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Daddy

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency

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Daddy
On 1/20/2018 at 8:43 PM, throttleplate said:

 Daddy please tell us in your opinion why retirement funds and bonds are in trouble.

As we all know central bank interest rates have been near zero or less for about 8 years now which has hurt savers. (This is the first time in 5,000 year history that interest rates are zero, which means the money itself is nearly worthless.) Wall street creatures and big corps borrowed money to buy back stocks at very low interest rates. By law pension funds must invest in "safe" investments, which usually means bonds or stocks. There are many pension funds that are not being funded by those that are supposed to be doing so. For instance, California, Illinois and several other states have unfunded liabilities relating to pension funds for government employees.  The US gov. has raided the federal employees pension fund.  Dallas County, TX.  police and fire pension fund is an example of poor management of funds which is running out of money. 

http://www.pensiontsunami.com/

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05/01/pension-fights-could-alter-how-texas-cities-hire-keep-first-responders/ 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444004704578032343661376314  

Bill Gross: Bonds Could Be 'Burned to a Crisp'

The US treasury 10yr  bonds are currently a little over 2.5 percent, it will probably be at 3.5 by the end of this year if the FED continues to increase rates. This does two things, one the value of all those bonds issued at lower rates are worth less, it also increases the amount of money paid in interest on the national debt for the US and all the other governments that are in debt, which is pretty much all of them. 

Japan and china both have been selling their bags of US treasuries, not an extreme amount but enough to get attention. Where will this lead to? I don't know. 

Most of the world has awakened to the fact that none of these countries have any plan to pay back the money borrowed and at some point the credit will stop and there will a disaster like no other before. IMO.

IMO The above issues are forcing people into alternatives such as crypto to get a decent return on their money. Of course there are many other reasons such as not trusting any government.

As for crypto coins, as I've said before I'm long term bullish on Bitcoin. The recent correction/crash is a normal market that is simply shaking out the weak hands. At the end of this decline will be buying opportunitites and I plan on loading up at the right time. I have buy orders for Bitcoin at $8,250 and $8,150. I don't know if this is too low or too high and maybe just right but my best estimate is for it to go a little lower than that, possibly as low as 6,000. But no one knows until later. I also think Bitcoin will go extremely high this year, but there again this time next year we can look back and see how these predictions go. 

To all of you I wish you the best in your investments.

Edited by Daddy
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Cgu
21 minutes ago, Daddy said:

As we all know central bank interest rates have been near zero or less for about 8 years now which has hurt savers. (This is the first time in 5,000 year history that interest rates are zero, which means the money itself is nearly worthless.)

What are you talking about! At this point I must really assume that you are not really versed in investing.  Monetary interest rates are not tight to  the purchasing power of a currency  (it is a tool for monetary policy) and if so quite the opposite is true.  Then go a buy a currency that gives you 1000% like the Zimbabwean dollar - I will rather buy a Swissy, which by the fact has negative interest rates (you have to pay  interest rates to deposit). Lets see how makes the killing in 1-2  years. Low or negative interest rates indicates that the currency is strong (you better go a read the history correctly - start with the Deutsch Mark)

Same is true to bonds! You are not only making money on the interest rate of a bond (and in bonds you can make good money!!), but in its market price. However, I mus say as of now I would not be too long on bonds, as rightly the article you refers, bonds prices will go down -as interest rates go up - and that it will be 100% sure -  So normally when you have a lead where you are 100% sure  you could invest - not so this time as the spread between short term and long term is to close .  You could have in the past, where there was an anomaly where short term interest rate was way higher than long term - these anomalies are great to make money:D.

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Cgu
14 hours ago, Thomson said:

Not all cryptocurrencies have high fees, when governments start creating their own coins and force us to use them then it will be just like the money we have already now, worthless unless you spend it.

Well is that no the purpose of money - to spend it - buying food, house, stocks, bonds, maybe love:D as we are in the Philippines ?

