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‘Vinta’ may barge into Visayas for Christmas Friday, December 15, 2017 (SunStar file photo)

TROPICAL Storm Urduja is set to leave the country this weekend or early next week, but a potential storm is brewing in the Pacific Ocean that may hit our shores just before Christmas Day, a weather bureau official said yesterday. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that a low-pressure area (LPA) that could become a tropical storm loomed in the western portion of the Pacific Ocean. If it does develop into a tropical storm and enter the Philippine area of responsibility, the LPA will be called Vinta, said Engr. Oscar Tabada, PAGASA Visayas director. Vinta could be the 22nd tropical storm to hit the country. Tabada told SunStar Cebu that based on their weather models, Vinta could enter the country and affect the Visayas two days before Christmas Day. But it could also remain an LPA or dissipate. According to the models, if it becomes a severe tropical storm, Vinta could bring maximum sustained winds of up to 130 kph, enough to bring down a tree or a house made out of light materials. (JKV)

Read more: http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2017/12/16/vinta-may-barge-visayas-christmas-580043

 

 

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I'm hoping this storm will be more merciful too, but based on the latest rainfall forecast it's looking like a repeat and possibly for the same areas that suffered in 2011. A lot of people are going t

Leaving Davao tonight at 18:30 bound for Cebu ,then at 00:45 Korea and then onward to good old USA....Fingers crossed

Vice Mayor Pulong Duterte - Official 47 mins ·  UPDATED| DAVAO FLOOD REPORTS ALL REQUESTS FOR RESCUE DULY NOTED.

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Tullioz

It looks like this one may be headed to Mindanao with a landfall on sometime on Friday. 

models1.jpg.e283fe3896d1d8c34f1372ae633bd85b.jpg

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BossHog

I thought this was a good clear summary of 97W as it stands this (Tuesday) afternoon:

https://westernpacificweather.com/2017/12/19/kai-tak-drawing-rain-while-another-low-pressure-approaches-mindanao/

"Invest 97W is still simply a low pressure to the east of Mindanao. That being said, while the system is looking less likely to develop into something tropical, it is looking more likely that it will bring heavy rainfall into both Mindanao and Visayas as we head into Christmas weekend. Both the GFS and the Euro models are indicating the enhancement of moisture for the central and northern areas of the Philippines, while the southern areas will see the low pressure system passing over the region. It is becoming more likely that Mindanao will see a soaker of a storm for the weekend."

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to_dave007

I want to make the ferry crossing from Toledo to San Carlos Thursday morning Dec 21 at 7am.  Any predictions what conditions I'll find there at that time? 

Near as I can see the storm should not have degraded conditions for Toledo<>San Carlos ferry yet, so shouldn't be Signal 1 yet.. right?.

To me it looks like the storm may be far enough south as to not cause Signal 1 at all at Toledo..  and even if it does looks like not till late Friday.

Edited by to_dave007
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BossHog

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #1
FOR:Tropical Depression Vinta 
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING 

ISSUED AT:5:00 PM, 20 December 2017 

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) EAST OF HINATUAN, SURIGAO DEL SUR HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS NAMED "VINTA"

Read the whole thing here (with track, image, forecast, and storm signal):

https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins

 

track.thumb.png.0fc3d66b0c53714cce01d6dd694ecfb1.png

 

 

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BossHog

JMA has also now upgraded to a TD and has this moving closer to the Surigao area on a NW track:

b-00.png.1fa9532a4832740533f7ba66e1052a25.png

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JamesMusslewhite

   Looks like a wet holiday here in Surigao City this year. We will simply batten down the hatches and ride this out. If the power is knocked down and out for several weeks we have plenty of dry-goods and provisions in the cupboards. Growing up on the South Texas Gulf coast I know the drill and have been to this rodeo many times before. We are prepared so we will do fine, but I hope everyone living south of us does as well. I hope there is no loss of life as the ground is already fairly saturated this time of year and there is always the fear of landslides and quick heavy flooding of the lowlands. The worst possible places to be living is unfortunately also were the poorest of the poor are forced to dwell.  

