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A Wet End to the Week. Flooding for Some?


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Tullioz

We had some flooding here in Davao already this week and I have been paying attention to the forecast models more than usual over the past few days. There has been an area of low pressure southeast of Mindanao that finally moved away yesterday, but another area of low pressure looks like it will take its place by the end of the week. This one looks stronger and looks like it will produce even more rain than the last one. Some earlier model runs had shown this reaching tropical storm strength, but the latest run backed off on that.

 

The latest model run shows much of eastern and northern Mindanao getting well over 10 inches of rain between now and Sunday with most of that falling on Friday or Saturday. Cebu also looks pretty wet with as much as 5 inches falling in the same period. Just something to keep an eye on especially in Mindanao. The Compostela Valley usually gets hit hard with flooding and mudslides in situations like this, so even though this will not be a very strong storm, it can still cause a lot of problems. 

 

post-15209-0-61935400-1483470288.jpg

https://www.windytv.com/?rainAccu,next6d,8.853,123.640,6

 

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colemanlee

Looks like the Boss is gonna get hammered

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Tullioz

The models this afternoon have really increased the amounts of rainfall expected over much of Mindanao. It still looks like Cebu will see some significant rain, but nothing too severe. 12 to 18 inches of rain over much of Mindanao could lead to some serious flooding though. Most of the rain still looks like it will fall on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Raifall totals predicted by the European Model

 

post-15209-0-52855200-1483515790.jpg

https://www.windytv.com/?rainAccu,next6d,9.411,125.046,7

 

The GFS is also in agreement that there will be a lot of rain in the coming days.

 

post-15209-0-82150500-1483515250.jpg

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php#

 

 

 

 

 

 

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cebubird

I have long appreciated and enjoyed your weather posts.---Politics---not so much

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RogerDuMond

It has rained here every day for the last 45 days, some days more than others. Thankfully most of it happens at night.

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Headshot

It has rained here every day for the last 45 days, some days more than others. Thankfully most of it happens at night.

 

I call it the "Camelot effect."

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Salty Dog

Send some my way to central Florida. We've pretty much had drought like conditions for the 2 years I've been here. We're lucky if it rains once a week. I think it's rained twice in the past 6 weeks...

 

Sent from my SM-T817V using Tapatalk

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Tullioz

The latest GFS brings this system back up to tropical storm strength just before making landfall in eastern Mindanao like it was showing a few days ago. Whether it becomes a tropical storm or not, there will be a lot of rain for much of Mindanao and the Visayas between now and Sunday. Flooding will no doubt be an issue in the coming days for many areas with the amounts of rainfall the models are projecting.

 

The European model shifted the heaviest rain a little further north and shows Cebu getting more than it did before. Still nothing like parts of northern Mindanao are expected to see though.

 

post-15209-0-47012500-1483642094_thumb.jpg

https://www.windytv.com/?2017-01-07-11,10.261,121.619,6

 

The GFS still shows eastern Mindanao getting the heaviest rainfall and that is probably the most likely scenario. 

 

post-15209-0-49459300-1483642545.jpg

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010512/gfs_apcpn_wpac_16.png

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shadow

It has rained here every day for the last 45 days, some days more than others. Thankfully most of it happens at night.

Been mostly sunny and clear down here. Bright and  sunny again this morning.

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Irenicus

It has rained here every day for the last 45 days, some days more than others. Thankfully most of it happens at night.

 

Have the goats been doing this as the sun starts to set?

 

 

post-14529-0-45235600-1483665177.jpg

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lolhahaha

Been clear here for most of two days and I hope it stays that way since we are having a terrace added to the house.

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BossHog

 

 

Looks like the Boss is gonna get hammered

 

Yeah, the rains are really starting to hit as of 5 pm.

 

Of course, the ground is already so saturated you can lose a slipper just walking across the grass.

 

 

Good updated (late Friday afternoon) summary here :

 

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2017/01/06/western-pacific-tropical-update-6-january-2017/

 

"Regardless of development, Invest 96W is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern Mindanao and central Visayas over the weekend with the threat of urban flash flooding, especially in areas prone to poor drainage. Rainfall rates of 100-150 mm per day is possible."

 

That's a ton of rain!

 

and the more technical analysis from the US Navy here:

 

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt

 

N.B. No typhoon expected.

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RogerDat

We are starting to get heavy rain in Cebu now, 930 pm.

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shadow

We are starting to get heavy rain in Cebu now, 930 pm.

Drizzling on and off here now, midnight.

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Tullioz

The latest satellite image is showing the area of consolidated thunderstorms north of what the models were showing earlier. This would mean that places like Cebu and Bohol will probably be seeing a lot more rain than what was earlier forecast by the models. Northern Mindanao still looks like there will be some very high rainfall totals as the models have shown all along.

 

post-15209-0-58459800-1483720940.jpg

 

 

 

 

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