If cryptos could not be exchanged for something, they would be worthless. However, there is one big difference from crypto to any other papers (stock, bonds, currencies) - all papers, including currencies, are backed by assets. Not so cryptos - there is nothing behind it  - thin air. You cannot and go and check the balance sheet like you would when buying a currency (feds balance sheet) or stock. There is where I have problem with the concept. At least when something defaults you split the rest (according to the pecking order of the paper). Even when a goverment defaults - at least you can set some arrangements to get something out of it - now or in the future (first they have to liquidate all their assets like foreign reserves etc...). But what about cryptos? There is nothing behind it - I guess you will get the 0 and 1 of the chain.   Maybe the cryptos are going higher with their interest rate:D

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Daddy
12 hours ago, Cgu said:

What are you talking about! At this point I must really assume that you are not really versed in investing.  Monetary interest rates are not tight to  the purchasing power of a currency  (it is a tool for monetary policy) and if so quite the opposite is true.

I,m not trying to impress you or anyone else with my investing acumen or the lack thereof. If you don't like it just move on, that is what I do when reading your comments.

Interest rates have a HUGE impact on purchasing power of a currency. Higher interest rates raise the cost of buying real estate for example if a loan is used in purchasing the asset. If the rates get too high then purchases will decrease and probably the economy overall will slow down.

Large corporations have been buying back their stock with low interest loans which in turn causes the stock price to increase which in turn causes the upper management of said corporations to get larger bonuses which is tied to the stock valuation. The valuation of the stock increases but the income decreases  because the loan must be repaid which also causes the P/E to increase. But the main thing is the management got their bonuses. 

I would also add the central banks have artificially lowered the interest rates

There is one correction I would like to make on a previous post; "money worthless" , should have been worth less which is a different meaning.

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rep1
13 hours ago, Daddy said:

By law pension funds must invest in "safe" investments, which usually means bonds or stocks. There are many pension funds that are not being funded by those that are supposed to be doing so. For instance, California, Illinois and several other states have unfunded liabilities relating to pension funds for government employees.  The US gov. has raided the federal employees pension fund.  Dallas County, TX.  police and fire pension fund is an example of poor management of funds which is running out of money. 

Do they not use the 401k thing which allows staff to choose their own investments??

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Daddy
3 minutes ago, rep1 said:

Do they not use the 401k thing which allows staff to choose their own investments??

I don't know much about 401K except they were started by the government which should be a red flag. They are along the same line as IRA, which is also a gov sanctioned investing scheme. If it is necessary to take money out of these vehicles the taxes are horrendous.

Some people believe the gov will confiscate these at some point and roll them in order to bail out the pension funds. After all income equality is what democracy is all about right? No wait that is Socialism, Communism, Facism and maybe a couple more isms I left out.

The following was copied from WND

POLAND CONFISCATES HALF OF CITIZENS' PENSIONS

Attempt to delay European nation's looming debt crisis

Published: 09/09/2013 at 8:46 PM

NEW YORK – Quietly, as the looming possibility of a U.S. military attack on Syria dominated news internationally, the government of Poland announced a decision to confiscate half of the nation’s pension funds in an attempt to delay an impending government debt crisis.

While details remain hazy, Reuters reported Sept. 4 that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a government decision to transfer to ZUS, the government pension system, all bond investments in privately owned pension funds within the state-guaranteed system.

For now, private pensions in Poland will be allowed to keep equity investments that in the Polish state-guaranteed pension system tend to be approximately half of all private pension investments.

Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said the change will reduce Polish national debt about 8 percent of Polish Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, a move that allows the Polish government to resume another round of aggressive debt creation by borrowing in international markets, as reported by ZeroHedge.com.

By confiscating, or otherwise “nationalizing” the bonds held private retirement accounts of Polish citizens, the government – with public debt currently standing at approximately 52.7 percent of GDP – circumvents two threshold restrictions that deter the government from allowing debt to rise to over 50 percent of GDP, followed by a second deterrence that kicks in when national debt hits 55 percent of GDP.

Reuters reported that by shifting bonds held in private retirement accounts into ZUS, the government can book those assets on the state balance sheet to offset public debt, giving the government more scope to borrow and spend.

As is the case with other nations in the European Union, Poland, faced with slowing economic growth, a grim job situation and declining tax revenues, has been forced to borrow to maintain the nation’s large social welfare system without imposing austerity measures.

International private investment advisers reacted with shock and dismay.

