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Daddy

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency

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Cgu
On 3/13/2018 at 10:11 PM, TheMatrix said:

631% to be exact.  The volatility is a positive.  Also predicting $35-40k by year end due to increased regulations.  More regs = more $$ pouring in especially from institutions.  

I think regulations will actually bring the price down. Currently the only advantage that cryptos have is exactly the lack of regulations. All the drug and arm dealing money, corruption and tax evading is safer to put into cryptos, as they cannot be tracked (or not as good as other papers, you always have a paper trail). They need to be pulled out once it will be possible to track them.

You only hold cryptos for 2 things: 1) Speculation 2) Evading tax (and not to be tracked). There is no other advantage.

Why hold it otherwise? Transaction fees are higher, no interest rate, limited use....I do not know other reasons.  At least holding a normal currency you get interest rates (if you take away the speculation - what else is here?) 

Transaction costs alone will never be lower just for cryptos. Already in the Eurozone transaction costs for money is practically zero (no transfer fee, payments zero costs etc.). However, blockchain as technology will be used to lower other transaction costs, such as signed papers (like buy/sell properties) etc.

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Aerosick
48 minutes ago, Cgu said:

You only hold cryptos for 2 things: 1) Speculation 2) Evading tax (and not to be tracked). There is no other advantage.

In the USA the IRS is adding short term & long term gains taxes. USA buyers / sellers are now required to give their Social Security #s on their accounts so they can track them.

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Daddy
3 hours ago, Cgu said:

I think regulations will actually bring the price down. Currently the only advantage that cryptos have is exactly the lack of regulations. All the drug and arm dealing money, corruption and tax evading is safer to put into cryptos, as they cannot be tracked (or not as good as other papers, you always have a paper trail). They need to be pulled out once it will be possible to track them.

You only hold cryptos for 2 things: 1) Speculation 2) Evading tax (and not to be tracked). There is no other advantage.

Why hold it otherwise? Transaction fees are higher, no interest rate, limited use....I do not know other reasons.  At least holding a normal currency you get interest rates (if you take away the speculation - what else is here?) 

Transaction costs alone will never be lower just for cryptos. Already in the Eurozone transaction costs for money is practically zero (no transfer fee, payments zero costs etc.). However, blockchain as technology will be used to lower other transaction costs, such as signed papers (like buy/sell properties) etc.

Cryptos are used as you stated above but those nefarious activities took place long before cryptos came along using various curriences that were issued by the state. 

There are other reasons for holding cryptos and that is a deteriorating faith in governments world wide including the EU. Western civilization is headed for dramatic changes in the coming years and some people are moving away from deteriorating fiat currencies is a part of that. You mention interest bearing deposits as one reason to be in fiat. My interest bearing accounts are less than 1% which I have to pay taxes on that income. With a low inflation rate of 2% or less I'm actually losing money keeping it in fiat. Also many countries have passed "bail in" laws which allows banks to confiscate deposits during a crisis  leaving g the depositor as an unsecured creditor. 

Yes, I think cryptos could eventually go to zero, but I also think that could could/will happen with the Yen, Euro, USD as well as many others as the respective governments crumble.

The central banks issue new monetary units, mostly to provide funding for bankrupt countries in the form of loans which they will NEVER pay back. They try to fool the people with their descriptive terms such as Quantative Easing which is intended to fool the populace that is not paying attention. They then "loan" the newly printed fiat that is backed by nothing that will never be repaid to bankrupt governments and their cronies. So I'm left with the decision of where to put my hard earned money that the government has not forcibly taken from me to finance their cushy jobs and pensions and given away to those that would vote for these politicians by claiming the "evil rich" need to be taxed more while they are actually the culprits. None of these nations can balance a budget, insteal they "borrow" money.

Will regulations kill cryptos? Maybe, going forward I think it will be more difficult for cryptos to survive as the central banks do not like competition and will pass any and all necessary laws/rules to crush any competitors.

Currently cryptos are not a serious threat but by the end of this year the OECD and/or G20 will intervene and cause serious harm as cryptos begin to grow out of their control.

 

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Daddy

I just bought Ethereum (ETH) for $384.16. It might go lower but I'm OK with what I bought today as I think it along with others will soon increase in price dramatically.

I also bought some Bitcoin, (BTC), for $7,351.59 each.

I'm a contrarian investor and try to buy low and sell high. The market is very choppy right now but I'm satisfied with both buys although there is a good chance the market will go lower before going much higher.

