Pman 4,755 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Philippines has around 100,000,000 people. USA has around 325,000,000. US Murder rate 16,000+ approx. 44 per day. (2011 figures) PH Murder rate 9000+ approx. 24 per day. (2011 figures) 9000/100,000,000 = .00009% ~ 1 in 10,000 chance of getting murdered in PH. 16,000/325,000,000 = .00005% ~ 1 in 20,000 chance of getting murdered in US. Move outside of big cities, don't get involved with drugs or gangs, and the percentage chance in either USA or PH drops to almost 0%. 5 Link to post Share on other sites
contraman 29,040 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 And your point is ? Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BossHog 39,474 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 There is almost zero percent chance of average person going to PH getting murdered in the PH so let's stop the fear. First time I've ever disagreed with you Pman. But i continue to respect your take on life. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Pman 4,755 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 (edited) First time I've ever disagreed with you Pman. But i continue to respect your take on life. That's cool I can agree to disagree. The Chance of being killed in the Philippines is 28/1,000,000 visitors, virtually identical to the chance of being killed going to Australia. Deadliest places Of those countries that have a significant number of inbound American visitors, the country with the highest rate of un-natural death by American travelers is Thailand. There have been 348 un-natural deaths since October 2002, but relatively few Americans visit the country. Vietnam, Costa Rica and the Philippines each have substantial American deaths relative to the number of visitors, three to four times more than Mexico, when adjusted for volume. Highest rate of un-natural death by popular destinations for Americans Number of American Deaths Reported since October 2002 | American visitors in 2014* | American Deaths Reported Annually/1,000,000 visitorsThailand 348 | 339,000 | 80.5 Vietnam 106 | 246,000 | 33.8 Costa Rica 339 | 862,000 | 30.8 Philippines 259 | 708,000 | 28.7 Australia 153 | 431,000 | 27.8 http://time.com/4250811/travel-safety/ So 28/1,000,000 would be 1/35,714 chance. Compare to other chances 1 in 35,714 looks pretty small: Heart Disease and Cancer 1 in 7 Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease 1 in 27 Intentional Self-harm 1 in 97 Unintentional Poisoning By and Exposure to Noxious Substances 1 in 103 Motor Vehicle Crash 1 in 113 Fall 1 in 133 Assault by Firearm 1 in 358 Pedestrian Incident 1 in 672 Motorcycle Rider Incident 1 in 948 Unintentional Drowning and Submersion 1 in 1,183 Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke 1 in 1,454 Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food 1 in 3,408 Pedacyclist Incident 1 in 4,337 Firearms Discharge 1 in 7,944 Air and Space Transport Incidents 1 in 9,737 Exposure to Excessive Natural Heat 1 in 10,784 Exposure to Electric Current, Radiation, Temperature and Pressure 1 in 14,695 Contact with Sharp Objects 1 in 30,860 Cataclysmic Storm 1 in 63,679 Contact with Hornets, Wasps and Bees 1 in 64,706 Contact with Heat and Hot Substances 1 in 69,169 Legal Execution 1 in 111,439 Being Bitten or Struck by a Dog 1 in 114,622 Lightning Strike 1 in 174,426 http://www.nsc.org/learn/safety-knowledge/Pages/injury-facts-chart.aspx So... I think the fear expressed by some is out of proportion. Fixed formatting, fixed error in math. Edited December 30, 2016 by Pman 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Sven 1,136 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The Chance of being killed in the Philippines is 28/1,000,000 visitors, virtually identical to the chance of being killed going to Australia.... So 28/1,000,000 would be 1/35,714 chance... Compare to other chances 1 in 35,714 looks pretty small:... So... I think the fear expressed by some is out of proportion. Fixed formatting, fixed error in math. Even after fixing the math, there is a problem with this use of statistics: You are comparing the risk of getting killed during ONE TRIP to the Philippines - possibly just a couple of weeks on average - with the risk of getting killed by other causes over a full lifetime. That's just wrong. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Sven 1,136 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The Time article referenced is interesting reading, though... It seems murder is a more common cause of death for travellers to the Philippines, than to most other places. Almost half of the unnatural deaths in the Philippines are homicides (plus possibly a few "suicides" and other events that have been misclassified....) In Thailand less than 10% of deaths are due to murder, but there are many more due to traffic accidents. I've just been there and can understand why: Better roads, higher speeds, but the same poor skills and attitudes as in RP. Anyway, it's somehow comforting to know that RP is overall far safer than Thailand - an otherwise somewhat comparable destination. Link to post Share on other sites
