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A weekly chart of the S&P 500 from 1993 with two different studies. You can decide what is up.

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A weekly chart of the S&P 500 from 1993 with two different studies. You can decide what is up.

 

Love, I don't get it, sorry. The market today is higher than 1993? Maybe, but look at inflation. Spiking! Don't believe the official manipulated numbers.

 

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The problem is not stocks now, it is cash.

 

Dow target is around 9,000 end of April/May, we are around 8,000 now.

 

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Then I will be a seller. The market for the most part is where it was on the Third. I cannot see us not testing the lows again. But when? who knows not me. It would be a V recovery and that seems unlikely. Remember we just had a five year bull. lets do it again. Right now I'm buying real estate. Or I want to. Don't rent buy a house! Would love to take some of my 401k and buy the American dream. It's on sale. I feel The America's are going to go on a bull run of their own and Africa.

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Then I will be a seller. The market for the most part is where it was on the Third. I cannot see us not testing the lows again. But when? who knows not me. It would be a V recovery and that seems unlikely. Remember we just had a five year bull. lets do it again. Right now I'm buying real estate. Or I want to. Don't rent buy a house! Would love to take some of my 401k and buy the American dream. It's on sale. I feel The America's are going to go on a bull run of their own and Africa.

 

 

Wow, watch out!

 

That bull will take you on it's horns so fast.

 

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musicman666
Then I will be a seller. The market for the most part is where it was on the Third. I cannot see us not testing the lows again. But when? who knows not me. It would be a V recovery and that seems unlikely. Remember we just had a five year bull. lets do it again. Right now I'm buying real estate. Or I want to. Don't rent buy a house! Would love to take some of my 401k and buy the American dream. It's on sale. I feel The America's are going to go on a bull run of their own and Africa.
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thebob

In this thread there are a lot of suggestions, but very few people give insight as to why they are making these decisions.

 

Markets don't operate in a vacuum, and they don't know anything about history either.

 

If you had perfect information about every aspect of the global economy, and a perfect computer to analyze that data, you still would not be able to forecast future movements.

 

The wonderful thing about the markets is that they are driven by human perceptions. If we are confident we buy markets go up.

 

So I suggest that watching people is more important than watching financial indicators.

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In this thread there are a lot of suggestions, but very few people give insight as to why they are making these decisions.

 

Markets don't operate in a vacuum, and they don't know anything about history either.

 

If you had perfect information about every aspect of the global economy, and a perfect computer to analyze that data, you still would not be able to forecast future movements.

 

The wonderful thing about the markets is that they are driven by human perceptions. If we are confident we buy markets go up.

 

So I suggest that watching people is more important than watching financial indicators.

 

 

You made some decisions which you want to justify. That's fine and you can do whatever you want.

 

BUT, if you look at history you will find the one thing you need to know:

 

 

PRINTING BILLIONS AND TRILLIONS OF PAPER MONEY WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION.

 

 

 

B)

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thebob
You made some decisions which you want to justify. That's fine and you can do whatever you want.

 

BUT, if you look at history you will find the one thing you need to know:

 

 

PRINTING BILLIONS AND TRILLIONS OF PAPER MONEY WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION.

 

 

 

B)

 

Not sure what you mean by the decisions I made that I want to justify.

 

We have been printing Billions and Trillions of paper money for decades. That was all hunky dory until some people became a little too imaginative with selling shady investments.

 

History can show what happens in certain circumstances, but we can't assume that those outcomes are inevitable or will be repeated.

 

We have a whole new world now.

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Wow, watch out!

 

That bull will take you on it's horns so fast.

 

.

On CNBC's fast money yesterday one of them said nobody believes this rally, so it will continue. And look at today's nice run. Sold some more of my company stock (up 6% today) into a bond fund pimco that's up 2.37% so far this year. Would like to open a trading account soon.

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On CNBC's fast money yesterday one of them said nobody believes this rally, so it will continue. And look at today's nice run. Sold some more of my company stock (up 6% today) into a bond fund pimco that's up 2.37% so far this year. Would like to open a trading account soon.

 

 

OK, this is the first time I would recommend some profit taking during next week. When CNBC gets bullish, take profits.

