind speed was 200 mph steady and 250 mph gusts.

Making landfall is defined as the eye wall hitting land. The second of 5 landfalls was Leyte.

The first landfall happened in Guiuan town of Easter Samar at 4:40 am Friday.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/43215-yolanda-landfalls-pagasa

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oztony

Whelp ...looks like Bill's only way out of this one is to go back in time and use his powers to change events..... :hi:

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Dafey

Are we talking mph, kph or Knots?

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oztony
7 minutes ago, Dafey said:

Are we talking mph, kph or Knots?

Lets just cut to the chase and call it hsph , save any further confusion with this speed thing ...the cyclone was doing 180 head shots per hour when it made landfall .... :)

Edited by oztony
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colemanlee

these guys are pretty good

 

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Bama

Who can forget this pic showing the total destruction of Guiuan?

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Dafey
Quote

 

Incoming typhoon Rosita could follow Ompong's track

image.png.341efe8fdf537ff43d6981609241701c.png

Typhoon Yutu could follow the same track as Typhoon Ompong, which struck Northern Luzon last September.

In a Friday evening weather update on "State of the Nation with Jessica Soho," meteorologist Nathaniel Cruz reported that Typhoon Yutu could make landfall over Northern Luzon on Tuesday (October 30) or Wednesday (October 31).

Yutu will be named "Rosita" once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), which PAGASA said could happen Saturday morning.

The typhoon was still outside PAR late Wednesday evening, spotted 1,815 kilometers east of Northern Luzon and forecast to continue west at 20 kph.

It was packing maximum sustained winds moving 185  kph near the center with gustiness of up to 225 kph.

The weather disturbance could also bring rainfall to the country and raise cyclone warning signals as early as Monday. —JST, GMA News

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/technology/incoming-typhoon-rosita-could-follow-ompongs-track/ar-BBOVTgS?ocid=spartandhp

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BossHog

Rosita1818.thumb.png.6d4f0ed971bbf23cf72c1f278cbfb072.png

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Dafey

Looks like it's taking a turn for the worse, (as the Philippines goes)

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Dafey

If you watch this video you can see a little bit of Wind Sheer on the western and northwestern reaches of this storm. This won't save Luzon from a direct hit but it's a good example of sheering and how it will help diminish the power of a typhoon.

You can see the buzzsaw spinning counter clockwise but the far reaches of it's clouds move north so there is a distinct separation of winds. That's sheering.

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmsw.html

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Headshot

I've been watching the forecast tracks on this storm for the last several days, and the tracks vary wildly from one day to the next, if not hour to hour. The only thing that is apparent about this storm is that the forecasters have absolutely no idea where it will go. Day before yesterday, they had it cutting across the northern part of Luzon and then slamming into Hainan. Yesterday, they had it running over the Batanes Islands north of Luzon and then putting a bullseye on Hong Kong. Today they have it plowing across central Luzon and dying out near Taiwan. Well, I guess they have all of the bases covered, so somebody can say, "Hey, look. I was right ... sort of."

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