Jawny 4,619 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 That's cool I can agree to disagree. The Chance of being killed in the Philippines is 28/1,000,000 visitors, virtually identical to the chance of being killed going to Australia. So 28/1,000,000 would be 1/35,714 chance. Compare to other chances 1 in 35,714 looks pretty small: So... I think the fear expressed by some is out of proportion. Fixed formatting, fixed error in math. There are no statistics here which can be relied upon to make assessments such as these. Traffic fatalities as a simple example are frequently unreported here in the provinces. Very often the police will have no knowledge of the event, much less have a motivation to record the data. In the past several years I've seen or heard of at least a dozen traffic deaths just within five km of my home. None of them were reported. That is just the fatalities. The dozens of close calls or injuries also go unreported. So, if someone wants to say there are few traffic fatalities per so many people here, they'd be misguided. I recall a trip to Italy I made many years ago. Some friends dared me to try to walk into traffic in a crowded traffic circle. I took the dare and survived. The trick was, DONT LOOK AT THE CARS! The concept was that the drivers wou,d avoid an idiot who didn't see them. But, if you LOOKED, then they knew you saw them and common sense meant you would avoid walking in their path. Here, there is no such courtesy. If you walk in front of a bus, the only question is will the driver will run away or drive off to save being killed by the bystanders. He won't stop to avoid hitting you. Just last week a two year old child drowned in a nearby resort and there was no report to anyone except the funeral home. This was the third fatality I know of at the resort and I doubt there were any reports other than gossip. Incedenty, it is an enormously popular resort in spite of the deaths. All drownings which could have been prevented with just a simple life guard employed. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Sven 1,136 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 All drownings which could have been prevented with just a simple life guard employed. Or it could be prevented by parents, looking after their kids. 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Skywalker 19,177 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I used to live in Bangkok. There are a great many murders there. But unless it's a significant person, and/or the police are likely to make some money, then investigations just don't happen. It's really that simple. And really, all those foreigners who fall out of high buildings in Pattaya, are all suicides? Yeah okay. Statistics from the Kingdom are as reliable as statistics from this Republic. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
smokey 22,010 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 And your point is ? Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk His point is he is not here now and needs to find a way to dig at his home country.... and the so called murder rate is per country of per 100,000 people ... I have one more people die in china every day then people from mayberry RFD usa Link to post Share on other sites
smokey 22,010 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 There are no statistics here which can be relied upon to make assessments such as these. Traffic fatalities as a simple example are frequently unreported here in the provinces. Very often the police will have no knowledge of the event, much less have a motivation to record the data. In the past several years I've seen or heard of at least a dozen traffic deaths just within five km of my home. None of them were reported. That is just the fatalities. The dozens of close calls or injuries also go unreported. So, if someone wants to say there are few traffic fatalities per so many people here, they'd be misguided. I recall a trip to Italy I made many years ago. Some friends dared me to try to walk into traffic in a crowded traffic circle. I took the dare and survived. The trick was, DONT LOOK AT THE CARS! The concept was that the drivers wou,d avoid an idiot who didn't see them. But, if you LOOKED, then they knew you saw them and common sense meant you would avoid walking in their path. Here, there is no such