   Looks like this storm will be following a similar path which Typhoon Pablo as it ripped through the center of Mindanao. Pablo was a killer which displaced over 200,000 people, affected whole communities and decimated large areas of agricultural lands. Being the holidays means masses of people have travel far to see and be with family and friends. This will hinder government and civil services as well as fire and rescue which are most likely only skeleton; this will certainly tax public transit, airports, bus terminals and ferry services slowing the ability quickly adjust to adverse conditions and emergencies. I pray this storm will be far gentler and more merciful.    

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JamesMusslewhite
28 minutes ago, BossHog said:

JMA has also now upgraded to a TD and has this moving closer to the Surigao area on a NW track:

b-00.png.1fa9532a4832740533f7ba66e1052a25.png

Well if it keeps that line of approach the eye could pass just below us. We live on a narrow island just feet from the shoreline. If it looks like the eye of the storm will be drifting further North and pushing a storm serge, then we have the boat ready and could be fully packed and evacuated in only a few hours. We could be to our farm on Dinagat Island within an hour or just boat over to the mainland in under 10 minutes. If there is no tidal surge then we are just going to stay in place and watch the show. It is things such as this which adds a little excitement to living in the land of the never-ending summer.

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JamesMusslewhite
17 hours ago, to_dave007 said:

I want to make the ferry crossing from Toledo to San Carlos Thursday morning Dec 21 at 7am.  Any predictions what conditions I'll find there at that time? 

Near as I can see the storm should not have degraded conditions for Toledo<>San Carlos ferry yet, so shouldn't be Signal 1 yet.. right?.

To me it looks like the storm may be far enough south as to not cause Signal 1 at all at Toledo..  and even if it does looks like not till late Friday.

Better get there extra early to guarantee a seat as it is so close to the holidays.

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BossHog

I hope everyone reading realizes that this isn't a typhoon. It's actually not even a tropical storm yet (although that upgrade is a possibility). @JamesMusslewhiteAs you astutely said above, the already saturated ground is a factor but really location is everything. Those in the path who are in low or landslide-prone areas need to pay attention. But I hope nobody's overly alarmed by this tropical depression. 

Just passing along information from official sources, that's all.

Oh, and the 11 pm Pagasa bulletin #2 just got issued. Same as the link above, but here it is again:

https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins

Signal #1 for Surigao del Norte now in effect, James. 

Edited by BossHog
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JamesMusslewhite
10 minutes ago, BossHog said:

I hope everyone reading realizes that this isn't a typhoon. It's actually not even a tropical storm yet (although that upgrade is a possibility). @JamesMusslewhiteAs you astutely said above, the already saturated ground is a factor but really location is everything. Those in the path who are in low or landslide-prone areas need to pay attention. But I hope nobody's overly alarmed by this tropical depression. 

Just passing along information from official sources, that's all.

 

   The hills, rivers and lowlands are the only real threat. We have been having quite a bit of rain over the last two weeks so the chance of mudslides and flash-flooding could be an issue, plus most services are in holiday mode. Simple power line damage will take much longer to get repaired as well as possible slower and fewer rescue services. The coastguard will stop the passenger boats which will strand some folks, flooding could hinder overland transportation stranding many others.

   Yes Pablo had high winds which caused considerable damage but it was the rain that caused most of the moralities. When Pablo hit the wet ground conditions were quite similar to what they are now and it triggered a lot of mudslides and flash flooding. If this storm quickly passes overland then it should be no big deal, but if it comes in slow or lingers offshore and strengthens then it could drop a considerable amount of rain over already saturated land and existing runoffs.

As far as us, as long as there is no tidal surge above 1 meter (High tide) then we will be ok. We will simply pack anything of any real importance and just boat to the farm or the mainland until the water subsides. At least if the storm moves as projected then landfall will be during daylight hours which will make it easier.

