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soupeod

Potential Queenie Might Enter Par On October 1 Or 2

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soupeod
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20180927-paeng-track-430pm_3A09E77D1B304

https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/212975-lpa-typhoon-paeng-pagasa-forecast-september-27-2018-5pm

Potential Queenie might enter PAR on October 1 or 2

There is a low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility which could become a tropical cyclone. Typhoon Paeng, meanwhile, is still slowly moving away.

Rappler.com

Published 6:10 PM, September 27, 2018

Updated 6:10 PM, September 27, 2018

What's the weather like in your area? Report the situation through Rappler's Agos or tweet us at @rapplerdotcom.

Satellite image of Typhoon Paeng (Trami) in the center, and the low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility on the right, as of September 27, 2018, 4:30 pm. Image from NOAA

MANILA, Philippines – Aside from the slow-moving Typhoon Paeng (Trami) which does not pose a threat to the Philippines, forecasters are now monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In a Facebook Live video at 5 pm on Thursday, September 27, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is located 3,225 kilometers east of Mindanao.

It might enter PAR either on Monday, October 1, or Tuesday, October 2. If it enters as a tropical cyclone or develops into a tropical cyclone inside PAR, it would be given the local name Queenie.

Since the LPA remains very far from PAR, it is still uncertain how strong it would be or which path it would take. PAGASA is expected to give details in the coming days.

 

 

Queenie.jpg

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Woolf

May hit nothern tip of luzon thursday friday next week, but track can change before then

https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-04-12,18.146,131.331,5

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MickyG

I am not sure that is the one they are referring to. The one i am looking at is Sw of Mindanao hugging the equator. It has not yet formed a traditional vortex as it is suffering from wind shear due to a below equator cyclone affect.  Last time we had a significant storm from this direction it became Typhoon Yollanda.

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Woolf
4 minutes ago, MickyG said:

I am not sure that is the one they are referring to. The one i am looking at is Sw of Mindanao hugging the equator. It has not yet formed a traditional vortex as it is suffering from wind shear due to a below equator cyclone affect.  Last time we had a significant storm from this direction it became Typhoon Yollanda.

I think the one you mention is the one I showed

Check  here:

https://www.windy.com/?2018-09-28-09,8.777,137.351,5

press the arrow to the bottom left

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RogerDuMond
8 minutes ago, MickyG said:

I am not sure that is the one they are referring to. The one i am looking at is Sw of Mindanao hugging the equator. It has not yet formed a traditional vortex as it is suffering from wind shear due to a below equator cyclone affect.  Last time we had a significant storm from this direction it became Typhoon Yollanda.

You say that Yolanda came from the southwest of Mindanao?

track-yolanda-20131107-8am.thumb.gif.5c7ab818e38b24705180d87003492d10.gif

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TequilaSunset
2 minutes ago, RogerDuMond said:

You say that Yolanda came from the southwest of Mindanao?

track-yolanda-20131107-8am.thumb.gif.5c7ab818e38b24705180d87003492d10.gif

 

I'm not trying to go OT, but how was Cebu City (Cebu in general) affected? Looks like a pretty direct hit

Edited by TequilaSunset

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Barryrio

Just strong gusty wind in Cebu but otherwise no problem. The storm trashed the northern part of the island. Bantayan fared particularly badly as I recall.

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MickyG

Apologies SE of mindanao. the map you put up does that show where Yolanda first formed as i was under the impression it started further south nearer the  equator

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RogerDat

Found this in regards of where Yolanda came from "No, a hurricane cannot cross the equator and change its rotation due to a property of physics known as the Coriolis effect. The Coriolis effect dictates that low pressures rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, pulling storms away from the equator.Jul 2, 2010"

Sivaiah Borra, M.Sc Physical Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam

Answered Feb 24 2016 · Author has 65 answers and 441.2k answer views

In general, By satisfying all the favorable conditions to form a cyclone, the cyclones will form over the ocean surface. These favorable conditions are 1.sea surface temperature (26.5  degrees), 2. sufficient Coriolis force, 3. low level positive vorticity,  4.weak vertical wind shear of horizontal winds, 5. large convective  instability, 6.low level convergence of the winds, 7. huge supply of  moisture from the sea surface. Among them everything has to be satisfied, then only the cyclone will form. but, near the equatorial region all conditions will almost available excluding Coriolis parameter(in Mathematical form F=2ΩsinØ, where Ω is angular velocity of the earth(7.2921159 × 10-5 radians/second), Ø is latitude (0(equator)-90(poles) degrees)), which is pseudo force that will deflects (right side of the actual wind movement in northern hemisphere as well as left in the southern hemisphere) the actual movement of the wind due to the earth rotation. without earth rotation we can't see this Coriolis force. Cyclones need a certain amount of Coriolis force in order to start spinning. but, what happening near the equatorial region is the Coriolis force is zero(because if you put 0(equator) in the above equation, then F=2ΩsinØ, F=2Ωsin0=0 since, "sin0=0") that mean there is no spinning. Without spinning, the cyclone can't form and sustain. That's why the cyclones are not formed near the equator.

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MickyG

Further south nearer the equator does not mean the other side of the equator.  But you knew that already, maybe. So did you locate its start point nearer the equator but still north side?

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RogerDat

best I can do.

https://geographic.org/geographic_names/name.php?uni=-5088903&fid=1821&c=federated_states_of_micronesiaHaiyan_2013_track.thumb.png.cf0a7f661da9bc1dfbf3e4d701d94f69.png

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