I've still have some money for even lower prices, especially Bitcoin and hopefully be able to buy more at the $5,900 mark as I have orders stacked in that range. 

I believe now is the time to get back in the crypto market, when market sentiment is low and getting lower. I don't have any predictions on when prices will increase except to say that by years end I think it will go up by 30X. That may sound crazy but what the heck. 

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Davaoeno
2 hours ago, Daddy said:

there is a good chance the market will go lower before going much higher.

Given that you believe that I do not understand , and given that you say you try to buy low, I do not understand why you say you are buying now ??    Why not just wait until the prices go lower- which is what you think will happen ??

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Daddy
7 minutes ago, Davaoeno said:

Given that you believe that I do not understand , and given that you say you try to buy low, I do not understand why you say you are buying now ??    Why not just wait until the prices go lower- which is what you think will happen ??

No one, including me has a crystal ball. The market is somewhat predictable but it can always go the other direction. My reasoning for getting in now when I think the market could go lower is that it will also probably bounce pretty hard and fast. There may not be time to get in if the it goes up quickly. Also no one knows exactly what the bottom is, it could be five dollars or five hundred, or more. Of course you know these things being an investor yourself.

Most of my investment training came from buying distressed apartment buildings over a span of 20 years. I always waited for the economy to turn down before buying as that is when you get the best deals, especially for distressed properties. I always tried to hit a home run on every deal so I was choosy, which you can be when you are one of the few buyers. Even if I overpaid a bit on a property, I was always covered because I bought it low. The same strategy works for me on crypto investing also. It is the waiting for the right time that is difficult.

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Davaoeno

Good luck to you whatever happens ! 

 

I think I mentioned before that I only really considered buying Bitcoin once before - and that was when it fell to $247 !!   

And i decided not to buy it -  So don't listen to me !! hehehe

Edited by Davaoeno

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Contango

This guy is a true believer....Tom Lee on CNBC Fast Money March 28, 2018.

.

 

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Cgu
12 hours ago, Daddy said:

I'm a contrarian investor and try to buy low and sell high

Well, that is surely no buying for a contrarian in this market - even in cryptos. A little over a year ago it was under 1000USD and 2 years ago under 500USD - so just from a 10'000 meter view one could tell that 7K is not really distressed.  If it hits say a 2 year low I would say a contrarian would step in, if the asset to buy is undervalued. But I would see a fundamental analysis that shows that cryptos are undervalued (I still wait somebody who can show me fundamental indicators that can be analysed).. That would really trigger a contrarian to step in - if he/she can see that the price is undervalued (but how do you value it? I can a bit value a currency, as there are some indicators to compare...but cryptos...). Even a 200 MA technical analysis would indicate sell (not that a contrarian would use this)

9 hours ago, Daddy said:

Most of my investment training came from buying distressed apartment buildings over a span of 20 years.

That I would definitely call a contrarian strategy (as you can analyse the market and see if properties are undervalued due to the current market sentiment - a simple indicator is the 5% rental value, which can be applied worldwide).

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Daddy
2 hours ago, Contango said:

This guy is a true believer....Tom Lee on CNBC Fast Money March 28, 2018.

.

 

LOL, That is the only time I've watched CNBC for anything in well over a year. IMO if you watch the talking heads for investment advice you WILL be in a heap of trouble at some point. 

I watch Bloomberg mostly but only to get the current data on various sectors. I almost never listen to the talking heads as they are "trained journalists", whatever the hell that is but are probably not experienced investors. 

I have a few basic rules that I've learned the hard way. Number one is, don't follow the crowd. Whatever is popular at the moment such as the stock market with many people rushing into it. That is a signal to me to sell all stock and get out. Just like Bitcoin late last year with people going crazy over the parabolic move and buying at any price. I was selling into that, not buying. Just as I'm now buying when everyone is selling and down on cryptos.

It is simple but not easy to do as you must control your emotions as humans are herd animals.

Good luck on your investing my friend! Oh, and get out of the Euro and especially euro bank stocks, or not.

