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In western leyte, it is sunny, calm, few clouds. Lawn mowing weather.

Dayum... I feel for everyone in it's way. There is never a good time for it to happen, but on Christmas?  Stay safe all...

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Tullioz

Nina is now officially a typhoon and expected to intensify quite a bit before making landfall. This advisory has the peak intensity reaching 115 knots or around 130 mph. That would put it just below super typhoon status. This storm would be the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane in the US if it were to reach that intensity.  Hopefully this storm will not end up being as strong as what is now being forecast. 
 

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A
NEWLY-FORMED 10-NM EYE (AS OF 23/1320Z). A 231235Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. TY NOCK-TEN REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES,
BASED ON THE IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE.
TY 30W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS WITH RI EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 06
TO 24 HOURS.

B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TY NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RI AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND AFTER TAU 36, AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN LUZON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR MANILA
AT TAU 72 OF ONLY 83-NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE DOMINANT NORTHEAST FLOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY (BUT REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT) AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

 
http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt

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Tullioz

Starting to look pretty healthy. It also appears to be moving more west than northwest already, so the track may end up a little further south than what is predicted.

 

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

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In western leyte, it is sunny, calm, few clouds. Lawn mowing weather.

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colemanlee

In western leyte, it is sunny, calm, few clouds. Lawn mowing weather.

Same in Eastern Leyte...got a few feeder bands yesterday but this morning is beautiful...just talked to a friend in Northern Samar..said clear there also for now

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mikewright

In western leyte, it is sunny, calm, few clouds. Lawn mowing weather.

 

Same in El Nido. But one of the island hopping tours, the El Nido tour "C", was cancelled this morning. People were told that the Coast Guard wouldn't permit this particular tour, whereas the other tours to islands closer to El Nido were allowed.

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http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/856212/closing-down-of-naia-runway-eyed-due-to-nina

 

 
Closing down of NAIA runway eyed due to ‘Nina’

The Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA) and the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) raised the possibility of closing down the runway of the country’s premier airport with Metro Manila in typhoon “Nina’s” (international name: Nock-Ten) path.

MIAA general manager Ed Monreal and CAAP director general Jim Sydiongco met on Satruday with airline operators to map out preparations for the typhoon which is expected to make landfall on Christmas Day.

The airport authority heads told airline firms to anticipate the closure of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) should Nina’s winds pick up at 50 knots (around 92.6 kilometers per hour).

 

They urged the airline operators to keep their passengers updated on the status of their flights and to make sure that their respective customer hotline numbers are available.

Sydiongco advised airlines to coordinate with other airport authorities and the Caap for aircraft parking. “With the expected path of typhoon Nina in Luzon, Clark (International Airport) is not an option for relocation or diversion. Necessarily airports down south like Cebu (Mactan-Cebu International Airport) and Puerto Princesa (International Airport), can serve as evacuation sites for aircraft.”

For his part, Monreal assured airlines that Miaa will suspend daily runway maintenance to give way to recovery flights.

He further encouraged airlines to carry out their established procedures and measures to ensure flight and passenger safety.

Typhoon Nina, with maximum sustained winds of 135 kph and gusts of up to 165 kph, is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes on Sunday and make a path through Luzon and the Visayas. RAM

 

 

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I guess there will be many more stranded passengers

 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/856221/typhoon-nina-strands-more-than-2300-passengers-in-bicol-ports

 

Typhoon Nina strands more than 2,300 passengers in Bicol ports

 

LEGAZPI CITY, Albay—More than 2,300 passengers who were rushing home for Christmas were stranded in ports of Bicol region due to Typhoon “Nina” (international name: Nock-Ten) as of Saturday morning.

Rachelle Miranda, information officer of Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Bicol, said as of 6 a.m., 2,212 were stranded in Sorsogon province while 52 were in Camarines Sur. At least 331 rolling cargoes and four motorbanca were also stranded.

Meanwhile, the OCD 5 is now on red alert status all over Bicol. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration predicted “Nina” to make landfall over Catanduanes on Sunday.

 

READ: ‘Nina’ intensifies into typhoon; Signal No. 1 up in 10 areas

Miranda said Saturday morning, the province of Albay and Camarines Sur will implement mandatory pre-emptive evacuation of families in living in areas prone to flooding, landslide and storm surge.

 

 

 

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Tullioz

The strength of this storm has come as a surprise to everyone I believe. Even yesterday there were no models showing it reaching super typhoon strength.  This is going to be a devastating storm for much of Bicol. I hope the people there have already made preparations for a storm packing 150 mph winds. It also appears now that it will remain at typhoon strength during its entire track through the Philippines. 

 

 TY 30W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND BY TAU 36 
THEN DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON THROUGH MANILA BEFORE EXITING INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). TY NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY 
UNDER SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS, PEAKING AT SUPER-TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
LAND. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EMERGE AT TYPHOON INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IN THE SCS BY TAU 60.  
 

 

 

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http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/856269/over-1-m-albay-villagers-to-be-evacuated-as-nina-threatens-bicol

 

 
Over 1-M Albay villagers to be evacuated as ‘Nina’ threatens Bicol

 

By: Mar S. Arguelles - Correspondent / @msarguellesINQ
Inquirer Southern Luzon / 03:44 PM December 24, 2016

 

LEGAZPI CITY – Albay Gov. Al Francis Bichara said that mandatory evacuation would be carried out on Sunday in all villages prone to flooding, landslide, mud/lahar flow, and storm surges as pre-emptive measure against Typhoon “Nina” (international name: Nock-ten).