 

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OK, this is the first time I would recommend some profit taking during next week. When CNBC gets bullish, take profits.

 

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This is a show of traders and not the usual pundits that come on. It's on at 2pm west coast. "Guy" the fellow on the show, said back when the rally first started that he would be bullish at sp500 740 so he's not a johnny come lately. I've got myself to almost even for the year. Was 100% stocks now about 40% stocks.

 

 

Nobody seems to believe this rally including me.

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Nobody seems to believe this rally including me.

 

 

Earl, I don't quite and never will understand such saying. I recommended buying here on this forum at 688 SP and recommend selling at 860 and higher. Why? Maybe because i don't listen to other people or watch CNBC/CNN.

 

This is not your typical rally, it is asset allocation as being in cash is probably the worst you can do over the next few years. As to this "rally". We can and most likely will see 9,000 or even 11,000 points in the DOW (this year) because nobody believes it. What will you say then?

 

Follow price action, that's all what counts, look for low risk entries, don't look for a bottom or a top, let the price play itself out and if everybody is very bearish/bullish but the price action is slow and doesn't follow through, then you know that you have a good setup.

 

I actually believe that the people in the media are getting paid for manipulating us, always keep that in mid.

 

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I know everybody hates me that I am right but selling above 860 S&P looks like I am a genius. Let's see how it goes over the next days. Patience.

 

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breakfast

We'll see. I've adopted the position that peak oil and trillions of stimuli go nicely for oil, and energy should be dragged up with it. I'll be adding in as the year goes on.

 

My superannuation is in a cash only holding pattern for now. That's saved me losing anything in Black October onwards, but I gained nothing in March or April except my own contributions. I'm waiting for the big fall, then the brakes come off.

 

Inflation may well be a harbinger of hyperinflation. Cash is "not worth a continental" in that scenario. With all the Keynsian policy going around, forget about helicopters. There may be B52s carpet bombing greenbacks over the next few years (if Obama's presidency survives, and his administration continues to pursue the print money policy).

 

I would be surprised if there was no such calamitous fall in Q2-3 this year and we went straight into inflation. So I'm waiting for now.

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USMC-Retired
We'll see. I've adopted the position that peak oil and trillions of stimuli go nicely for oil, and energy should be dragged up with it. I'll be adding in as the year goes on.

 

My superannuation is in a cash only holding pattern for now. That's saved me losing anything in Black October onwards, but I gained nothing in March or April except my own contributions. I'm waiting for the big fall, then the brakes come off.

 

Inflation may well be a harbinger of hyperinflation. Cash is "not worth a continental" in that scenario. With all the Keynsian policy going around, forget about helicopters. There may be B52s carpet bombing greenbacks over the next few years (if Obama's presidency survives, and his administration continues to pursue the print money policy).

 

I would be surprised if there was no such calamitous fall in Q2-3 this year and we went straight into inflation. So I'm waiting for now.

 

This really has become more of a dooms day post. People predicting these failures. I think we are hovering around the bottom of the market with alot of the companies. At some point assets of these companies begin to be worth more then the stock. So the bottom is close. The problem lies with the profitability of the products they are selling. Currently the market has seemed to rise and and fall slightly it has maintained this level for a few months now. I do not believe the markets can tumble at a rate which we have seen in the past. However it still may not have hit bottom.

 

History says what the current US administration is doing does not work and could prolong the recession. The recession is a form of correction and any correction takes time. I think any commodity investment is wise compared to keeping cash. I also think that SP500 stocks are not a bad buy reasons stated above. However all currencies are vulnerable so i would think that this could be a bad investment in the long term. Oil investments are not a bad idea or any form of energy investment.

 

Will the collapse of the dollar happen as has been predicted. No. It may devalue a little and we have seen that over the past few months against the Euro. However to much is riding this as the safety net. China and Japan along with a few others could not afford this to happen. Not yet anyways. If they tried to flood the market and devalue the dollar the US may just not honor this debt. Then we are in a huge huge mess. You think inflation or hyperinflation. Nope we are talking monetary collapse world wide. So as for the dollar not a solid investment however not bad just to stay pat. Right not it is like black jack and you have 16 and the dealer has a 7 up. Odds are about equal if you just stay pat.

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