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Daddy
2 minutes ago, Cgu said:

Well, that is surely no buying for a contrarian in this market - even in cryptos. A little over a year ago it was under 1000USD and 2 years ago under 500USD - so just from a 10'000 meter view one could tell that 7K is not really distressed.  If it hits say a 2 year low I would say a contrarian would step in, if the asset to buy is undervalued. But I would see a fundamental analysis that shows that cryptos are undervalued (I still wait somebody who can show me fundamental indicators that can be analysed).. That would really trigger a contrarian to step in - if he/she can see that the price is undervalued (but how do you value it? I can a bit value a currency, as there are some indicators to compare...but cryptos...). Even a 200 MA technical analysis would indicate sell (not that a contrarian would use this)

I agree with everything you said, however there is more  to it than fundamental and technical analysis. There is also cyclical analysis. not only in crypto but the other markets as well. Also most markets are distorted because of meddling by cental banks. I made decisions two years ago to sell my real estate investments when everyone was rushing into the sector and telling me I was crazy for selling The crash has not yet occured in that sector but it is very top heavy. I do not regret leaving a bit early as I would rather be a year early than 5 minutes  too late.

All I can say is stand by and watch. You might be right, then again you might not. I try to take a holistic approach in investing. One of my reasons for getting back into cryptos partially at this point is that geopolitical issues, (too many to list), can and probably will send markets of all stripes in various directions, some will be crashing while others are going up as this is the year of panic. This is truly one of the most difficult times to invest IMO. But to believe that things will work out fine and the governements have everything under control is a sure loser in most cases, IMO. As always I reserve the right to be wrong. 

 

 

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Cgu
22 minutes ago, Daddy said:

get out of the Euro

Well that is bold call - I assume that you refer to the EUR/USD pair (I know some investment banks called this for the EUR/USD pair). I myself am not a big currency trader (as a fact only once, when the Swissy let go of the fixed rate, but that are rare occasions on which you can act). 

I think the EUR will be stronger against the USD, but lets see. It is really hard to predict, but for me the indicators are stoner towards the Euro. What is going for the USD are the rate increases, but once the Euro starts with the rates....Also, the Eurozone fixed all major problems in the peripheral zones, so lets see. 

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Daddy
27 minutes ago, Cgu said:

Well that is bold call - I assume that you refer to the EUR/USD pair (I know some investment banks called this for the EUR/USD pair). I myself am not a big currency trader (as a fact only once, when the Swissy let go of the fixed rate, but that are rare occasions on which you can act). 

I think the EUR will be stronger against the USD, but lets see. It is really hard to predict, but for me the indicators are stoner towards the Euro. What is going for the USD are the rate increases, but once the Euro starts with the rates....Also, the Eurozone fixed all major problems in the peripheral zones, so lets see. 

In the short term I agree with you, the euro will probably get stronger against the USD but the economy as a whole is pretty much stagnant. But the euros strength will only hasten its demise.

The banks are in trouble, especially those in southern Europe. The ECB, with its zero interest rate and buying governement bonds is in a world of trouble, IMO and could/will go tits up starting before 2020. IMO

The whole of the EU seems to be coming apart with Brexit, Barcelona's wanting to split from Spain, Germany and Italy's election results and other issues that are dividing the countries. With the euro supposedly the glue that is holding it together it appears to be in great jeopardy as more and more dissent against the edicts from Brussels are not popular. The politics of the various countries are very different and those differences are coming to the surface. It doesn't bode well for the euro or the EU, as I believe it will completely go away in less than 7 years. As always I reserve the right to be wrong. 

Edited by Daddy
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Contango
3 hours ago, Daddy said:

LOL, That is the only time I've watched CNBC for anything in well over a year. IMO if you watch the talking heads for investment advice you WILL be in a heap of trouble at some point. 

I watch Bloomberg mostly but only to get the current data on various sectors. I almost never listen to the talking heads as they are "trained journalists", whatever the hell that is but are probably not experienced investors. 

Thomas Lee

Managing Partner/ Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

http://www.fundstrat.com/

 

For what is worth...

Edited by Contango

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billy
9 hours ago, Daddy said:

I agree with everything you said, however there is more  to it than fundamental and technical analysis. There is also cyclical analysis. not only in crypto but the other markets as well. Also most markets are distorted because of meddling by cental banks. I made decisions two years ago to sell my real estate investments when everyone was rushing into the sector and telling me I was crazy for selling The crash has not yet occured in that sector but it is very top heavy. I do not regret leaving a bit early as I would rather be a year early than 5 minutes  too late.

All I can say is stand by and watch. You might be right, then again you might not. I try to take a holistic approach in investing. One of my reasons for getting back into cryptos partially at this point is that geopolitical issues, (too many to list), can and probably will send markets of all stripes in various directions, some will be crashing while others are going up as this is the year of panic. This is truly one of the most difficult times to invest IMO. But to believe that things will work out fine and the governements have everything under control is a sure loser in most cases, IMO. As always I reserve the right to be wrong. 

 

 

If you feel that way why not buy gold?

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