 

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Tullioz
2 hours ago, BossHog said:

I hope everyone reading realizes that this isn't a typhoon. It's actually not even a tropical storm yet (although that upgrade is a possibility). @JamesMusslewhiteAs you astutely said above, the already saturated ground is a factor but really location is everything. Those in the path who are in low or landslide-prone areas need to pay attention. But I hope nobody's overly alarmed by this tropical depression. 

Just passing along information from official sources, that's all.

Oh, and the 11 pm Pagasa bulletin #2 just got issued. Same as the link above, but here it is again:

https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins

Signal #1 for Surigao del Norte now in effect, James. 

I remember when tropical storm Washi was approaching Mindanao back in 2011. People were downplaying the possible impacts because it was just a tropical storm. In the end it became one of Mindanao's worst disasters in history.

This storm will easily become a tropical storm by tomorrow evening if its not already. Looking at the current satellite and pressure, it looks pretty close to being one now.  This will definitely be a tropical storm or perhaps low end typhoon by the time it makes landfall. Regardless, it looks like it will take a very similar path to Washi after making landfall and will be producing 5 to 10 inches of rain along it's path in a short period of time. Some places may even see more. Flash flooding and landslides are a given with this system regardless of it's strength so I hope people will be paying attention to this one.   Hopefully this will not be a repeat of what took place in 2011. 

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Deadly Tropical Storm Washi

On December 16th, Tropical Storm Washi struck the Philippine island of Mindanao, bringing 10 solid hours of torrential rainfall - up to 16 inches (400mm) in some places - causing multiple flash floods and mudslides. Already-swollen rivers overflowed their banks, inundating some areas under more than 3 meters (10 ft) of muddy water in less than an hour, sweeping away vehicles and homes. The deaths of more than 1,000 residents have been confirmed, making Washi the deadliest storm of 2011. Nearly 50,000 residents remain in evacuation centers as government agencies and aid organizations are now working to recover and rebuild what they can. Collected here are recent images from storm-battered Mindanao.

Read more:

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2011/12/deadly-tropical-storm-washi/100212/

 

5a3a9dbacad1b_tswashi.jpg.ef81df057bf819f840325ed2fdec5c93.jpg5a3a9dd242000_tswashi2.jpg.dfce39b3f5198ba01723a47d091d70fb.jpg5a3a9e045796e_tswashi3.gif.71f536c0c396adbaeead49dd440f2f33.gif

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JamesMusslewhite
44 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

I remember when tropical storm Washi was approaching Mindanao back in 2011. People were downplaying the possible impacts because it was just a tropical storm. In the end it became one of Mindanao's worst disasters in history.

This storm will easily become a tropical storm by tomorrow evening if its not already. Looking at the current satellite and pressure, it looks pretty close to being one now.  This will definitely be a tropical storm or perhaps low end typhoon by the time it makes landfall. Regardless, it looks like it will take a very similar path to Washi after making landfall and will be producing 5 to 10 inches of rain along it's path in a short period of time. Some places may even see more. Flash flooding and landslides are a given with this system regardless of it's strength so I hope people will be paying attention to this one.   Hopefully this will not be a repeat of what took place in 2011. 

5a3a9dbacad1b_tswashi.jpg.ef81df057bf819f840325ed2fdec5c93.jpg5a3a9dd242000_tswashi2.jpg.dfce39b3f5198ba01723a47d091d70fb.jpg5a3a9e045796e_tswashi3.gif.71f536c0c396adbaeead49dd440f2f33.gif

   Yes I mistakenly named the Pablo storm but it was the Washi storm I was talking about. It too hit close to the holidays and everyone was in the holiday mode meaning most managers and government officials were vacationing and all fire and rescue crews were operating on minimum personal. This made recovery much more difficult as it took time for the primary decision makers and crew workers to get back to their posts. I remember it had been early rains several weeks before the storm arrived just as it has done before this storm. That is why I commented that I hope this storm is more merciful. 

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