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I pointed this out in a few different topics but as a courtesy to members here I will do it again.

 

1. The recession and stock market have nothing to do with each other, meaning if we are in a recession doesn't mean that the stock market cannot go higher.

 

2. The low set on March 11 was probably a very long term cycle low. It is VERY unlikely that this low in the US markets will EVER be taken out again in the future. 9/11, 2001 plus 911 days plus 911 days plus 911 days equals to March 11, 2009, bottom was 666 in the S&P 500 future.

 

Believe it or not.

 

 

3. We will sooner or later enter a hyperinflation scenario with the effect that paper money will has a value of close to 0.

 

 

Solutions: Stock market investing with your 401K money or commodities (gold, silver, etc), food will be scarce

 

I would not recommend buying gold bullions as they are in danger of getting confiscated, buy coins which are or were a legal tender.

 

.

 

 

.

Edited by scianna54
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Alan S

Whilst you may be correct, I have taken a diferent approach.

 

I am in the fortunate position that my income exceeds expenditure, have no debts and modest savings. Those savings were converted to cash many months ago, and that is how they will remain.

 

Will they decrease in actual value? Who knows.

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USMC-Retired

The simple law of supply and demand. That is the reason to stay clear of gold for long term. As we continue this down cycle people will pull the money and place in gold or other commodities. Thus creating a bubble when they feel other markets are safe will try and sell. This will create the down cycle of gold prices. So short term if you can time the bubble right you can make a fortune. However I think you missed the great gold rise and it may not rise high enough now to make that trade.

 

Soon the biggest market is going to be real estate. As more and more things are being sold off real estate prices have retracted to 1995 prices. This bubble will also correct its self.

 

If you believe in theories the SP 500 stocks on average have returned 7% since the great depression. So buying now in the S&P mutual fund may not be a bad deal. However scary.

 

The biggest thing with gold is supply and demand. Currently the demand is high and selling is low. This will reverse it self.

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thebob
I pointed this out in a few different topics but as a courtesy to members here I will do it again.

 

1. The recession and stock market have nothing to do with each other, meaning if we are in a recession doesn't mean that the stock market cannot go higher.

 

2. The low set on March 11 was probably a very long term cycle low. It is VERY unlikely that this low in the US markets will EVER be taken out again in the future. 9/11, 2001 plus 911 days plus 911 days plus 911 days equals to March 11, 2009, bottom was 666 in the S&P 500 future.

 

Believe it or not.

 

 

3. We will sooner or later enter a hyperinflation scenario with the effect that paper money will has a value of close to 0.

 

 

Solutions: Stock market investing with your 401K money or commodities (gold, silver, etc), food will be scarce

 

I would not recommend buying gold bullions as they are in danger of getting confiscated, buy coins which are or were a legal tender.

 

.

 

 

.

 

The problem is quantitive easing, which is a fancy word for printing money. As there is more money in the market the value of the money goes down. This is what inflation is.

 

If the US stock market goes up 10% a year but the dollar falls 15% you have lost.

 

They can't print more gold it is a finite resource that is strategically necessary. It will increase in value.

 

The only real hedge against inflation will be productive farmland! People always have to eat!

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The simple law of supply and demand. That is the reason to stay clear of gold for long term. As we continue this down cycle people will pull the money and place in gold or other commodities. Thus creating a bubble when they feel other markets are safe will try and sell. This will create the down cycle of gold prices. So short term if you can time the bubble right you can make a fortune. However I think you missed the great gold rise and it may not rise high enough now to make that trade.

 

Soon the biggest market is going to be real estate. As more and more things are being sold off real estate prices have retracted to 1995 prices. This bubble will also correct its self.

 

If you believe in theories the SP 500 stocks on average have returned 7% since the great depression. So buying now in the S&P mutual fund may not be a bad deal. However scary.

 

The biggest thing with gold is supply and demand. Currently the demand is high and selling is low. This will reverse it self.

 

Often people put their mouth where their money is.

 

Looks like a winner here.

 

.

