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Dafey

Let's keep our eyes to the east...there is a low pressure brewing in the pacific. It will be about a week before it affects the Philippines but guess what???? That is smack dab on Easter weekend. Hope it doesn't develop but as slow as it's moving there is a possibility.

Plan accordingly. Travelers may take some huge delays.

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Dafey
18 minutes ago, Woolf said:

Do not look to be that bad on 29th

At the moment no...but it doesn't take much to cancel the ferries.

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sugbu777

It looked worse yesterday, but the circular formation has pretty much dissipated:

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZMAR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.8N 156.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 
NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED 
MESO-VORTICES FORMING AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. 
AN 182311Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. 
RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH WEAK WINDS 
ELSEWHERE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF BROAD 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYSTEM BUT ALL SHOW A 
GENERAL TREND THAT IT WILL TRACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH. THERE 
ARE NO MODELS SHOWING INDICATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

 

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1 hour ago, Dafey said:

Let's keep our eyes to the east...there is a low pressure brewing in the pacific. It will be about a week before it affects the Philippines but guess what???? That is smack dab on Easter weekend. Hope it doesn't develop but as slow as it's moving there is a possibility.

Plan accordingly. Travelers may take some huge delays.

I really hope it will hit hard. Easter weekend we have too many of them 'travellers'

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Dafey

Well, I didn’t listen to my own advice and got stuck in Cebu last night as the ferries cancelled!
Good luck to us today on an early start!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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BossHog

wp0318.thumb.gif.7f029e9b98cd77bce1bb57c29fad51a6.gif

 

Edited by BossHog
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liquido
1 hour ago, Dafey said:

Well, I didn’t listen to my own advice and got stuck in Cebu last night as the ferries cancelled!
Good luck to us today on an early start!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bad weather there last night?

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Aerosick
47 minutes ago, liquido said:

Bad weather there last night?

No, this morning just cloudy with no rain yet.

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BossHog

Tropical Depression 03W.  Warning #2 from the JTWC. Seems to be heading just a bit more to the west. Likely will get up to tropical storm strength tonight and quite possibly develop into a Cat 1 typhoon, but this should all take place out to sea.

International name would be 'Jelawat' and local name 'Caloy'.

5ab7161fe8c41_wp0318(1).thumb.gif.8f74241baa69e14484d3e827346be87a.gif

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/25/18/brewing-storm-heads-for-ph-as-holy-week-starts

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Dafey
6 hours ago, liquido said:

Bad weather there last night?

Weather was not so bad but high winds building some good size waves. On the boat at dock they announced "roxie" conditions if anyone wanted off now! About half the boat disembarked. An hour and a half into it we turned back.

This morning the conditions were as bad but the Captain seemed a little more savvy and really worked it to get us there. (Still have fingernail marks on my arm from the wife)

This storm may get pretty strong but the only affect we should see is higher than normal northerly wind for about a week. Gonna mess up the Easter traveling with cancellations.

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colemanlee

A friend of ours just had his boat trip from Ormoc to Cebu canceled....gonna have to stay over night in Ormoc

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Dafey
53 minutes ago, colemanlee said:

A friend of ours just had his boat trip from Ormoc to Cebu canceled....gonna have to stay over night in Ormoc

Going that direction should be okay but I bet his boat never made it to Ormoc from Cebu. They might not get one until the first boat from Cebu tomorrow morning.

But, don't discard the slow boats. The bigger buckets take the waves better than the fast craft. Yesterday I think we could have made it but the skipper wanted to have the throttle down...they don't know how to drive the fast craft slow.

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colemanlee

Im pretty sure it was the 11 am ro ro...he took the fast cat over and said almost everybody on board was sick...so he did not want a repeat experience...

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