Disaster authorities would be moving out 207,774 families or over a million people living in flood, landslide, lahar flow and storm surge prone areas in three cities and 15 towns in Albay.

Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) data indicate that there are 1,616 villages threatened by flooding, landslide, lahar flow and storm surge should “Nina” hit the province by Sunday.

 

PDRRMC data also shows that there are about 59,790 families living in low-lying villages at risk of flooding, 21,294 families in landslide areas, 34,631 families in lahar prone areas and 29,087 families in
coastal areas at risk of storm surges.

Bichara said some local MDRRMO have begun moving villagers to safer grounds as a preventive measure against the typhoon’s moderate to heavy rains and strong winds. He also directed the Department of Education (DepEd) to open safe school campuses for evacuation use.

Albay province was placed under “state of imminent disaster” to facilitate the use of the disaster calamity fund by local disaster councils on Friday. JE

 

 

 

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http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/856260/cancelled-flights-due-to-typhoon-nina

 

 
Cancelled flights due to typhoon ‘Nina’

 

INQUIRER.net / 01:57 PM December 24, 2016

 

Several domestic flights have been cancelled due to bad weather caused by typhoon “Nina” (international name: Nock-Ten).

Nina intensified into a typhoon on Saturday morning and is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes on Sunday, Christmas Day. Twelve areas were placed under Signal No. 1 in the latest advisory of the state weather bureau.

More than 2,300 passengers were stranded in ports in Bicol region. The local government of Camarines Sur also ordered preemptive evacuation of residents living in danger zones.

 

The following Cebu Pacific flights scheduled on Dec. 25, Sunday, have been cancelled:

  • DG6163/6164 Manila-Virac- Manila
  • DG6165/6166 Manila- Virac – Manila
  • 5J325/326 Manila-Legazpi- Manila
  • 5J327/328 Manila-Legazpi- Manila
  • DG6193/6194 Manila-Legazpi- Manila
  • DG6195/6196 Manila-Legazpi- Manila
  • DG6204/6205 Cebu-Legazpi-Cebu
  • DG6113/6114 Manila-Naga- Manila
  • DG6117/6118 Manila-Naga- Manila

Cebu Pacific said affected passengers may rebook their flight within 30 days from the original departure date or opt for fill refund or travel fund.

Charter airline Air Juan also announced the cancellation of the following flights on Monday, Dec. 26:

  • Subic-Manila
  • Manila-Subic
  • Manila-Puerto Galera
  • Puerto Galera-Manila
  • Manila-Boracay
  • Boracay-Manila
  • Manila-Busuanga
  • Busuanga-Manila

The airlines said affected guests may rebook their flights, refund airfare without penalties, or travel credits for future flights. JE

 

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http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/856287/signal-no-2-up-in-catanduanes-albay-sorsogon-n-samar

 

 
Signal No. 2 up in Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, N. Samar

INQUIRER.net / 05:44 PM December 24, 2016

 

Signal No. 2 was raised in four areas as Typhoon “Nina” (international name Nock-Ten) further intensified on Saturday afternoon, Christmas Eve.

 
Signal No. 2 was hoisted over Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon and Northern Samar, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
 
Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Island, Marinduque, Quezon as well as Polillo Island, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran and Northern part of Leyte were placed under Signal No. 1.
 
The typhoon packed maximum sustained winds of up to 175 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 215 kph.
 
Nina was last spotted 390 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, moving west northwest at 15 kph.
 
Nina kept its west northwest track and is forecast to make landfall over Catanduanes on Sunday, Christmas Day.
 
Stormy weather or moderate to heavy rains are expected over Metro Manila, Bicol, Calabarzon, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Marinduque, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro and Northern Samar by Sunday and Monday.
 
Storm surges of up t 2 meters is possible over the coastal areas of Quezon-Bicol and Samar.
 
Signal No. 1 may be raised over Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Batangas, Mindoro Provinces, Aurora, Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan, Aklan and Capiz at 8 p.m. Saturday.
 
Pagasa also warned of risky sea travel over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon./ac

 


 
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(CNN)A major typhoon is gaining strength as it draws closer to the Philippines, where it's expected to make landfall on Christmas Day.

Forecasters warned that Typhoon Nock-ten, also known as Typhoon Nina in the Philippines, could bring lashing winds and dump heavy rain through parts of the country, including the nation's capital, Manila..

With sustained winds reaching 205 kilometers per hour (127 mph) and gusts at 250 kilometers per hour (155 mph), Typhoon Nock-ten could reach super-typhoon status when it makes landfall, said CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam.

 

That means that sustained winds exceed 240 kilometers per hour (150 mph).

The typhoon is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours and make landfall over Catanduanes, the eastern island province, on Christmas afternoon or evening, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

As of Saturday local time, the storm was located approximately 880 kilometers east (475 nautical miles) east of Manila, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projected that the typhoon would gradually weaken "as the system begins to interact with land," but warned that it could still retain typhoon intensity.

The Philippines has been battered by devastating typhoons in recent years, most notably Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 -- considered to be among the strongest storms to make landfall. Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 6,000 people and forced nearly 4 million people from their homes.

Bracing for the storm

Typhoon Nock-ten is expected to approach with rain bands moving onshore, which could cause floods, landslides and storm surges. It is projected to pass through Southern Luzon and could go through Manila.

This could bring flooding to the densely populated urban center during a busy holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, authorities in the Philippines hoisted storm warnings over parts of eastern Philippines, including Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Sorsogon

Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), Northern Samar and Eastern Samar. PAGASA warned that the winds could damage structures.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/24/asia/typhoon-nock-ten-nina-philippines/

 

 

 

Stay safe all....

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