Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Headshot

Will China Invade North Korea?

Recommended Posts

Headshot

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-invade-north-korea-nuclear-161803948.html

Will China Invade North Korea and Take Its Nuclear Facilities?

Newsweek Oriana Skylar Mastro

Newsweek Thu, Sep 14 9:18 AM PDT

On the surface, China’s North Korea policy seems relatively consistent. China is keen to demonstrate that it is cooperating with international efforts to rein in North Korea, including allowing the passage of various U.N. Security Council sanctions on the regime.

But China has also been unwilling to push the Kim regime as much as the United States wants, primarily for fear of provoking reckless behavior on the part of Kim Jong Un, as well as the loss of any influence China has left.

However, if one looks a bit deeper, China’s North Korea strategy is evolving in subtle and significant ways.

1. China is no longer wedded to the preservation of the Kim regime.

Over the past three years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been surprisingly vocal in support of Korean reunification in the long term—though through a gradual, incremental peace—even if it entails the demise of North Korea as a sovereign state. Polls suggest that Chinese public opinion generally supports moving away from North Korea.

2. Chinese interests in a Korea contingency have expanded beyond concerns about a refugee spillover to include nuclear security.

Chinese military capabilities have improved greatly over the past 10 years, and the missions the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may be involved in have expanded in tandem. Training, equipment, exercises and aspects of the reorganization suggest contingency plans are likely in place for a mission to secure North Korean nuclear weapons and fissile material.

Chinese leaders may intervene to seize North Korean nuclear facilities to prevent North Korean use or the U.S., Japan or South Korea from striking them, which could result in cross-border contamination.

3. China is unlikely to fight to protect the Kim regime, and its defense and political officials do not expect to be invited to intervene.

Most recognize that Chinese forces may even be opposed by North Korean forces but will at least have an advantage because Kim will orient his forces south to deal with U.S. and South Korean forces.

4. The PLA may move into North Korean territory to ensure a degree of control over the conflict and its outcome.

China will need to be involved in any contingency on the peninsula to ensure that Korea reunifies on terms favorable to Beijing. The last thing China wants is North Korean instability or an outcome that strengthens the U.S. role in the region. However, Beijing is more likely to pressure Pyongyang and risk instability if it believes it stands to benefit regardless of how North Korea responds.

5. Explicit planning for contingencies on the Korean peninsula is still too sensitive for China.

However, the United States and China could begin coordination efforts indirectly, such as through civilian training or technical exchanges on nuclear issues, or through supporting China’s expanded involvement in international nuclear security exercises. U.S. experts and officials could also push to observe China’s national level nuclear emergency joint exercises, such as the Shendun series.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alfred E. Neuman

Answer to the title: No, it‘s bad for business. But the saber rattling and threats is profitable.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Headshot

What China doesn't seem to realize is that if North Korea were to fail (or fall) and be united with South Korea under a South Korean government, there would be no reason for US troops to remain on the Korean Peninsula, and therefore the threat to China would actually be less rather than more. It is in China's interest to bring North Korea to their knees and force them to accept a peaceful unification with the south. It would be a win for China not only politically, but also economically. Only China can do this, since China has been the key to North Korea's survival all of these years.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RR3
34 minutes ago, Headshot said:

What China doesn't seem to realize is that if North Korea were to fail (or fall) and be united with South Korea under a South Korean government, there would be no reason for US troops to remain on the Korean Peninsula, and therefore the threat to China would actually be less rather than more. It is in China's interest to bring North Korea to their knees and force them to accept a peaceful unification with the south. It would be a win for China not only politically, but also economically. Only China can do this, since China has been the key to North Korea's survival all of these years.

Oh well. So why US troops remain in 186 countries?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Richard K

no.... China will continue to play both ends against the middle as they always have... that is how they roll..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the.lone.gunman
50 minutes ago, Headshot said:

What China doesn't seem to realize is that if North Korea were to fail (or fall) and be united with South Korea under a South Korean government, there would be no reason for US troops to remain on the Korean Peninsula, and therefore the threat to China would actually be less rather than more. It is in China's interest to bring North Korea to their knees and force them to accept a peaceful unification with the south. It would be a win for China not only politically, but also economically. Only China can do this, since China has been the key to North Korea's survival all of these years.

Further......China is building up a lot of ill will both in the region and globally. China currently has 5 nuclear neighbors, some are not so friendly. Pakistan, India, Russia, N.Korea, and the US  (Guam ) all have nuclear weapons. Sooner or later S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan may decide that the need their own nuclear deterrents. China could be surrounded by nuclear states that resent N. Korea and China's agressive and illegal actions in the South China Sea. China could be in a bit of a pickle. It doesn't matter how big their army is if their opponents have nuclear weapons.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hyaku

The import, export between countries far outweighs sabre rattling.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Commercial Banner Advertisers

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Guidelines. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue..