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A Wet End to the Week. Flooding for Some?


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BossHog

Here's a pre-dawn Himawari shot of the archipelago.

 

Electric lights in Manila to the north; rain clouds in the south...

 

(notice the gray in the bottom-right corner)

 

 

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Edited by BossHog
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I'm not qualified to predict the rainfall as it crosses the Visayas tomorrow;   but I'm sure glad right now my house sits on a small hill.   Still if you all got family or peeps living in those co

We went brownout at 4pm Sunday and power just returned a few minutes ago. We had a floor freezer which was full of ice so we were able to keep the perishables on ice but by tomorrow afternoon all the

It is certainly wet and windy here in Day-asan. We moored the boat up close to the shore on a short line and anchor and dropped it's canopy due to the strong gusts, so now we just wait out the storm.

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colemanlee

Damn Boss, just looking at windy tv and it looks like your gonna catch some crap sometime Sunday morning..looks like we follow Sunday afternoon or evening

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BossHog

My normally lush green lawn, currently isn't

 

post-5791-0-30056000-1483751180_thumb.jpg

 

But this kind of weather does has a silver lining:

 

we get vagrant seabirds flying up the tidal river behind the house.

 

Have seen a few lesser frigatebirds (Fregata ariel) already this morning.

 

Nothing small about them though, these are one of the larger birds we see around here.

 

post-5791-0-25750600-1483751072_thumb.jpg

 

 

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Tullioz

The heaviest rains will definitely be falling north of what the models were showing earlier and since the heaviest rains usually fall north of a tropical system's center, it now it looks like Cebu may have some issues with flooding as well.

 

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NDRRMC1 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NO.3 AS OF 11PM, SATURDAY, JANUARY 8

 

Tropical Depression Auring has continued to move in the general direction of Surigao Provinces.

At 10PM today, the center of tropical depression Auring was estimated based on all available data @185km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

 

Forecast Positions: 

24 Hours: In the vicinity of Marihatag, Surigao del Sur.

48Hr: 115km west Northwest of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental.

72Hr: 70km East Northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

96Hr: 120km East of Pagasa island, Palawan.

120Hr: 120km Northeast of Pagasa Island, Palawan.

 

Signal #1:

Visayas -- Bohol,Siquijor, and Southern Leyte.

Mindanao-- Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte,Surigao del Sur,Surigao del Norte, including Siargao Island, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental,Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Davao del Norte, Northern Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within 300km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

Residents of areas with Signal No.1 and over the rest of Davao Region and of Northern Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

 

Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces between Sunday evening until Monday early morning.

 

Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

 

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Latest radar showing where the heavy rain is falling now as of the time of this post.

 

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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/#radar

 

Where the model shows the heavy rain during the day Sunday.

 

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https://www.windytv.com/?rain,8.804,124.893,7

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TequilaSunset

Here in Nor Cal we are going to get 4-8" of rain, rivers will definitely overflow their banks... from drought to flooding, feast or famine water wise.

 

Stay safe and dry all...

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easy44

Light showers in northwestern Leyte last night.  Overcast today with a few sprinkles.  Looks like the heavy rains pretty much bypassed us, or haven't hit yet.

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BossHog

Man, we're getting just soaked. Constant heavy downpour without interruption since 3 am.

 

Just moderate winds though. The coconuts palms are dancing and the banana trees are still fine.

 

Looks like DumaWeird will catch some of this rain come tomorrow.

 

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We're on that island just to the NW of that central white and black dot. Think we're almost off the scale for rainfall, lol.

 

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Detailed Pagasa weather bulletins here:

 

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins

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JamesMusslewhite

It is certainly wet and windy here in Day-asan. We moored the boat up close to the shore on a short line and anchor and dropped it's canopy due to the strong gusts, so now we just wait out the storm. We have plenty of provisions, water, batteries, etc. so we can weather both the storm and possible brownout. Growing up on the Texas Gulf Coast certainly teaches you the drill, so we are always in a state of preparedness especially being on a small island. We will get hammered by the winds a little and pelted with more rains but the landfall will be North of us and storm serge should be minimum at best as this is a small one and we will be on the backside of the headwinds. Just another day in paradise here in the land of the never ending Summer. :biggrin_01: 

 

I hope you guys who are North of us and in the path of the worst of this storm fair well. Remember It is always best to stay in place and just ride-out a storm at home if all together possible, and certainly try not to travel after dark. If your situated on really lowlands then seek higher ground as even a slight storm serge accompanied by heavy sustained rainfall can change your fortunes quickly once the flooding of lowlands begin and river banks begin to overflow. Use due diligence and by all means stay safe.  

