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In western leyte, it is sunny, calm, few clouds. Lawn mowing weather.

Dayum... I feel for everyone in it's way. There is never a good time for it to happen, but on Christmas?  Stay safe all...

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http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/854697/low-pressure-area-forecast-this-week

 
Low pressure area forecast this week

 

Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:16 AM December 19, 2016

A potential cyclone is headed our way on Christmas Day.

The weather bureau said a low pressure area might form over the Pacific Ocean later this week.

The low pressure area appears likely to intensify into a cyclone when it enters the Philippine area of responsibility this weekend, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

 

“By Wednesday to Friday, Dec. 21 to 23, a possible formation of a low pressure area over the Pacific” is expected, Pagasa said in its weekly weather outlook.

“This weather system will continue to move west northwestward and has a possibility to enter the Philippine area of responsibility and further intensify,” it added.

Pagasa said the country usually gets one to two cyclones in December but so far no cyclone has affected the country this month.

Last week, however, many parts of Luzon, particularly Bicol and nearby Samar provinces, experienced moderate to occasionally heavy rains. —DONA Z. PAZZIBUGAN

 

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Tullioz

It looks OK for Christmas!

 

If this latest run of the GFS is correct, this will not be a good Christmas at all for a lot of people in the Philippines. Everyone from Northern Mindanao to Southern Luzon should start paying attention to this next system and the path it may take. It looks like a potentially strong Typhoon may be making landfall somewhere in the Philippines just in time for Christmas.

 

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Tullioz

The headline in the article below should instead read "A Typhoon for Christmas?". With the country facing a possible typhoon within the next 72 hours, it seems PAGASA would want to give the people who may be affected a little more of a heads up. Below this article I have posted the latest image from the GFS which can be found at the link that Woolf provided. While a Typhoon with winds of 90mph as the model is currently showing would not be overly strong, the possibility of a typhoon of any strength making landfall this close to a major holiday when a lot of people will be traveling or making plans to travel should at least be mentioned this close to the event.  
 

Rainy Christmas? Tropical depression heads for PH
 
MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression will be named Nina when it enters PAR either Thursday night, December 22, or early Friday morning, December 23
 
It could be a rainy Christmas, with a tropical depression approaching the country.
 
State weather bureau PAGASA said on Wednesday, December 21, that a tropical depression is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) either Thursday night, December 22, or early Friday morning, December 23.
 
As of 4 pm on Wednesday, the tropical depression was 1,755 kilometers east of Mindanao, still too far to directly affect the country. It is moving west northwest at 23 kilometers per hour (km/h).
 
When it enters PAR, it will be given the local name Nina.
 
Right now, the tropical depression has maximum winds of up to 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
 
Initial forecast models show the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas could be affected. PAGASA is expected to release detailed updates as soon as the weather disturbance is already inside PAR.
 
In the meantime, light rain is expected in the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera, and Cagayan Valley on Thursday, still due to the northeast monsoon.
 
The rest of the country will have just isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
 
PAGASA also said coastal waters in Northern Luzon will be moderate to rough, with moderate to strong winds.
 
http://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/156226-20161221-tropical-depression-pagasa-forecast-rainy-christmas

 

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Edited by Tullioz
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Can a mod please change tittle of this thread to "Typhoon for Christmas?"

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May give troubles at manila airport also

 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/855627/nina-set-to-enter-par-passengers-warned-vs-trip-cancellations

 

 

‘Nina’ set to enter PAR; passengers warned vs trip cancellations
 

Tropical storm “Nina” is set to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, a few days before Christmas Day, the state weather bureau said.

In its 11 a.m. advisory, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Nina packed maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

The tropical storm was last plotted at 1,380 kilometers east of Mindanao as it moved west northwest at 23 kph.

 

In a press briefing, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council spokesperson Romina Marasigan said Nina may make landfall over Bicol on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

Marasigan said the weather disturbance will also affect Northern Samar, Calabarzon, Metro Manila, and parts of Region 1 and Central Luzon.

She also warned residents of the said areas against possible evacuation due to possible flash floods, landslides or lahar flow.

“Naka heightened alert na rin ang Department of Health (DOH) at Department of Public Works and Highways… Ang DOH ay ina-assure tayo na ang ating mga ospital ay handang tumanggap sa kung ano mang emergency,” Marasigan said.

“Napakahalaga na nandoon tayo sa pinakamataas na antas ng paghahanda para sa ating mga kababayan,” she added.

Marasigan advised passengers going home to the provinces for the Christmas holidays to coordinate with bus lines and sea lines due to possible cancellations of their trips.

“Inaasahan na ang mga pantalan, bus terminal ay maging handa sakaling may mastranded… Kung ang schedule ng tickets niyo ay Dec. 24, makipag-ugnayan na po kayo sa bus lines at sea lines. Baka magkaroon ng cancellations,” she added. RAM

 


 
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It doesn't look like Bicol will have a very merry Christmas...  :nea:

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Tullioz

The latest model run of the GFS has the storm a little stronger just before landfall with winds just over 100mph at the surface. Pretty safe to say at this point that a lot of people will be spending Christmas at the airports and ferry terminals this year. Hopefully the damage from strong winds and flooding will not be too intense in the areas that are affected. 

 

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‘Nina’ enters PAR, seen to make landfall on Christmas Day

 

INQUIRER.net / 07:22 AM December 23, 2016
nina-6am-12-23-620x325.png

This satellite image from Pagasa shows the location of severe tropical storm Nina (Nock-Ten) as of 6 a.m. on Friday.

 

Severe tropical storm Nina (international name: Nock-Ten) entered the Philippine area of responsibility early Friday, the state weather bureau said.

The storm, last located 960 kilometers east of Guian, Eastern Samar, will bring moderate to heavy rains within its 350-kilometer diameter, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services and Administration (Pagasa) said.

Nina packed maximum sustained winds of sustained winds of up to 95 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 120 kph.

 

The storm was earlier predicted to make landfall over Samar-Bicol area on Christmas Day.

The northeast monsoon, meanwhile, continued to affect northern Luzon

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms will be experienced over Eastern Visayas, Caraga and Davao Region, Pagasa said.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains is expected over the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan Valley.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. IDL

 
 

 

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