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The last time the market behaved like this was 1930. The crash in commodities prices look the same. We are well past levels seen in the 1973 oil crises and the dot com cash. The only comparison is the crash of 1929-1932.

 

The stock market from 1923 to 1933

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The stock market from 2001 to 2009

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Ok I wish it was not so but it is actually worse, it is happening even faster than 1929.

What to do, it is time to make money :huh:

You will have to short the market.

You can do this with ETF's

http://comguy.org/stocks/bearmarketetf.html

or with vertical spreads

 

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Jim Rogers Analyzing the Financial Armageddon pt 1/3

Jim Rogers Analyzing the Financial Armageddon pt 2/3

Jim Rogers Analyzing the Financial Armageddon pt 3/3

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I have only began studying how to trade stocks a little over a year ago.

I am starting to get the hang of it now.

 

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We will see how it goes

Here is how my list of Bear Market ETF's and how they did over the last 17 days.

A lot of my trading has been on paper now I am going to put some more real money in.

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Not a good idea to go short here when a potential turn (many cycles converge soon) is coming. Nobody knows if that's the bottom but eventually the downward spiral will end.

 

Friday was a good day for the market as he job news were really bad but the market ended up on a positive note. Many may say this happened due to short covering during the last half hour but the downward momentum was just not there on Friday.

 

Also keep in mind that 30 year support for the Dow is at 6,100 points, very close as we were at 6,400 on Friday. I am getting the feeling that professionals are starting t buy here. Many amateurs will get "killed" during the next rally, make sure it is not you.

 

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Another thing to keep in mind, when people post shorting the market on Philippines forums it could be an indication to go long.

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Another thing to keep in mind, when people post shorting the market on Philippines forums it could be an indication to go long.

 

You might be right we are overdue for a bear market rally.

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You might be right we are overdue for a bear market rally.

I've been following the market since about 2000 and the one thing I know is nobody and I mean nobody knows what's going to happen. There may be moments of clarity but dats about it. In fact if most people are saying one thing the market is bound to do the opposite.

 

I remember when the great (Pimco bond fund manager) Bill Gross said on CNBC that we're going lower, much lower, back in 2003 I believe. Well he said it near the exact bottom and we started a five year bull market. And if he can't predict.....

 

The market is full of head fakes. But you know, it sure is fun to give it a go. Good luck.

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Here is my take on things and yes, you can get back to me in 1 year and I am pretty sure that it will go somewhat similar as I state here:

 

 

The US dollar is in the final stage of an advance (against major currencies, mostly Euro) which will end over the next months. Soon it will enter an accelerated down move due to inflationary pressure (extreme money supply).

 

As all commodities AND the US stock market is valued in US dollars, a rally in both will start soon and probably last a few years. Even if commodities and the US stock market should not rally in Euro terms, due to the devaluation of the US dollar, those markets will rally.

 

As I wrote on this forum a few times already, the best way to put your money is gold and silver.

 

The bottom for the US stock market is very close.

 

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J and Sheila

:wink:

 

wonder what would happen if the media started to spread some good news. lets say the financial pages had a few success stories as headlines. or some upbeat television programming about a local successful business.

 

wouldn't it be interesting to see how a positive spin might affect people.

 

don't get me wrong. i know there is downsizing, layoffs, unemployment etc etc etc...

but i think a lot of things have to do with the medias constant display of all things tragic.

 

by refocusing the nature of the messages of every (or maybe even a few of the) blinking bleeping bits of media imput we might just change some of the overall mood. the wall street powers that be might even be a bit elated by the change.

 

 

what do you think?

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USMC-Retired
Here is my take on things and yes, you can get back to me in 1 year and I am pretty sure that it will go somewhat similar as I state here:

 

 

The US dollar is in the final stage of an advance (against major currencies, mostly Euro) which will end over the next months. Soon it will enter an accelerated down move due to inflationary pressure (extreme money supply).

 

As all commodities AND the US stock market is valued in US dollars, a rally in both will start soon and probably last a few years. Even if commodities and the US stock market should not rally in Euro terms, due to the devaluation of the US dollar, those markets will rally.

 

As I wrote on this forum a few times already, the best way to put your money is gold and silver.

 

The bottom for the US stock market is very close.

 

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The dollar will not sink to all times lows. However it may go down against a lot of currencies. Seeing the peso at 39 or Euro at 155 is not going to happen in a year. The dollar does not have a replacement. There lies the million dollar question. Unless goverments around the world decide to trade in a currency other then the dollar nothing is going to change. Thus is the reality.

 

Bob Ward brought up an interesting point of the Amero. The Amero is not a reality. Yet the US is considering (under cloak) removing the Dollar from circulation. They are going to insert a new form of US currency. (maybe still called the dollar). One economist was quoted as stating if the US were to phase the current dollar out over 1 year with diminishing returns to zero and Phase in a new it would eliminate 1/3 to 1/2 of the US debt. Thus still keeping the dollar (or new currency name) as the premier world currency. Interesting none the less.

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Markham
Bob Ward brought up an interesting point of the Amero. The Amero is not a reality. Yet the US is considering (under cloak) removing the Dollar from circulation. They are going to insert a new form of US currency. (maybe still called the dollar). One economist was quoted as stating if the US were to phase the current dollar out over 1 year with diminishing returns to zero and Phase in a new it would eliminate 1/3 to 1/2 of the US debt. Thus still keeping the dollar (or new currency name) as the premier world currency. Interesting none the less.

Ok, so who is going to pick up the tab for remaining 1/2 to 2/3 of US Debt? It won't magically disappear simply by replacing the currency, someone will have to pay. Somehow I really don't think your creditors are going to allow you to do that!

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broden
Ok, so who is going to pick up the tab for remaining 1/2 to 2/3 of US Debt? It won't magically disappear simply by replacing the currency, someone will have to pay. Somehow I really don't think your creditors are going to allow you to do that!

they just got another bunch of pre approved credit card offers in the mail .. they'll put it on those

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Today we have the expected turn up. Take it as a lesson, never go short when the market (any market) is at a low and creeps along there for a few days.

 

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A_Simple_Man
Today we have the expected turn up. Take it as a lesson, never go short when the market (any market) is at a low and creeps along there for a few days.

 

.

 

Are you sure?

 

"Commentator in tears at HSBC plunge

 

HONG KONG (AFP) - A veteran Hong Kong stock commentator burst into tears during a live television broadcast as she saw HSBC's shares plunge dramatically seconds before the end of Monday's trading. "

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...r51C1XiANrdEp3A

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Are you sure?

 

"Commentator in tears at HSBC plunge

 

HONG KONG (AFP) - A veteran Hong Kong stock commentator burst into tears during a live television broadcast as she saw HSBC's shares plunge dramatically seconds before the end of Monday's trading. "

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...r51C1XiANrdEp3A

 

 

That was Monday in Asia.

 

Now is Tuesday in Canada/US, Dow is up 300 points

 

Monday was just dull with sideways action, my first post was on Friday.

 

I believe HSBC is up 13 % today, I guess the Hong Kong stock commentator will laugh today.

 

I just looked at the HSBC chart, yes the stock plunged $1 just before the close but recovered right away. Man oh man, don't read that stuff. Those guys just screw you up.

 

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Edited by scianna54
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