The reform is “a decimation of the [private pension fund] system to open up fiscal space for an easier life now for the government,” Peter Attard Montalto of Nomura Securities told Reuters. “The government has an odd definition of private property given its claims this is not nationalization.”

 

Private retirement accounts in Poland hold assets worth about 20 percent of Polish economic output and are among the biggest investors on the Warsaw bourse.

How the move will affect many international investment firms remains uncertain, but the Polish private pension market includes many well known firms such as ING, Aviva, Axa, Generali and Allianz.

Reuters further reported Polish government officials have tried to reinsure private retirement investors, saying the overhaul avoids the more radical options of taking both bond and equity assets away from the private retirement founds outright, in a more comprehensive government confiscation.

Poland’s private pension until now has been a hybrid system in which mandatory contributions that are made into both the state pension vehicle, ZUS, and the private funds that are collectively known by the Polish acronym OFE.

Although Poland is in the EU, it continues to utilize the zloty as the national currency, not the Euro.

Poland’s move follows a similar move by the Mediterranean island-nation of Cyprus in March when the government confiscated 10 percent of all bank accounts. Cyprus sought to raise 6 billion euros to meet a condition set by international bankers, including the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, as a condition of finalizing a proposed Eurozone bail-out.

In November 2012, WND reported the Obama administration was exploring a creative way to finance continuing trillion-dollar annual federal budget deficits by forcing private citizens holding IRA and 401(k) accounts to buy Treasury bonds.

WND report two years earlier that the U.S. Department of Labor and the Treasury Department held joint hearings on whether government lifetime annuity options funded by U.S. Treasury debt should be required for private retirement accounts, including IRAs and 401(k) plans.


Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/government-confiscates-half-of-citizens-pensions/#wWpXeKmFyGEHXSrA.99

 

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Cgu
32 minutes ago, Daddy said:

Higher interest rates raise the cost of buying real estate

Only if leverage it. The higher the interest rate the lower the price of the  fix asset. Properties (fix assets) behave like long term bonds, so high rates, low prices - like a 30year bonds, where you can disregard any interest rates, as they are discounted to zero.

Loan is a choice of the buyer of financing the asset and does not influence the purchasing power of the currency - you still get same amount of something.

36 minutes ago, Daddy said:

nterest rates have a HUGE impact on purchasing power of a currency. Higher interest rates raise the cost of buying real estate

As I said - not directly, but you can deduct that a low interest rate indicates a strong currency (and therefore a high puchasing power)

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Daddy
31 minutes ago, Cgu said:
1 hour ago, Daddy said:

Higher interest rates raise the cost of buying real estate

Only if leverage it. The higher the interest rate the lower the price of the  fix asset. Properties (fix assets) behave like long term bonds, so high rates, low prices - like a 30year bonds, where you can disregard any interest rates, as they are discounted to zero.

Had you quoted the entire sentence it would have clarified what I was saying. However that is not conducive to having an argument.

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Daddy

In an effort to get back on topic, Bitcoin is $10,200 range at the moment. Most altcoins are bleeding out.   

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Daddy

An interesting article from Hacked.com

Get Trading Recommendations and Read Analysis on Hacked.com for just $39 per month.
 

Dan Schulman, chief executive of PayPal, talks with bitcoin pioneer Wences Cesares about bitcoin, blockchain and fintech in a Facebook interview. Casares, a serial entrepreneur, has launched startups across South America and the United States, not the least of which is bitcoin wallet startup Xapo, which he currently leads. Cesares is also a member of the PayPal board. Schulman touts Cesares as one of the foremost authorities globally on bitcoin and blockchain.

Bitcoin & Blockchain Changing the World

Schulman pointed to the bitcoin price, which at the time of the interview was trading at $14,800, clairvoyantly predicting that the price could change even as he spoke. Bitcoin and blockchain have captured people’s attention because they view it as an “interesting experiment,” said Cesares. “If it works out, it could change the world more than the internet changed it,” he added.

Cesares warned, however, that given the nature of an experiment, bitcoin and blockchain “could also fail.” He gives the bitcoin and blockchain experiment a 20% chance — at least — of failure. He gave key investment advice, recommending that people don’t own more of the cryptocurrency than they can afford to lose.