courtesy. If you walk in front of a bus, the only question is will the driver will run away or drive off to save being killed by the bystanders. He won't stop to avoid hitting you. Just last week a two year old child drowned in a nearby resort and there was no report to anyone except the funeral home. This was the third fatality I know of at the resort and I doubt there were any reports other than gossip. Incedenty, it is an enormously popular resort in spite of the deaths. All drownings which could have been prevented with just a simple life guard employed. dang you sound like you live here..... I know of a guy who was shot a few years ago over jealously and it did not make the paper and police called it accidental as the shooter said he was only trying to scare the guy 1 Link to post Share on other sites
senseless 966 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 (edited) Philippines has around 100,000,000 people. USA has around 325,000,000. US Murder rate 16,000+ approx. 44 per day. (2011 figures) PH Murder rate 9000+ approx. 24 per day. (2011 figures) 9000/100,000,000 = .00009% ~ 1 in 10,000 chance of getting murdered in PH. 16,000/325,000,000 = .00005% ~ 1 in 20,000 chance of getting murdered in US. Move outside of big cities, don't get involved with drugs or gangs, and the percentage chance in either USA or PH drops to almost 0%. I would double check your facts, murder rates are usually in the per 100K population. Murder rate in my state is 3.6 per 100K which is 0.0036% -- Also, when you're doing division to calculate a percent you should move the decimal 2 points to the right. From 16K/325M the percent is 0.0049% -- Looks like you forgot to remove 2 zeros. The murder rate on average for the philippines is 9 per 100K population or 0.009%. That rate should hold true for 1M american visitors assuming that 1M of them spent 365 days in country. It would equal out to 90 americans being killed intentionally per year. If you assume that on average that 75% spent 30 days in country then that rate falls down to around 30 per year. Sounds about right. The philippines is 3x more dangerous for me to live in than kentucky. If I subselect the data for the municipality which I spend most of my time there it drops down to 0 because there hasn't been a murder there in like 10 years. Which makes this place infinitively more dangerous as you can't divide by zero. But yes, the philippines is much safer than some areas of the US and on average is only marginally more dangerous (1.3x) than the USA as a whole. IMO, not bad for a country known for the illegal manufacturing of weapons. As others say, you can't trust the statistics. There's all kinds of stuff that goes unreported here. This place reminds me of America in the 80s. It wouldn't surprise me if the murder rate here was actually closer to 15 per 100K. But I'd doubt it was higher than 15 per 100k which is still safer than some inner cities in the USA. Edited December 31, 2016 by senseless 4 Link to post Share on other sites
hyaku 2,829 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Philippines has around 100,000,000 people. USA has around 325,000,000. US Murder rate 16,000+ approx. 44 per day. (2011 figures) PH Murder rate 9000+ approx. 24 per day. (2011 figures) 9000/100,000,000 = .00009% ~ 1 in 10,000 chance of getting murdered in PH. 16,000/325,000,000 = .00005% ~ 1 in 20,000 chance of getting murdered in US. Move outside of big cities, don't get involved with drugs or gangs, and the percentage chance in either USA or PH drops to almost 0%. All very well but murder is NOT by chance. It's premeditated and usually has a reason. Your 'chances' of getting murdered drop rapidly if you don't give people a reason. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TheWhiteKnight 1,153 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 dang you sound like you live here..... I know of a guy who was shot a few years ago over jealously and it did not make the paper and police called it accidental as the shooter said he was only trying to scare the guy Did the guy leave? Link to post Share on other sites
Kreole 1,653 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On one level, I think the Philippines is a more dangerous place, even if you live in the province. An adolescent culture that demands an extreme reaction to the slightest or perceived criticism. That could be your neighbor who plays loud music or does other offensive acts who refuses to respond to your concerns, and who fails to respect your position and rights as a foreign or domestic contributing member of the barangay, So much for "zero chance" of getting killed living in the province. 5 Link to post Share on other sites
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