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BossHog

I hope you guys who are North of us and in the path of the worst of this storm fair well.

 

 

Sounds like you're well prepared James (knew you would be).

 

There's really no threat from this storm (in my opinion) unless you're in a flood- or landslide -prone area.

 

As far as the path I think they're expecting landfall this evening or very early Monday in Surigao del Sur, so actually south of those of us in Surigao del Norte.

 

High tide's at 2:05 pm but my boat jetty in the river's already underwater (and so are my neighbors).

 

Think Butuan and Camiguin are next up for the heavy rains.

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shadow

Sounds like you're well prepared James (knew you would be).

 

There's really no threat from this storm (in my opinion) unless you're in a flood- or landslide -prone area.

 

As far as the path I think they're expecting landfall this evening or very early Monday in Surigao del Sur, so actually south of those of us in Surigao del Norte.

 

Think Butuan and Camiguin are next up for the heavy rains.

 

Latest track as of 11 am:

 

 

attachicon.giftrack (1).png

I suspect there will be a few new houseboats travelling the rivers hereabouts. Sendong got about 500 of them in this area, as people would not leave their homes.

 

After Sendong we were delivering food and blankets to victims. I heard of this lady holed up in a remote chapel who had lost her husband and 3 children (She had 9 children). We went to the chapel and this girl greeted us. I did not believe it was her at first because she looked much too young to be the mother of 9, and did not act as though she was upset. Well, it was her.

 

Turns out she and her husband had waited for the last minute to vacate. The hubby helped her and the older kids to the shore, then led the carabao to safety. Only then did he return to the house for the three younger children. 

 

The wife and older children waved as the hubby and three younger children floated on down the river in the house, never to be seen alive again.

Edited by shadow
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colemanlee

Steady but not hard rain here...windy tv shows some hard stuff coming but so far its just a normal day

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BossHog

Cagdiano out on Dinagat is reporting 295 mm of rain in the past 12 hours alone.

 

That's 11 and a half inches for you non-metric folk.

 

post-5791-0-24148800-1483848300_thumb.jpg

 

http://climatex.dost.gov.ph

Edited by BossHog
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Skywalker

It's been raining steadily here since this morning. Looks like it's here for the day. Not heavy at all, just relentless.

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JamesMusslewhite

Cagdiano out on Dinagat is reporting 295 mm of rain in the past 12 hours alone.

 

That's 11 and a half inches for you non-metric folk.

 

attachicon.gifCapture.JPG

 

http://climatex.dost.gov.ph

Everyone we know on Dinagat Island and our farm are safe. Our farm is located on high ground between the towns of Cagdiano and Cabunga-an on Dinagat Island and we have no standing structure yet built on our small beach lot in Tagbiriayan so all is well for us there. Here on this little island in Day-asan I have a small mountainous range and small islands between us and the open ocean which will help block us from most heavy winds, and our boat is already moored on the backside of this island so we will easily ride this one out. I will only need to walk out and get on the boat to bucket out the rainwater during the day and on through this evening to keep the boat motor from being submerged. Our little house here sits on the South side of the two story concrete structure of the lobster facility, this places the large two-story concrete structure between us and the open sea which will help prevent wind damage to the house. We also chose to build the nepa roof covering the facility between the first and second floor of the facility, so any wind damage should be held to a minimum if any. Tidal surge from a storm would be an issue but wave and wind damage would be minimum, so if we were hit by a big typhoon the house would have heavy water damage but should still remain standing. 

 

This Youtube video I shot just before we moved to this little island to start work on the facility. The workers were still finishing the construction on the little house. You can see by watching the video what the topography is here on the island in relationship to the mountain range and local islands. The little house faces South of the facility and the Surigao inlet to the Surigao Straights.

 

 

We are at the Northern most point of Mindanao. We are well shielded from most heavy winds from major storms but we have little protection from tidal surges and would have to evacuate to either Surigao City or to our farm on Dinagat Island which is an hour away by boat. If we were to be in the projected path of a big storm we could be completely packed, boat loaded and in route to safer ground within only a few hours. You can always just rebuild what is damaged and replace appliances and stuff left behind. We would only take that with is most important, most valued or irreplaceable so we can easily relocate with only a little warning in advance.

Edited by JamesMusslewhite
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BossHog

Please note the winds are only 20-25 knots this isn't any kind of typhoon and not even a tropical storm. But it sure is raining some!

 

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