But after the warning, Cesares provided a silver lining, saying there’s greater than a 50% chance that the bitcoin and blockchain experiment will succeed. But industry participants must be patient, as it will take anywhere from five years to a decade before that success is solidified.

In a successful experiment, he pointed to a different world and “concrete economic consequences,” saying “one bitcoin is going to be worth $1 million. So, most of the world is going to wish they had bought it at $14,000 or $20,000” the risk notwithstanding and putting today’s bitcoin price declines in perspective.

Bitcoin Believer

Argentinian-born Cesares has distinct memories from his childhood of his family losing everything, thrice. He characterizes those memories as “emotional” and “social” rather than economic, and points to the Argentinian government as having triggered events that led to the fallout — hyperinflation, for instance. It was two steps forward and three steps back for his family as a result of government activity, even confiscating bank accounts.

His childhood experience, coupled with an awareness of the world’s unbanked citizens without the luxury of the US dollar, seems to have shaped his belief in bitcoin. “It was the first time that I could see technology solving that problem for good,” he said. As a result, he’s pledged the rest of his career and is staking his reputation on it. He is pulling for the bitcoin experiment to succeed because if it does, we’ll have a much better world than we have today, he said.

Calling Out Ignorance

While it may be fashionable to do so, for someone to draw a distinction between bitcoin and the underlying protocol, saying they have an interest in blockchain but not bitcoin, shows “ignorance for how the system works,” Cesares said, likening the comparison to the web and the internet. “Blockchain doesn’t exist without bitcoin,” he said. It wasn’t till January 2009 that the blockchain “came to life” because that’s when we could trust the integrity of data without knowing hardware, software or jurisdiction because it doesn’t matter. With blockchain, there are no counterparties.

“If you were to remove the bitcoin, miners would disappear and so would the blockchain,” said Cesares.

As for the future of altcoins, he reminded PayPal’s Schulman that it’s an experiment, one whose outcome no one knows. Cesares also predicts a single blockchain for value, with the exception of certain use cases that merit a different blockchain, similar to how there’s only one internet. He predicts that the most likely blockchain will be bitcoin, which hasn’t suffered any hacks, but he admits that his prediction is highly speculative.

Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

As for use cases of the blockchain beyond cryptocurrencies, Cesares suggests that the sky’s the limit, or people’s creativity is the limit in terms of use cases separate from value. He envisions a world where bitcoin is a global and non-political standard of value and settlement, so that future generations reflect back on traditional exchange rates as nostalgic. He sees a world where bitcoin wins whether or not Wall Street or Silicon Valley venture capitalists believe.

As for the bitcoin and blockchain grand experiment, signs of success would be more of what we have been seeing for the past nine years for the next nine years. “Protocols have their own timing, a much longer time horizon than companies have,” Cesares said.

Failure, meanwhile, could be the result of various scenarios. “The main way in which bitcoin could fail is if we begin to put into bitcoin money we cannot afford to lose,” he concluded. In other words, don’t put your kid’s college fund or retirement savings into bitcoin.

The Facebook Live broadcast aired on Jan. 11. Schulman also used the live platform to announce that the PayPal community from the first time over the holidays raised more than $1 billion in charitable donations globally.

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Daddy

This is great news for those of us that like to buy low and sell high. Also full of BS.

Ripped from SUN

This article is FUD, (fear, unbelief and doubt).
GAME'S UP? 

Panicky Bitcoin investors struggle to withdraw cash from money exchanges as they look to ‘safe’ gold investments amid fears of cryptocurrency collapse

The cryptocurrency's value has fallen by around 40 per cent to £8,000 in just one month

By Jay Akbar
22nd January 2018, 12:00 pm
Updated: 22nd January 2018, 5:03 pm

THERE are mounting fears that Bitcoin investors will struggle to get their cash out after the cryptocurrency's value fell 40 per cent in a single month.

Many are looking to put their money in gold instead, with some European gold traders reporting a "five fold increase" in demand amid fears Bitcoin could collapse entirely

 
Bitcoin owners are flocking to invest in gold amid fears the cryptocurrency may collapse

But it could be bad news for investors tied up in Bitconnect who fear they will lose their money after the controversial trader announced it was shutting down.

It assured customers they would be able to withdraw at a "recent exchange rate" but "continuous cyber-attacks" have prevented them from doing so, Fortune reports.