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USMC-Retired

In 1979 the price of gold reached 875 dollars. This was a inflated rise and caused by the Hunt brothers. My parent had millions of dollars in the gold market during this period. The Hunt Brothers failed to corner the silver market and the markers came do. The gold crashed on a Thursday. It lost 40% of its value in one day. This is an example of the supply and demand coming apart at the heals. So if I am sour on gold I have several million reasons to be. I believe it is going to correct to a true value somewhere around 700 to 800 dollars an ounce. As it already starting tapper off to from the high points.

 

I still am investing in the stocks as I feel they are a bargain right now. The SP 500 have a steady return over the long haul so no I have moved zero of my money out though I lost 17% on my invested total. I have 22 more years before I can pull this money out of a Roth IRA so it makes zero sense to panic. I just continue to contribute as I had in the past and allow the market to take shape.

 

Housing and Land. That is a commodity that can not be reproduced or found. There is no infinitive supply of land. With the current cost of land and housing in the US investing in land or property has a huge upside. Houses have lost upwards of 50% of their value in some areas. This trend should correct its self.

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You are making the mistake believing that all can be compared to the past and that the government will fix it. We are basically at the last stage of capitalism as we know it. Capitalism lives off trust in capital markets, strong currencies, consumer consumption, low inflation. I also believe that capitalism lives off a balance of rich and poor.

 

The last stage of capitalism started when consumer spending was fueled by rising real estate prices and rising government debt.

 

Rising consumer debt and greed at banks/insurance companies (taking risk at any price)/big corporations (outsourcing to China) eventually couldn't sustain itself anymore, very like a Ponzi scheme.

 

Now the governments are replacing consumer spending with government spending, debt strikken banks and companies will get money infusions, the credit market will be manipulated with an endless flow of money at 0 %, the government is buying it's own debt. Consumers are scaling back on their spending, they don't buy new cars anymore, afraid that they won't be able to buy food due to rising food prices. Credit markets for consumers are dried out as banks are trying to overcompensate their wrongdoing. On top of that many lose their jobs or are in danger of doing so. Again, the government is taking it into it's hands and creating special mortgage programs for "bankrupt" potential home buyers and buying "poisened debt" by printing more money.

 

I don't really want to go any further but look at reality and look forward and not back.

 

We don't have a democracy anymore because the fight against terrorism has armed/empowered the state and not the people, we don't have capitalism anymore because the government decided to regulate everything and take over banks/credit markets, money supply. The biggest poison for a currency to fail is when the government takes control of the money markets.

 

The US$$ will fail and slump into the abyss. Hyperinflation, mass unemployment, unrest, dadada, the whole nine yards.

 

You buy your land, USMC-retired.

 

.

Edited by scianna54
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USMC-Retired

I would buy land yet I am currently strapped. Maybe Seattle could loan me a few dollars.

 

I am one who believes that studying the past is a gauge for the future. I understand your points. We are moving in a federalist direction thus causing what you are saying. I ask though what you are saying has it happen before? Without the markets and consumer eventually correcting themselves. Not in the US it has never happen. So I will just stay with what the past has held true. Though both are a speculative approach.

Edited by USMC-Retired
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I would buy land yet I am currently strapped. Maybe Seattle could loan me a few dollars.

 

I am one who believes that studying the past is a gauge for the future. I understand your points. We are moving in a federalist direction thus causing what you are saying. I ask though what you are saying has it happen before? Without the markets and consumer eventually correcting themselves. Not in the US it has never happen. So I will just stay with what the past has hold true. Though both are a speculative approach.

 

 

 

I am/was a banker and I studied all of that stuff for many years at University. There is no way out, we are so deep in the trouble, soon nobody will buy US government debts anymore (the Chinese stopped) other than the US government and the last one in line will realize that we are standing at the beginning of the tunnel.

 

I will buy land, sure, when people are begging me to take it from them for a few silver dollars so they can buy food.

 

.

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USMC-Retired
I am/was a banker and I studied all of that stuff for many years at University. There is no way out, we are so deep in the trouble, soon nobody will buy US government debts anymore (the Chinese stopped) other than the US government and the last one in line will realize that we are standing at the beginning of the tunnel.

 

I will buy land, sure, when people are begging me to take it from them for a few silver dollars so they can buy food.

 

.

 

 

I will stick to my guns and hope (though hope has no action and accomplishes nothing) that you are totally wrong. This is because history bares me out. Though you have some very valid points.

 

Though scianna I really believe by reading your posts you are a survivalist. You bear that in many of your posts. Having little faith or trust in government as a whole. Right now who could blame anyone. Though I think more long term and history.

Edited by USMC-Retired
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I pointed this out in a few different topics but as a courtesy to members here I will do it again.

 

1. The recession and stock market have nothing to do with each other, meaning if we are in a recession doesn't mean that the stock market cannot go higher.

 

2. The low set on March 11 was probably a very long term cycle low. It is VERY unlikely that this low in the US markets will EVER be taken out again in the future. 9/11, 2001 plus 911 days plus 911 days plus 911 days equals to March 11, 2009, bottom was 666 in the S&P 500 future.

 

Believe it or not.

 

 

3. We will sooner or later enter a hyperinflation scenario with the effect that paper money will has a value of close to 0.

 

 

Solutions: Stock market investing with your 401K money or commodities (gold, silver, etc), food will be scarce

 

I would not recommend buying gold bullions as they are in danger of getting confiscated, buy coins which are or were a legal tender.

 

.

 

 

.

I'm sorry but I can't agree with a thing you say. Numerology is fun but means nadda.

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Effervescent
You are making the mistake believing that all can be compared to the past and that the government will fix it. We are basically at the last stage of capitalism as we know it. Capitalism lives off trust in capital markets, strong currencies, consumer consumption, low inflation. I also believe that capitalism lives off a balance of rich and poor.

 

The last stage of capitalism started when consumer spending was fueled by rising real estate prices and rising government debt.

 

Rising consumer debt and greed at banks/insurance companies (taking risk at any price)/big corporations (outsourcing to China) eventually couldn't sustain itself anymore, very like a Ponzi scheme.

 

Now the governments are replacing consumer spending with government spending, debt strikken banks and companies will get money infusions, the credit market will be manipulated with an endless flow of money at 0 %, the government is buying it's own debt. Consumers are scaling back on their spending, they don't buy new cars anymore, afraid that they won't be able to buy food due to rising food prices. Credit markets for consumers are dried out as banks are trying to overcompensate their wrongdoing. On top of that many lose their jobs or are in danger of doing so. Again, the government is taking it into it's hands and creating special mortgage programs for "bankrupt" potential home buyers and buying "poisened debt" by printing more money.

 

I don't really want to go any further but look at reality and look forward and not back.

 

We don't have a democracy anymore because the fight against terrorism has armed/empowered the state and not the people, we don't have capitalism anymore because the government decided to regulate everything and take over banks/credit markets, money supply. The biggest poison for a currency to fail is when the government takes control of the money markets.

 

The US$$ will fail and slump into the abyss. Hyperinflation, mass unemployment, unrest, dadada, the whole nine yards.

 

You buy your land, USMC-retired.

 

.

 

I think part of the problem is the distribution of wealth. Never before in the US has there been such a huge gap between the rich and poor. I think the latest statistic is that the top 6% own as much as the bottom 50%. As this continues to widen it makes it much harder to convince the poor to purchase, as everything they purchase is on credit. They have much less wealth, and to get money they must borrow. The people remaining with disposable incomes are shrinking, leaving just the government and the rich left who can restart the economy. To get money the government can only print it or tax the rich, and the rich are, naturally, avoiding taxation as much as possible. Historically when difficult economic times were upon the US the richest citizens paid taxes in excess of 90%, but no one will accept this now. With no other source of funds for a government that is larger and more expensive than ever in the history of the country there is only the printing press to turn to.

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I think that USA and UK etc will experience hyper inflation some parts of Asia like the Philippines are perhaps going to get deflation or a decrease on prices.

 

China now can produce every single product the World needs. Electronics, shoes, clothes, etc etc

 

The big USA and Europe consumers are on the ropes and so what to do with all that China inventory and productive power?

 

Sell cheap to Asia.

 

I expect Laptops and other stuff to go down a lot.

 

Just look at all the Chinese cell phones in the market. 3 years ago there were none.

 

I think stocks are going to crash again after the commercial real estate crisis hits everything will bottom out after one big fall.

 

The same Banksters are still in charge and getting huge bribe monies so they will not go public on the massive fraud.

