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Dafey

There is a sizable typhoon head towards SEA. It will head directly at the Philippines then it should turn north threatening Taiwan. Luzon will see the strongest affects in the Philippines but should only be strong winds and rain.

However, be prepared. Stock up on extra water, gas and canned food just in case. these things are unpredictable

Edited by Dafey
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Woolf

going to go north of philippines  (hmmm  could get close)

https://www.windy.com/?10.055,149.919,5

press the arrow to the bottom right 

Edited by Woolf
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BossHog

The latest from JTWC/ click image to enlarge:

wp2618.thumb.gif.05dd88d1c88bb22d7b78e431940cb104.gif

Guam is bracing for a direct hit.

Edited by BossHog
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CardiacKid
2 hours ago, BossHog said:

The latest from JTWC/ click image to enlarge:

wp2618.thumb.gif.05dd88d1c88bb22d7b78e431940cb104.gif

Guam is bracing for a direct hit.

We rode out a direct hit by a 160 mph typhoon on Guam in the late 80's. Almost no damage as they are prepared. 

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TequilaSunset

UGH... stay safe everyone, do what ya need to do! That map looks like it's going to hit the Phil's hard

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BossHog

Here's the projected track through Guam:

2033671645_nwsguam.thumb.jpg.f4c1d61b199009d416d6d302ff8c91f1.jpg

 

And a look at a very tight ensemble of models. Some forecasters are starting to think Hong Kong might come into play. Typhoon Mangkhut is only going to strengthen after it passes through the Marianas; currently projected to become a Super Typhoon.

MANGKHUT.thumb.PNG.edb5d31af7b1a57a0e9bc53ee3631e7c.PNG

 

 

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BossHog
15 hours ago, Dafey said:

It will head directly at the Philippines then it should turn north threatening Taiwan. Luzon will see the strongest affects in the Philippines but should only be strong winds and rain.

The latest from JMA at 11:45 Sunday morning has Mangkhut dropping a bit farther south than earlier projected:

1822-00.png.293818104223f84f488bc1b512fef5e0.png

 

JTWC does too:

wp2618.thumb.gif.24e43275c634aa21f840be8f4a571246.gif

 

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Dafey

While I gave you a 'Like' I'm not happy about that report though...these are highly unpredictable.

Looks like you'll be very safe Boss and I would think it's a good plan to head your way and drink on the pier while we watch the youngsters riding the storm surge.

 

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GBT62

erkkk I bought a return ticket for Thursday from AU to Cebu via Manila (of course).

 

Glad I have that travel insurance now ... 🙄

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BossHog
44 minutes ago, GBT62 said:

erkkk I bought a return ticket for Thursday from AU to Cebu via Manila (of course).

Judging by the time frame on this graphic, I'm guessing you'll be fine with your flight. That being said it is moving faster than predicted. I wouldn't worry about it but would stay tuned. 

Capture.thumb.JPG.8abe989a5db257a13cb2f890dc8803f8.JPG

 

 

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Dafey

 

Quote

Severe tropical storm to enter Philippines

MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Mangkhut continues to gather strength and is expected to hit Northern Luzon this weekend, the state weather bureau warned yesterday.

Ariel Rojas, weather forecaster at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said Mangkhut is expected to make landfall over the Cagayan-Batanes area on Saturday.

He said Mangkhut’s winds might reach 205 kilometers per hour before approaching the Philippine area of responsibility on Wednesday.

“As early as Thursday we will raise tropical cyclone warning signals over Northern Luzon and adjacent areas that could experience strong winds from Mangkhut,” Rojas said.

As of 3 p.m. yesterday, the eye of the storm was located at 3,075 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, packing winds of 120 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of 145 kph.

It was moving west-northwest at a speed of 35 kph.

Mangkhut was forecast to exit the Philippine area of responsibility on Saturday or Sunday.

In an interview early yesterday, PAGASA senior weather forecaster Gener Quitlong said Mangkhut may reach the strength of Typhoon Jebi (local name Maymay) which hit Japan last week.

Packing winds of 160 kph with gusts of up to 215 kph, Jebi whipped the cities of Kobe and Osaka and surrounding areas, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens of others.

PAGASA continued to warn against flooding and landslides in Northern Luzon due to a low-pressure area.

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Dafey

UPDATE...

 

Quote

Typhoon Mangkhut’s wrath battered Guam, now en route to PHL

The wrath of Typhoon Mangkhut as it hit the island of Guam has been caught on video.

Trees were seen almost uprooted by the strong winds and visibility was severely affected by the strong rains it brought.

Mangkhut is now moving in the Western Pacific Ocean towards the Philippines with winds of up to 140 kph and gustiness of 170 kph.

It is moving westward at 30 kph and is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

As it moves over the high seas, Mangkhut is expected to become even stronger before it enters the PAR.

It is expected to hit Cagayan and Batanes on Saturday.

Because of its wide circulation, Mangkhut is also seen to affect a huge portion of Luzon.

Mangkhut, which will be named Ompong when it enters PAR, expected to hit Cagayan and Batanes on Saturday. —NB, GMA News

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/national/typhoon-mangkhut’s-wrath-battered-guam-now-en-route-to-phl/ar-BBN8jBD?ocid=spartandhp

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Goetz1965

Yeah everyone - start to PANIC NOW - and dont use your brain to check forecast tracks ... 

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Dafey
55 minutes ago, Goetz1965 said:

Yeah everyone - start to PANIC NOW - and dont use your brain to check forecast tracks ... 

Thanks for that brilliant observation.

For those of you that don't have Goetz's crystal ball...Typhoons and Hurricanes are highly unpredictable. A mere 2 degree shift in direction can place the storm  100 miles off it's original predicted course. While modern technology and experience has enabled much better tracking, anything can happen. I have seen these things turn 180 degrees unexpectedly.

There is no shame nor extra cost in being prepared. You are going to use the extra water, gas and canned goods eventually anyway. But, if it hits harder than expected you'll be comfortable. Please buy a little extra so you can feed Goetz...I'm sure he means well.

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