Concerned investors have since taken to social media to complain they fear losing anything from a few thousand dollars to their entire "family savings".

Adding to fears, some panicked investors have reportedly been tricked into handing over the contents of their cryptocurrency wallets by scammers presenting themselves as Bitconnect "customer support".

 
REUTERS
3
Many bitcoin investors report having difficulty in withdrawing their money before the currency collapses

Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar has warned of an impending "epic crash" which could slash 90 per cent off Bitcoin, currently valued at around £8,300.

He told CNBC the cryptocurrency's value could fall to between $1,000 (£718) and $3,000 (£2,154) over the next year.

This uncertainty is driving Bitcoin owners to invest in the more reliable gold, according to Daniel Marburger, director of Coininvest.

He told the Times how he sold 30kg of gold worth around £1million on "one crazy day" - January 16.

 
 
 
Play Video
CEO of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, explains how he sees the future for his cryptocurrency and its rival Bitcoin
Gold traders have been inundated with requests from people wanting to invest in the more reliable precious metal instead

Marburger added: "It is an unprecedented time and shows the sway from bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies back to a solid, robust investment in these uncertain times."

Investors are believed to mostly be exchanging their Bitcoins for sovereign coins of gold Britannia, one ounce of which is worth around £,1000.

The largely untraceable Bitcoins are beneficial to criminals who can use them to buy drugs and weapons on online black markets on "The Dark Web".

They are less useful for everyday consumers who cannot buy goods or, say, invest in properties using the cryptocurrency.

 

BIT VOLATILE

Today's bitcoin rate in USD and GBP and latest on the cryptocurrency

A BIT LIKE BITCOIN

 Iota is one of the newer cryptocurrencies that is fast gaining in value

ONLINE BANKING

Monero price and how to buy – how much is the cryptocurrency worth?

VIRTUAL VERGE

What is the new cryptocurrency Verge and where can you buy it?
 
 

nintchdbpict0003701361446-e1512647636230

REIGNING CATS

Ethereum price and how to buy - and what is the cat currency CryptoKitties?

BITCOIN'S BUDDING BROTHER

 Litecoin price, how to buy it and how it compares to Bitcoin
 
 
 

Other gold merchants including Goldcore reported similar trends.

Its founder Mark O'Byrne said: "They [the bitcoin sellers] told us they were concerned that the massive price appreciation was unsustainable and they got nervous about it."

One in three British millennials will have invested in a cryptocurrency by 2020, according to the London Block Exchange.

This article from SUN

 

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Cgu
6 hours ago, Daddy said:

If you were to remove the bitcoin, miners would disappear and so would the blockchain,” said Cesares.

I think Blockchain is the real value here and will drive innovations. BitCoin  is one application, but it bitcoin is removed, blockchain will still be here. I would rather compare bitcoin of a website that is  enabled by http protocol, so bitcoin is enabled by blockchain 

Edited by Cgu

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rep1
10 hours ago, Daddy said:

In an effort to get back on topic, Bitcoin is $10,200 range at the moment. Most altcoins are bleeding out.   

ETH only fell by 25%!

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Contango
7 hours ago, rep1 said:

ETH only fell by 25%!

ETH is holding up well, XRP looking at a double bottom or new low and BTC selling to fresh lows, at this point in the crash/correction i would expect to see some exchanges come under pressure, some of the less risk adverse exchanges may well go under...then the real selling would begin.

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Daddy
2 hours ago, Contango said:

ETH is holding up well, XRP looking at a double bottom or new low and BTC selling to fresh lows, at this point in the crash/correction i would expect to see some exchanges come under pressure, some of the less risk adverse exchanges may well go under...then the real selling would begin.

You are right ETH has been holding up better than the others. Maybe its strength is warranted, I don't know but interesting. 

I have been trying to do the technical analysis on Coinigy but still not enough clear signals as to which way this thing is going. There has been a lot of support above $10,000 level for BTC but the volume is not as strong as it was so maybe it will go lower still. From my latest attempt at the technical it looks like 7200 USD could be another support level....but I'm an amateur at charting so take that with a grain of salt.

I would like to know your insight as to why the exchanges might go under. I don't see a correlation except their fees might be somewhat less income for them.

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