 

How big and bad is it? They are paid not to say... Once we really see it then we will see the market crash again.

 

Then I am into commodities both soft and hard, and farming, property etc.

 

Gold and silver are a given. Mining companies that survive etc

 

Crude is a long term yes but when production and the World collapses it is used less and so short term may be low.

 

Long term - once all the lies and actual World situation is revealed then oil has to go up.

 

I would hate to be in the middle of this and my back up plan is to move my elderly family out here if it gets to food shortages and massive anger etc.

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I am/was a banker and I studied all of that stuff for many years at University. There is no way out, we are so deep in the trouble, soon nobody will buy US government debts anymore (the Chinese stopped) other than the US government and the last one in line will realize that we are standing at the beginning of the tunnel.

 

I will buy land, sure, when people are begging me to take it from them for a few silver dollars so they can buy food.

 

.

 

I think this is not totally wrong and is actually under estimating the massive dangers ahead.

 

Take a poor population like the Philippines and make it poor.

 

Many will shrug and say 'I have been poor all my life' as they reach for a banana.

 

Take the middle class in the States. Remove another 50% of their stocks, 50% more off the house.

 

Food shortages due to panic and debt, gun abundance. A life time of watching the 'War on terror and other violence on TV'

 

I would not be in the States now or from this point on and being patriotic is a fixed idea and perhaps not the best thing for your kids.

 

If it gets out of control and martial law is enacted - it is not 'Bob' the local friendly sheriff that you are dealing with but UN troops from other countries who perhaps don't like the American actions in their own country.

 

And they may be especially angry when they see the size of your house and TV compared with theirs...

 

Why did Bush Snr, Clinton, and bumbling Bush work so hard on enlarging their martial law powers??? So to not use them?

 

Just do a search for Lyndon LaRouche, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, William K. Black on Youtube to see the Doom experts.

 

Are they nuts?

 

Learn about the Banksters

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQ4JXW_ErXQ

 

Learn about Martial Law

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of5kPovnZKg

 

Scare yourself with this guys point of view!!

Where should americans flee to escape Martial Law?

 

 

Look what happens when you just search 'economy' on youtube.

 

1st result - watch it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zZ6qNWeGw

 

And these two guys Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Dr. Mandelbrot are genius in my book

Edited by peter35
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Effervescent

Don't panic. All of this has happened before, and unless a utopian system is devised this will all happen again. Fiat currencies have always failed. Not a single one has ever lasted the test of time. Empires have always ended. Every empire eventually overextends itself and collapses.

 

The important thing is that people still survived. There was often difficult transitional periods, but some sense of order always returns. Most often the end of an Empire is actually a good thing. Eventually all economic and political systems become so corrupt and burdened that their demise is a relief for the population. It is the abundance of guns that gives me hope for America. No matter what the government does the populance has the ability to fight. The founding fathers of the US were geniuses and they predicted all of this. They gave the citizens the only defence possible to prevent a totaltarian state. They knew history, sadly much better than most today, and correctly foresaw what was to come and prepared the people for it. Even if most living today don't realize it. The gun crime in the US is a small price to pay compared to having a defenceless population at the mercy of a military.

 

The people who most fear change are the wealthy. They are the ones who's lifestyles are most likely to be affected. The rich spend their time hoarding and protecting wealth to maintain a certain lifestyle. Many of us here could probably be included in this group at least to an extent. I do not mean to say that many have earned that wealth unfairly or in an undeserving way, but of course many in the country have not. The only people who I personally feel any compassion for are those that have worked diligently for years, often choosing not to make purchases and instead save, to build up a level of wealth only to see it evaporate.

 

"...and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

--United States Declaration of Independence

 

Relax, don't panic and do what you can to prepare as best you can. If you're American the founders of your country prepared you far better than any others. They spelled it out to you in detail and made preparations for you to correct the inevitable problem they saw coming. As a neighbour of the US I feel much safer knowing the populance there is armed. Read American history and you will see that the war of independence was also fought to escape British central banks that were draining the colonies. They will fight it again, perhaps not with guns hopefully diplomacy can prevail, just as predicted by the founders. Everyone should take the time to read what I feel is perhaps the most humanitarian document ever penned.

Edited by Effervescent
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